Kaizer Chiefs vs Siwelele
Match result probability Model pick: Kaizer Chiefs win
Kaizer Chiefs winPick
59.1%
Draw
29.4%
Siwelele win
11.5%
At kickoff this becomes the match centre
Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.
Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Lineups · on the pitch, about an hour before kickoff
Live stats · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect
Both teams to score
Yes44.6%
No55.4%
Total goals · 2.5
Over 2.541.5%
Under 2.558.5%
How much we know
Kaizer Chiefs history68 matches
Siwelele history36 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news
Your call
Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.
Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score
Match result: ours Kaizer Chiefs
Over / under 2.5: ours Under
Both teams to score: ours No
Life of this match
One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.
- Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 5 d 8 h ahead1 Nov · 08:14 UTC
- Re-published 11 more timesThe numbers did not changeLatest 4 Nov · 06:57 UTC
- Lineups appearAbout an hour before kickoff, where the competition provides them. This prediction does not use lineups.≈ 16:00 UTC
- KickoffThis page becomes the match centre6 Nov · 17:00 UTC
- Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
- Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC
How reliable are picks like this?
Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 50–59% band (59.1%). Picks in that band won 55.8% of the time, and the model said 54.4% on average, over 3,719 matches.
Why Kaizer Chiefs are the pick
Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.
-
Kaizer Chiefs are rated 83 Elo points higher
Elo 1,574 against 1,491. On rating alone Kaizer Chiefs would be expected to take 62% of the points on offer.
-
Kaizer Chiefs score more
1.13 goals a game over 68 matches for Kaizer Chiefs, against 0.78 over 36 for Siwelele.
-
Kaizer Chiefs concede fewer
Kaizer Chiefs concede 0.84 a game, Siwelele 1.00.
-
Kaizer Chiefs games more often go over 2.5 goals
35% of Kaizer Chiefs matches, against 14% for Siwelele. The model puts this match at 42% for over 2.5.
These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.
Compare the two teams
Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.
Match history used: up to 26 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Siwelele@include('fixtures.partials.crest', ['team' => $away, 'size' => 'sm', 'lazy' => true])
ELO & ratings10 signals 100
1574.0
ELO
1490.8
68
ELO · Matches
36
1574.0
Current Team ELO
1490.8
1490.8
Current Opponent ELO
1574.0
83.16
Current ELO Difference
-83.16
0.62
Expected score
0.38
68
History Matches
36
0.05
Residual Mean
-0.01
54.17
Overperformance
49.30
-0.02
Recent 10 Residual Mean
-0.01
Recent form16 signals 160
5
Matches
5
1.40
PPG
0.60
1.40
Goals for per game
1.00
1.00
Goals against per game
1.60
40.0%
Win rate
0.0%
10
Matches
10
1.40
PPG
1.10
1.10
Goals for per game
1.40
0.90
Goals against per game
1.70
40.0%
Win rate
20.0%
1.10
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.40
0.94
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.20
0.90
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.70
0.70
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.95
0.96
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.94
1.40
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.35
Overall performance9 signals 90
68
Matches
36
1.56
PPG
1.11
42.6%
Win rate
22.2%
27.9%
Draw rate
44.4%
29.4%
Loss rate
33.3%
57.4%
Over 1.5 rate
50.0%
35.3%
Over 2.5 rate
13.9%
14.7%
Over 3.5 rate
13.9%
1.40
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.18
Venue performance10 signals 100
34
Matches
18
1.71
PPG
0.56
47.1%
Win rate
5.6%
29.4%
Draw rate
38.9%
23.5%
Loss rate
55.6%
61.8%
Over 1.5 rate
55.6%
38.2%
Over 2.5 rate
11.1%
17.6%
Over 3.5 rate
11.1%
1.54
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.17
34
History Matches
18
Scoring & attack16 signals 160
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals for per gameScoring rateBTTS rate
1.13
Goals for per game
0.78
72.1%
Scoring rate
50.0%
42.6%
BTTS rate
30.6%
1.26
Goals for per game
0.56
79.4%
Scoring rate
27.8%
44.1%
BTTS rate
22.2%
68
History Matches
36
1.13
Goals Mean
0.78
1.04
Goals Std
0.97
72.1%
Scored 1+ rate
50.0%
25.0%
Scored 2+ rate
19.4%
11.8%
Scored 3+ rate
5.6%
1.26
Venue Goals Mean
0.56
Defense & conceding12 signals 120
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals against per gameConceding rate
0.84
Goals against per game
1.00
55.9%
Conceding rate
61.1%
0.85
Goals against per game
1.39
52.9%
Conceding rate
72.2%
68
History Matches
36
0.84
Conceded Mean
1.00
0.92
Conceded Std
1.27
22.1%
Conceded 2+ rate
25.0%
4.4%
Conceded 3+ rate
2.8%
0.85
Venue Conceded Mean
1.39
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals 110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Clean-sheet rateFailed-to-score rate
44.1%
Clean-sheet rate
38.9%
27.9%
Failed-to-score rate
50.0%
47.1%
Clean-sheet rate
27.8%
20.6%
Failed-to-score rate
72.2%
44.1%
Clean-sheet rate
38.9%
27.9%
Failed-to-score rate
50.0%
47.1%
Clean-sheet rate
27.8%
20.6%
Failed-to-score rate
72.2%
44.1%
Clean-sheet rate
38.9%
Volatility & stability4 signals 40
68
History Matches
36
0.98
Result entropy
0.97
1.40
Goal Difference Std
1.18
1.73
Stability score
3.44
Halftime resilience7 signals 70
68
Eligible Matches
36
19
Lead Matches
11
78.9%
Lead Win Rate
45.5%
0.84
Lead Points Retention
0.64
10
Trailing Matches
7
20.0%
Non-loss rate
0.0%
10.0%
Trailing Win Rate
0.0%
Goal timing5 signals 50
68
Halftime Coverage Matches
36
0.50
First Half Goals For Mean
0.47
0.37
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.42
0.63
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.31
0.47
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.58
Rest & schedule9 signals 90
83.17
Rest days
72.98
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
5
Short Rest History Matches
3
2.20
Short Rest Points Per Match
0.33
42
Normal Rest History Matches
18
1.52
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.11
20
Long Rest History Matches
14
1.40
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.14
Competition & season17 signals 170
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin rateDraw rateLoss rateOver 1.5 rateOver 2.5 rateOver 3.5 rateGoal difference · Standard deviationCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference Mean
0
Matches
0
0
Current Competition Matches
0
10
Competition Season Count
4
5
Eligible Competition Season Count
2
0.73
Portability PPG Std
0.37
2.20
Portability PPG Range
0.73
40.70
Portability Score
57.69
Odds & market11 signals 110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal 10
68
Clean History Matches
36
Matchup differences86 signals 086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scoreCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference Mean
ELO83.16
PPG0.45
GF0.35
GA-0.16
PPG1.15
PPG0.80
PPG0.30
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches32
Clean-sheet rate5.2%
Failed-to-score rate-0.22
History Matches16
Clean-sheet rate19.3%
Failed-to-score rate-0.52
History Matches32
Goals Mean0.35
Goals Std0.07
Scored 1+ rate22.1%
Scored 2+ rate5.6%
Scored 3+ rate6.2%
Venue Goals Mean0.71
Recent 10 Goals Mean-0.30
Recent 10 Goals Std-0.26
History Matches32
Conceded Mean-0.16
Conceded Std-0.35
Clean-sheet rate5.2%
Conceded 2+ rate-0.03
Conceded 3+ rate1.6%
Venue Conceded Mean-0.54
Recent 10 Conceded Mean-0.80
Recent 10 Conceded Std-1.25
History Matches32
Result entropy0.02
Goal Difference Std0.22
Stability score-1.71
Recent 10 Result Entropy0.02
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std0.05
Eligible Matches32
Lead Matches8
Lead Win Rate33.5%
Lead Points Retention0.21
Trailing Matches3
Non-loss rate20.0%
Trailing Win Rate10.0%
Halftime Coverage Matches32
First Half Goals For Mean0.03
First Half Goals Against Mean-0.05
Second Half Goals For Mean0.33
Second Half Goals Against Mean-0.11
Current Competition Matches0
Competition Season Count6
Eligible Competition Season Count3
Portability PPG Std0.36
Portability PPG Range1.47
Portability Score-17.00
Rest days10.19
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches2
Short Rest Points Per Match1.87
Normal Rest History Matches24
Normal Rest Points Per Match0.41
Long Rest History Matches6
Long Rest Points Per Match0.26
Current Team ELO83.16
Current Opponent ELO-83.16
Current ELO Difference166.3
Expected score0.23
History Matches32
Residual Mean0.06
Overperformance4.86
Recent 10 Residual Mean-0.01
Latest results, with our pick
Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.
Kaizer Chiefs
L
Orlando Pirates2–1Kaizer Chiefs31 Oct · away
Pick: Orlando Pirates 42% · hit W
Kaizer Chiefs3–0TS Galaxy27 Oct · home
Pick: Kaizer Chiefs 59% · hit L
Red Arrows1–0Kaizer Chiefs17 Oct · away
Pick: Kaizer Chiefs 46% · missed D
Kaizer Chiefs1–1Stellenbosch13 Oct · home
Pick: Kaizer Chiefs 56% · missed D
Richards Bay2–2Kaizer Chiefs26 Aug · away
Pick: Kaizer Chiefs 43% · missed Siwelele
L
Marumo Gallants3–2Siwelele30 Oct · away
Pick: Marumo Gallants 41% · hit W
Siwelele1–0Polokwane City18 Oct · home
Pick: Polokwane City 35% · missed D
Siwelele1–1Chippa United25 Aug · home
Pick: Siwelele 43% · missed Earlier results appear as match history is added
About this match
Kaizer Chiefs and Siwelele meet in League Cup on Friday 6 November 2026, kickoff 17:00 UTC. The match is played at FNB Stadium, Johannesburg. ScoreProb published its prediction on 1 Nov, 08:14 UTC: Kaizer Chiefs win 59.1%, draw 29.4%, Siwelele win 11.5%. The pick is Kaizer Chiefs win. Over 2.5 goals: 41.5%. Both teams to score: 44.6%.
Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.