Orlando Pirates vs Sekhukhune United
Match result probability Model pick: Orlando Pirates win
Orlando Pirates winPick
54.2%
Draw
26.3%
Sekhukhune United win
19.5%
At kickoff this becomes the match centre
Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.
Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Lineups · on the pitch, about an hour before kickoff
Live stats · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect
Both teams to score
Yes47.6%
No52.4%
Total goals · 2.5
Over 2.546.7%
Under 2.553.3%
How much we know
Orlando Pirates history82 matches
Sekhukhune United history62 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news
Your call
Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.
Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score
Match result: ours Orlando Pirates
Over / under 2.5: ours Under
Both teams to score: ours No
Life of this match
One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.
- Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 5 d 8 h ahead1 Nov · 08:14 UTC
- Re-published 11 more timesThe numbers did not changeLatest 4 Nov · 06:57 UTC
- Lineups appearAbout an hour before kickoff, where the competition provides them. This prediction does not use lineups.≈ 16:00 UTC
- KickoffThis page becomes the match centre6 Nov · 17:00 UTC
- Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
- Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC
How reliable are picks like this?
Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 50–59% band (54.2%). Picks in that band won 55.8% of the time, and the model said 54.4% on average, over 3,719 matches.
Why Orlando Pirates are the pick
Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.
-
Orlando Pirates are rated 149 Elo points higher
Elo 1,681 against 1,532. On rating alone Orlando Pirates would be expected to take 70% of the points on offer.
-
Orlando Pirates score more
1.61 goals a game over 82 matches for Orlando Pirates, against 1.19 over 62 for Sekhukhune United.
-
Orlando Pirates concede fewer
Orlando Pirates concede 0.62 a game, Sekhukhune United 1.08.
-
Orlando Pirates games more often go over 2.5 goals
40% of Orlando Pirates matches, against 31% for Sekhukhune United. The model puts this match at 47% for over 2.5.
These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.
Compare the two teams
Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.
Match history used: up to 26 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Sekhukhune United@include('fixtures.partials.crest', ['team' => $away, 'size' => 'sm', 'lazy' => true])
ELO & ratings10 signals 100
1681.3
ELO
1532.4
82
ELO · Matches
62
1681.3
Current Team ELO
1532.4
1532.4
Current Opponent ELO
1681.3
148.8
Current ELO Difference
-148.8
0.70
Expected score
0.30
82
History Matches
62
0.11
Residual Mean
0.02
58.76
Overperformance
51.44
0.00
Recent 10 Residual Mean
-0.04
Recent form16 signals 160
5
Matches
5
2.20
PPG
0.80
1.60
Goals for per game
1.00
0.40
Goals against per game
1.60
60.0%
Win rate
20.0%
10
Matches
10
2.00
PPG
1.20
1.50
Goals for per game
1.20
0.70
Goals against per game
1.40
60.0%
Win rate
30.0%
1.50
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.20
0.81
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.17
0.70
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.40
0.90
Recent 10 Conceded Std
0.92
0.86
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.99
1.25
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.47
Overall performance9 signals 90
82
Matches
62
2.09
PPG
1.48
61.0%
Win rate
38.7%
25.6%
Draw rate
32.3%
13.4%
Loss rate
29.0%
69.5%
Over 1.5 rate
69.4%
40.2%
Over 2.5 rate
30.6%
14.6%
Over 3.5 rate
19.4%
1.56
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.27
Venue performance10 signals 100
42
Matches
33
2.02
PPG
1.45
57.1%
Win rate
39.4%
31.0%
Draw rate
27.3%
11.9%
Loss rate
33.3%
61.9%
Over 1.5 rate
66.7%
28.6%
Over 2.5 rate
39.4%
9.5%
Over 3.5 rate
24.2%
1.40
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.30
42
History Matches
33
Scoring & attack16 signals 160
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals for per gameScoring rateBTTS rate
1.61
Goals for per game
1.19
84.1%
Scoring rate
79.0%
37.8%
BTTS rate
51.6%
1.45
Goals for per game
1.18
78.6%
Scoring rate
78.8%
31.0%
BTTS rate
54.5%
82
History Matches
62
1.61
Goals Mean
1.19
1.18
Goals Std
0.91
84.1%
Scored 1+ rate
79.0%
48.8%
Scored 2+ rate
29.0%
19.5%
Scored 3+ rate
9.7%
1.45
Venue Goals Mean
1.18
Defense & conceding12 signals 120
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals against per gameConceding rate
0.62
Goals against per game
1.08
43.9%
Conceding rate
67.7%
0.45
Goals against per game
1.18
38.1%
Conceding rate
72.7%
82
History Matches
62
0.62
Conceded Mean
1.08
0.86
Conceded Std
0.99
12.2%
Conceded 2+ rate
29.0%
4.9%
Conceded 3+ rate
9.7%
0.45
Venue Conceded Mean
1.18
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals 110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Clean-sheet rateFailed-to-score rate
56.1%
Clean-sheet rate
32.3%
15.9%
Failed-to-score rate
21.0%
61.9%
Clean-sheet rate
27.3%
21.4%
Failed-to-score rate
21.2%
56.1%
Clean-sheet rate
32.3%
15.9%
Failed-to-score rate
21.0%
61.9%
Clean-sheet rate
27.3%
21.4%
Failed-to-score rate
21.2%
56.1%
Clean-sheet rate
32.3%
Volatility & stability4 signals 40
82
History Matches
62
0.84
Result entropy
0.99
1.56
Goal Difference Std
1.27
16.26
Stability score
0.66
Halftime resilience7 signals 70
82
Eligible Matches
62
35
Lead Matches
15
94.3%
Lead Win Rate
86.7%
0.96
Lead Points Retention
0.87
11
Trailing Matches
14
45.5%
Non-loss rate
35.7%
9.1%
Trailing Win Rate
7.1%
Goal timing5 signals 50
82
Halftime Coverage Matches
62
0.74
First Half Goals For Mean
0.52
0.29
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.47
0.87
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.68
0.33
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.61
Rest & schedule9 signals 90
72.98
Rest days
72.98
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
12
Short Rest History Matches
7
1.67
Short Rest Points Per Match
1.57
49
Normal Rest History Matches
33
2.18
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.33
20
Long Rest History Matches
21
2.05
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.62
Competition & season17 signals 170
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin rateDraw rateLoss rateOver 1.5 rateOver 2.5 rateOver 3.5 rateGoal difference · Standard deviationCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference Mean
0
Matches
0
0
Current Competition Matches
0
12
Competition Season Count
8
9
Eligible Competition Season Count
6
0.45
Portability PPG Std
0.43
1.25
Portability PPG Range
1.00
52.68
Portability Score
53.95
Odds & market11 signals 110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal 10
82
Clean History Matches
62
Matchup differences86 signals 086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scoreCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference Mean
ELO148.8
PPG0.60
GF0.42
GA-0.46
PPG0.57
PPG1.40
PPG0.80
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches20
Clean-sheet rate23.8%
Failed-to-score rate-0.05
History Matches9
Clean-sheet rate34.6%
Failed-to-score rate0.2%
History Matches20
Goals Mean0.42
Goals Std0.26
Scored 1+ rate5.1%
Scored 2+ rate19.7%
Scored 3+ rate9.8%
Venue Goals Mean0.27
Recent 10 Goals Mean0.30
Recent 10 Goals Std-0.36
History Matches20
Conceded Mean-0.46
Conceded Std-0.12
Clean-sheet rate23.8%
Conceded 2+ rate-0.17
Conceded 3+ rate-0.05
Venue Conceded Mean-0.73
Recent 10 Conceded Mean-0.70
Recent 10 Conceded Std-0.02
History Matches20
Result entropy-0.16
Goal Difference Std0.29
Stability score15.61
Recent 10 Result Entropy-0.13
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std-0.22
Eligible Matches20
Lead Matches20
Lead Win Rate7.6%
Lead Points Retention0.10
Trailing Matches-3
Non-loss rate9.7%
Trailing Win Rate1.9%
Halftime Coverage Matches20
First Half Goals For Mean0.23
First Half Goals Against Mean-0.18
Second Half Goals For Mean0.19
Second Half Goals Against Mean-0.28
Current Competition Matches0
Competition Season Count4
Eligible Competition Season Count3
Portability PPG Std0.02
Portability PPG Range0.25
Portability Score-1.26
Rest days0.00
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches5
Short Rest Points Per Match0.10
Normal Rest History Matches16
Normal Rest Points Per Match0.85
Long Rest History Matches-1
Long Rest Points Per Match0.43
Current Team ELO148.8
Current Opponent ELO-148.8
Current ELO Difference297.7
Expected score0.40
History Matches20
Residual Mean0.09
Overperformance7.32
Recent 10 Residual Mean0.04
Latest results, with our pick
Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.
Orlando Pirates
W
Orlando Pirates2–1Kaizer Chiefs31 Oct · home
Pick: Orlando Pirates 42% · hit W
Orlando Pirates3–0Milford FC27 Oct · home
Pick: Orlando Pirates 59% · hit W
Orlando Pirates4–0African Stars23 Oct · home
Pick: Orlando Pirates 57% · hit W
African Stars0–1Orlando Pirates17 Oct · away
Pick: Orlando Pirates 49% · hit W
Orlando Pirates3–0TS Galaxy13 Oct · home
Pick: Orlando Pirates 65% · hit Sekhukhune United
W
Sekhukhune United3–1Richards Bay25 Oct · home
Pick: Sekhukhune United 49% · hit W
Sekhukhune United2–1Marumo Gallants17 Oct · home
Pick: Sekhukhune United 53% · hit L
Orlando Pirates3–0Sekhukhune United29 Aug · away
Pick: Orlando Pirates 58% · hit L
Orlando Pirates2–0Sekhukhune United25 Aug · away
Pick: Orlando Pirates 57% · hit Earlier results appear as match history is added
About this match
Orlando Pirates and Sekhukhune United meet in League Cup on Friday 6 November 2026, kickoff 17:00 UTC. The match is played at Orlando Stadium, Johannesburg. ScoreProb published its prediction on 1 Nov, 08:14 UTC: Orlando Pirates win 54.2%, draw 26.3%, Sekhukhune United win 19.5%. The pick is Orlando Pirates win. Over 2.5 goals: 46.7%. Both teams to score: 47.6%.
Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.