ScoreProb
1 Lyga Lithuania Round 30 2026

Neptūną Klaipėda vs Dainava

Neptūną Klaipėda Home · Elo 1,587
Sat 7 Nov
UTC
Not started
Dainava Away · Elo 1,498
Venue to be confirmed Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Neptūną Klaipėda win
Neptūną Klaipėda winPick
40.0%
Draw
24.3%
Dainava win
35.6%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Lineups · not provided for this competition by our data source
Live score and events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Live stats · not provided for this competition by our data source
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes54.7%
No45.3%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.558.0%
Under 2.542.0%

How much we know

Neptūną Klaipėda history58 matches
Dainava history60 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 3 h ahead
    1 Nov · 08:41 UTC
  2. Re-published 11 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 4 Nov · 07:21 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    7 Nov · 12:00 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 40–49% band (40.0%). Picks in that band won 45.4% of the time, and the model said 44.8% on average, over 6,162 matches.

Why Neptūną Klaipėda are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • Neptūną Klaipėda are rated 89 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,587 against 1,498. On rating alone Neptūną Klaipėda would be expected to take 62% of the points on offer.

  • Neptūną Klaipėda score more

    1.72 goals a game over 58 matches for Neptūną Klaipėda, against 1.17 over 60 for Dainava.

  • Neptūną Klaipėda concede fewer

    Neptūną Klaipėda concede 1.02 a game, Dainava 1.73.

  • Both teams play a similar number of high-scoring games

    53% of Neptūną Klaipėda matches, against 53% for Dainava. The model puts this match at 58% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 22 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Neptūną Klaipėda
Dainava
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1586.7
ELO
1498.2
58
ELO · Matches
60
1586.7
Current Team ELO
1498.2
1498.2
Current Opponent ELO
1586.7
88.55
Current ELO Difference
-88.55
0.62
Expected score
0.38
58
History Matches
60
0.07
Residual Mean
0.01
55.06
Overperformance
50.94
0.00
Recent 10 Residual Mean
0.38
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
1.80
PPG
1.80
1.00
Goals for per game
1.40
1.40
Goals against per game
0.80
60.0%
Win rate
40.0%
10
Matches
10
1.90
PPG
2.20
1.40
Goals for per game
1.70
1.20
Goals against per game
0.50
60.0%
Win rate
60.0%
1.40
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.70
1.02
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.35
1.20
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
0.50
1.17
Recent 10 Conceded Std
0.50
0.82
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.61
1.94
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.47
Overall performance9 signals
90
58
Matches
60
1.95
PPG
1.02
60.3%
Win rate
25.0%
13.8%
Draw rate
26.7%
25.9%
Loss rate
48.3%
70.7%
Over 1.5 rate
86.7%
53.4%
Over 2.5 rate
53.3%
32.8%
Over 3.5 rate
31.7%
1.91
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.19
Venue performance10 signals
100
28
Matches
27
1.86
PPG
0.93
57.1%
Win rate
22.2%
14.3%
Draw rate
25.9%
28.6%
Loss rate
51.9%
67.9%
Over 1.5 rate
88.9%
46.4%
Over 2.5 rate
55.6%
17.9%
Over 3.5 rate
37.0%
1.94
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.23
28
History Matches
27
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
1.72
Goals for per game
1.17
74.1%
Scoring rate
68.3%
41.4%
BTTS rate
51.7%
1.36
Goals for per game
1.26
67.9%
Scoring rate
74.1%
32.1%
BTTS rate
55.6%
1.29
Goals for per game
1.65
71.4%
Scoring rate
85.0%
42.9%
BTTS rate
50.0%
58
History Matches
60
1.72
Goals Mean
1.17
1.45
Goals Std
1.27
74.1%
Scored 1+ rate
68.3%
51.7%
Scored 2+ rate
28.3%
29.3%
Scored 3+ rate
10.0%
1.36
Venue Goals Mean
1.26
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
1.02
Goals against per game
1.73
60.3%
Conceding rate
78.3%
0.93
Goals against per game
1.81
53.6%
Conceding rate
74.1%
1.24
Goals against per game
0.95
66.7%
Conceding rate
50.0%
58
History Matches
60
1.02
Conceded Mean
1.73
1.09
Conceded Std
1.41
25.9%
Conceded 2+ rate
53.3%
12.1%
Conceded 3+ rate
26.7%
0.93
Venue Conceded Mean
1.81
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
39.7%
Clean-sheet rate
21.7%
25.9%
Failed-to-score rate
31.7%
46.4%
Clean-sheet rate
25.9%
32.1%
Failed-to-score rate
25.9%
33.3%
Clean-sheet rate
50.0%
28.6%
Failed-to-score rate
15.0%
39.7%
Clean-sheet rate
21.7%
25.9%
Failed-to-score rate
31.7%
46.4%
Clean-sheet rate
25.9%
32.1%
Failed-to-score rate
25.9%
39.7%
Clean-sheet rate
21.7%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
58
History Matches
60
0.84
Result entropy
0.96
1.91
Goal Difference Std
2.19
15.55
Stability score
4.38
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
57
Eligible Matches
60
27
Lead Matches
16
92.6%
Lead Win Rate
56.3%
0.95
Lead Points Retention
0.67
10
Trailing Matches
22
20.0%
Non-loss rate
9.1%
20.0%
Trailing Win Rate
4.5%
Goal timing5 signals
50
57
Halftime Coverage Matches
60
0.95
First Half Goals For Mean
0.47
0.37
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.62
0.79
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.70
0.67
Second Half Goals Against Mean
1.12
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
77.00
Rest days
77.00
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
2
Short Rest History Matches
2
1.50
Short Rest Points Per Match
1.50
28
Normal Rest History Matches
39
2.07
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.00
27
Long Rest History Matches
18
1.81
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.06
Competition & season17 signals
170
21
Matches
20
1.81
PPG
1.80
57.1%
Win rate
50.0%
9.5%
Draw rate
30.0%
33.3%
Loss rate
20.0%
66.7%
Over 1.5 rate
75.0%
57.1%
Over 2.5 rate
50.0%
28.6%
Over 3.5 rate
30.0%
1.76
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.65
21
Current Competition Matches
20
1.81
Current Competition PPG
1.80
0.05
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
0.70
7
Competition Season Count
5
2
Eligible Competition Season Count
3
0.21
Portability PPG Std
0.76
0.42
Portability PPG Range
1.82
70.23
Portability Score
39.57
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
58
Clean History Matches
60
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
ELO88.55
PPG0.93
GF0.56
GA-0.72
PPG0.01
PPG0.93
PPG0.00
PPG-0.30
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches-2
Clean-sheet rate18.0%
Failed-to-score rate-0.06
History Matches1
Clean-sheet rate20.5%
Failed-to-score rate6.2%
History Matches-2
Goals Mean0.56
Goals Std0.18
Scored 1+ rate5.8%
Scored 2+ rate23.4%
Scored 3+ rate19.3%
Venue Goals Mean0.10
Recent 10 Goals Mean-0.30
Recent 10 Goals Std-0.33
History Matches-2
Conceded Mean-0.72
Conceded Std-0.32
Clean-sheet rate18.0%
Conceded 2+ rate-0.27
Conceded 3+ rate-0.15
Venue Conceded Mean-0.89
Recent 10 Conceded Mean0.70
Recent 10 Conceded Std0.67
History Matches-2
Result entropy-0.11
Goal Difference Std-0.27
Stability score11.16
Recent 10 Result Entropy0.20
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std0.47
Eligible Matches-3
Lead Matches11
Lead Win Rate36.3%
Lead Points Retention0.28
Trailing Matches-12
Non-loss rate10.9%
Trailing Win Rate15.5%
Halftime Coverage Matches-3
First Half Goals For Mean0.48
First Half Goals Against Mean-0.25
Second Half Goals For Mean0.09
Second Half Goals Against Mean-0.45
Current Competition Matches1
Current Competition PPG0.01
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean-0.65
Competition Season Count2
Eligible Competition Season Count-1
Portability PPG Std-0.55
Portability PPG Range-1.40
Portability Score30.66
Rest days0.00
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches0
Short Rest Points Per Match0.00
Normal Rest History Matches-11
Normal Rest Points Per Match1.07
Long Rest History Matches9
Long Rest Points Per Match0.76
Current Team ELO88.55
Current Opponent ELO-88.55
Current ELO Difference177.1
Expected score0.25
History Matches-2
Residual Mean0.06
Overperformance4.12
Recent 10 Residual Mean-0.37

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Neptūną Klaipėda

L
Kauno Žalgiris II2–0Neptūną Klaipėda30 Oct · away
Pick: Neptūną Klaipėda 54% · missed
L
Neptūną Klaipėda0–2Ekranas24 Oct · home
Pick: Neptūną Klaipėda 74% · missed
L
Be1 NFA2–0Neptūną Klaipėda16 Oct · away
Pick: Be1 NFA 45% · hit
W
Neptūną Klaipėda3–1Atmosfera29 Aug · home
Pick: Neptūną Klaipėda 51% · hit
Earlier results appear as match history is added

Dainava

W
FA Šiauliai II0–4Dainava1 Nov · away
Pick: Dainava 63% · hit
L
Dainava0–1Kauno Žalgiris II25 Oct · home
Pick: Dainava 69% · missed
W
Ekranas1–3Dainava16 Oct · away
Pick: Dainava 69% · hit
L
Minija3–2Dainava1 Sep · away
Pick: Minija 39% · hit
Earlier results appear as match history is added

About this match

Neptūną Klaipėda and Dainava meet in 1 Lyga on Saturday 7 November 2026, kickoff 12:00 UTC. ScoreProb published its prediction on 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC: Neptūną Klaipėda win 40.0%, draw 24.3%, Dainava win 35.6%. The pick is Neptūną Klaipėda win. Over 2.5 goals: 58.0%. Both teams to score: 54.7%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.