Kairat U19 vs MTK U19
Kairat U19
Full time
2–2
Half time 0–0
Wed 4 Nov · 09:00 UTC
MTK U19
What we said before kickoff Result: Draw
Kairat U19 winPick
56.6%
Draw Result
19.5%
MTK U19 win
23.9%
How our picks did
Based on the final score. It joins the public record at the next nightly settlement.
Match result
Our pickKairat U19 win · 56.6%
What happenedDraw · we gave it 19.5%
Missed Over 2.5 goals
Our pickOver · 65.4%
What happenedOver · 4 goals
Hit Both teams to score
Our pickYes · 59.2%
What happenedYes · 2–2
Hit How surprising was it?
Result: Draw. In our numbers it ranked third of the three.
19%
chance we gave it0%50%100%
1 in 5.1
on average A pick at 57% is expected to miss about 4 times in 10. One match does not judge a model. The record across every settled match does.
See the full record
Timeline
Newest at the bottom
Yellow cardD. Orynbassar
12' Yellow cardM. Abish
40' 43'
Yellow cardO. Zsampar
46'
SubstitutionO. Zsampar off · M. Zsitnai on
SubstitutionD. Orynbassar off · Y. Petrik on
46' 51'
Yellow cardD. Varga
GoalD. Tashpulatov · assist M. Abish
53' 54'
SubstitutionD. Varga off · V. Gorog on
GoalK. Malayev
57' 59'
SubstitutionB. Szendrei off · A. Kis on
SubstitutionA. Toleukhan off · A. Zhilkaidar on
63' SubstitutionM. Abish off · R. Chernomorets on
63' 72'
SubstitutionM. Toth off · A. Angyal Valentin on
Yellow cardA. Zhilkaidar
72' SubstitutionK. Malayev off · D. Darkhan on
78' 81'
GoalP. Molnar
83'
GoalK. Onder
85'
Yellow cardA. Horvath
SubstitutionY. Kerimkhan off · M. Amrenov on
90+3' 90+4'
Yellow cardA. Kis
Yellow cardD. Darkhan
90+5' Lineups
Published about an hour before kickoff
Lineups are not out yet. They usually appear about an hour before kickoff, where the competition provides them. The prediction does not use lineups.
Match stats
Kairat U19 left, MTK U19 right
Match statistics are not provided for this competition by our data source.
Both teams to score
Yes59.2%
No40.8%
Total goals · 2.5
Over 2.565.4%
Under 2.534.6%
How much we know
Kairat U19 history6 matches
MTK U19 history0 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news
Your calls on this match
Made on this device before kickoff, compared with the result.
Life of this match
Every step is time-stamped, from first prediction to settled result.
- Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 0 h ahead29 Oct · 08:38 UTC
- Re-published 16 more timesThe numbers did not changeLatest 2 Nov · 18:58 UTC
- Kickoff4 Nov · 09:00 UTC
- Full time: 2–2Two of our three picks hit
- Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC
Share this result
A picture made for this match: teams, our probabilities and the verified stamp. Works in chats and on social.
The card keeps the pre-match numbers. A miss is shared as plainly as a hit.
How reliable are picks like this?
Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 50–59% band (56.6%). Picks in that band won 55.8% of the time, and the model said 54.4% on average, over 3,719 matches.
Why Kairat U19 are the pick
Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.
-
MTK U19 are rated 26 Elo points higher
Elo 1,500 against 1,474. On rating alone MTK U19 would be expected to take 54% of the points on offer.
These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.
Compare the two teams
Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.
Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Kairat U19
MTK U19
ELO & ratings10 signals 100
1474.1
ELO
1500.0
6
ELO · Matches
0
1474.1
Current Team ELO
1500.0
1500.0
Current Opponent ELO
1474.1
-25.92
Current ELO Difference
25.92
0.46
Expected score
0.54
6
History Matches
0
-0.21
Residual Mean
—
45.05
Overperformance
—
-0.21
Recent 10 Residual Mean
—
Recent form16 signals 160
5
Matches
0
0.80
PPG
—
1.20
Goals for per game
—
2.40
Goals against per game
—
20.0%
Win rate
—
6
Matches
0
0.67
PPG
—
1.33
Goals for per game
—
2.50
Goals against per game
—
16.7%
Win rate
—
1.33
Recent 10 Goals Mean
—
0.75
Recent 10 Goals Std
—
2.50
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
—
1.26
Recent 10 Conceded Std
—
0.79
Recent 10 Result Entropy
—
1.77
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
—
Overall performance9 signals 90
6
Matches
0
0.67
PPG
—
16.7%
Win rate
—
16.7%
Draw rate
—
66.7%
Loss rate
—
100.0%
Over 1.5 rate
—
83.3%
Over 2.5 rate
—
66.7%
Over 3.5 rate
—
1.77
Goal difference · Standard deviation
—
Venue performance10 signals 100
3
Matches
0
1.00
PPG
—
33.3%
Win rate
—
0.0%
Draw rate
—
66.7%
Loss rate
—
100.0%
Over 1.5 rate
—
66.7%
Over 2.5 rate
—
66.7%
Over 3.5 rate
—
2.16
Goal difference · Standard deviation
—
3
History Matches
0
Scoring & attack16 signals 160
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals for per gameScoring rateBTTS rate
1.33
Goals for per game
—
83.3%
Scoring rate
—
66.7%
BTTS rate
—
1.33
Goals for per game
—
100.0%
Scoring rate
—
66.7%
BTTS rate
—
6
History Matches
0
1.33
Goals Mean
—
0.75
Goals Std
—
83.3%
Scored 1+ rate
—
50.0%
Scored 2+ rate
—
0.0%
Scored 3+ rate
—
1.33
Venue Goals Mean
—
Defense & conceding12 signals 120
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals against per gameConceding rate
2.50
Goals against per game
—
83.3%
Conceding rate
—
2.33
Goals against per game
—
66.7%
Conceding rate
—
6
History Matches
0
2.50
Conceded Mean
—
1.26
Conceded Std
—
83.3%
Conceded 2+ rate
—
66.7%
Conceded 3+ rate
—
2.33
Venue Conceded Mean
—
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals 110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Clean-sheet rateFailed-to-score rate
16.7%
Clean-sheet rate
—
16.7%
Failed-to-score rate
—
33.3%
Clean-sheet rate
—
0.0%
Failed-to-score rate
—
16.7%
Clean-sheet rate
—
16.7%
Failed-to-score rate
—
33.3%
Clean-sheet rate
—
0.0%
Failed-to-score rate
—
16.7%
Clean-sheet rate
—
Volatility & stability4 signals 40
6
History Matches
0
0.79
Result entropy
—
1.77
Goal Difference Std
—
21.03
Stability score
—
Halftime resilience7 signals 70
6
Eligible Matches
0
2
Lead Matches
0
50.0%
Lead Win Rate
—
0.67
Lead Points Retention
—
4
Trailing Matches
0
0.0%
Non-loss rate
—
0.0%
Trailing Win Rate
—
Goal timing5 signals 50
6
Halftime Coverage Matches
0
0.50
First Half Goals For Mean
—
1.67
First Half Goals Against Mean
—
0.83
Second Half Goals For Mean
—
0.83
Second Half Goals Against Mean
—
Rest & schedule9 signals 90
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Short Rest Points Per MatchNormal Rest Points Per Match
330.1
Rest days
—
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
0
Short Rest History Matches
0
0
Normal Rest History Matches
0
5
Long Rest History Matches
0
0.80
Long Rest Points Per Match
—
Competition & season17 signals 170
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin rateDraw rateLoss rateOver 1.5 rateOver 2.5 rateOver 3.5 rateGoal difference · Standard deviationCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference MeanPortability PPG StdPortability PPG RangePortability Score
0
Matches
0
0
Current Competition Matches
0
1
Competition Season Count
0
1
Eligible Competition Season Count
0
Odds & market11 signals 110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal 10
6
Clean History Matches
0
Matchup differences86 signals 086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGGFGAPPGPPGPPGPPGWin ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scoreClean-sheet rateFailed-to-score rateClean-sheet rateFailed-to-score rateGoals MeanGoals StdScored 1+ rateScored 2+ rateScored 3+ rateVenue Goals MeanRecent 10 Goals MeanRecent 10 Goals StdConceded MeanConceded StdClean-sheet rateConceded 2+ rateConceded 3+ rateVenue Conceded MeanRecent 10 Conceded MeanRecent 10 Conceded StdResult entropyGoal Difference StdStability scoreRecent 10 Result EntropyRecent 10 Goal Difference StdLead Win RateLead Points RetentionNon-loss rateTrailing Win RateFirst Half Goals For MeanFirst Half Goals Against MeanSecond Half Goals For MeanSecond Half Goals Against MeanCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference MeanPortability PPG StdPortability PPG RangePortability ScoreRest daysShort Rest Points Per MatchNormal Rest Points Per MatchLong Rest Points Per MatchResidual MeanOverperformanceRecent 10 Residual Mean
ELO-25.92
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches6
History Matches3
History Matches6
History Matches6
History Matches6
Eligible Matches6
Lead Matches2
Trailing Matches4
Halftime Coverage Matches6
Current Competition Matches0
Competition Season Count1
Eligible Competition Season Count1
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches0
Normal Rest History Matches0
Long Rest History Matches5
Current Team ELO-25.92
Current Opponent ELO25.92
Current ELO Difference-51.84
Expected score-0.07
History Matches6
Latest results, with our pick
Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.
Kairat U19
W
MTK U191–3Kairat U1928 Oct · away
Pick: Kairat U19 41% · hit W
Kairat U198–1Mladost DG U1914 Oct · home
Pick: Kairat U19 57% · hit Earlier results appear as match history is added
MTK U19
L
MTK U191–3Kairat U1928 Oct · home
Pick: Kairat U19 41% · hit Earlier results appear as match history is added
Match report
Kairat U19 and MTK U19 finished 2–2 in UEFA Youth League on Wednesday 4 November 2026. It was 0–0 at half time. ScoreProb published its prediction on 29 Oct, 08:38 UTC, before kickoff: Kairat U19 win 56.6%, draw 19.5%, MTK U19 win 23.9%. Two of the three picks hit.
Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.