ScoreProb
III Liga - Group 2 Poland Group II - 16 2026

Kalisz vs Luzino

Kalisz Home · Elo 1,439
Sat 7 Nov
UTC
Not started
Luzino Away · Elo 1,614
Stadion Miejski, Kalisz Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Luzino win
Kalisz win
29.3%
Draw
26.9%
Luzino winPick
43.8%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Lineups · on the pitch, about an hour before kickoff
Live score and events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Live stats · not provided for this competition by our data source
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes50.6%
No49.4%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.555.3%
Under 2.544.7%

How much we know

Kalisz history67 matches
Luzino history45 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 3 h ahead
    1 Nov · 08:41 UTC
  2. Re-published 11 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 4 Nov · 07:21 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    7 Nov · 12:00 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 40–49% band (43.8%). Picks in that band won 45.4% of the time, and the model said 44.8% on average, over 6,162 matches.

Why Luzino are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • Luzino are rated 175 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,614 against 1,439. On rating alone Luzino would be expected to take 73% of the points on offer.

  • Luzino score far more

    1.07 goals a game over 67 matches for Kalisz, against 2.18 over 45 for Luzino.

  • Luzino concede fewer

    Kalisz concede 1.66 a game, Luzino 1.18.

  • Luzino games more often go over 2.5 goals

    49% of Kalisz matches, against 69% for Luzino. The model puts this match at 55% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 24 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Kalisz
Luzino
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1439.2
ELO
1614.0
67
ELO · Matches
45
1439.2
Current Team ELO
1614.0
1614.0
Current Opponent ELO
1439.2
-174.8
Current ELO Difference
174.8
0.27
Expected score
0.73
67
History Matches
45
-0.05
Residual Mean
0.12
46.14
Overperformance
58.40
-0.02
Recent 10 Residual Mean
-0.11
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
1.00
PPG
2.00
0.80
Goals for per game
2.80
1.20
Goals against per game
1.40
20.0%
Win rate
60.0%
10
Matches
10
1.00
PPG
1.60
0.90
Goals for per game
1.90
1.70
Goals against per game
1.50
20.0%
Win rate
50.0%
0.90
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.90
0.83
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.76
1.70
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.50
1.19
Recent 10 Conceded Std
0.67
0.96
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.86
1.60
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.85
Overall performance9 signals
90
67
Matches
45
1.03
PPG
2.11
26.9%
Win rate
66.7%
22.4%
Draw rate
11.1%
50.7%
Loss rate
22.2%
76.1%
Over 1.5 rate
86.7%
49.3%
Over 2.5 rate
68.9%
28.4%
Over 3.5 rate
33.3%
1.55
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.81
Venue performance10 signals
100
31
Matches
23
1.13
PPG
1.78
29.0%
Win rate
56.5%
25.8%
Draw rate
8.7%
45.2%
Loss rate
34.8%
74.2%
Over 1.5 rate
87.0%
48.4%
Over 2.5 rate
65.2%
25.8%
Over 3.5 rate
30.4%
1.32
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.88
31
History Matches
23
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
1.07
Goals for per game
2.18
70.1%
Scoring rate
91.1%
50.7%
BTTS rate
64.4%
1.19
Goals for per game
1.91
71.0%
Scoring rate
87.0%
54.8%
BTTS rate
69.6%
1.00
Goals for per game
2.80
80.0%
Scoring rate
100.0%
40.0%
BTTS rate
100.0%
67
History Matches
45
1.07
Goals Mean
2.18
0.90
Goals Std
1.54
70.1%
Scored 1+ rate
91.1%
29.9%
Scored 2+ rate
62.2%
7.5%
Scored 3+ rate
31.1%
1.19
Venue Goals Mean
1.91
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
1.66
Goals against per game
1.18
77.6%
Conceding rate
73.3%
1.48
Goals against per game
1.26
80.6%
Conceding rate
82.6%
0.80
Goals against per game
1.40
60.0%
Conceding rate
100.0%
67
History Matches
45
1.66
Conceded Mean
1.18
1.26
Conceded Std
0.93
52.2%
Conceded 2+ rate
35.6%
25.4%
Conceded 3+ rate
8.9%
1.48
Venue Conceded Mean
1.26
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
22.4%
Clean-sheet rate
26.7%
29.9%
Failed-to-score rate
8.9%
19.4%
Clean-sheet rate
17.4%
29.0%
Failed-to-score rate
13.0%
40.0%
Clean-sheet rate
0.0%
20.0%
Failed-to-score rate
0.0%
22.4%
Clean-sheet rate
26.7%
29.9%
Failed-to-score rate
8.9%
19.4%
Clean-sheet rate
17.4%
29.0%
Failed-to-score rate
13.0%
22.4%
Clean-sheet rate
26.7%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
67
History Matches
45
0.94
Result entropy
0.77
1.55
Goal Difference Std
1.81
6.03
Stability score
22.75
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
61
Eligible Matches
43
13
Lead Matches
23
53.8%
Lead Win Rate
78.3%
0.56
Lead Points Retention
0.78
24
Trailing Matches
11
20.8%
Non-loss rate
63.6%
0.0%
Trailing Win Rate
18.2%
Goal timing5 signals
50
61
Halftime Coverage Matches
43
0.33
First Half Goals For Mean
1.02
0.56
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.58
0.66
Second Half Goals For Mean
1.19
1.07
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.63
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
75.92
Rest days
76.04
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
2
Short Rest History Matches
1
1.50
Short Rest Points Per Match
3.00
34
Normal Rest History Matches
26
0.91
Normal Rest Points Per Match
2.08
30
Long Rest History Matches
17
1.07
Long Rest Points Per Match
2.06
Competition & season17 signals
170
5
Matches
5
1.60
PPG
2.00
40.0%
Win rate
60.0%
40.0%
Draw rate
20.0%
20.0%
Loss rate
20.0%
40.0%
Over 1.5 rate
100.0%
20.0%
Over 2.5 rate
80.0%
20.0%
Over 3.5 rate
60.0%
0.75
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.74
5
Current Competition Matches
5
1.60
Current Competition PPG
2.00
0.20
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
1.40
7
Competition Season Count
5
5
Eligible Competition Season Count
3
0.44
Portability PPG Std
0.54
1.27
Portability PPG Range
1.24
53.44
Portability Score
48.28
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
67
Clean History Matches
45
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
ELO-174.8
PPG-1.08
GF-1.10
GA0.48
PPG-0.40
PPG-0.65
PPG-1.00
PPG-0.60
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches22
Clean-sheet rate-0.04
Failed-to-score rate21.0%
History Matches8
Clean-sheet rate2.0%
Failed-to-score rate16.0%
History Matches22
Goals Mean-1.10
Goals Std-0.64
Scored 1+ rate-0.21
Scored 2+ rate-0.32
Scored 3+ rate-0.24
Venue Goals Mean-0.72
Recent 10 Goals Mean-1.00
Recent 10 Goals Std-0.93
History Matches22
Conceded Mean0.48
Conceded Std0.34
Clean-sheet rate-0.04
Conceded 2+ rate16.7%
Conceded 3+ rate16.5%
Venue Conceded Mean0.22
Recent 10 Conceded Mean0.20
Recent 10 Conceded Std0.52
History Matches22
Result entropy0.17
Goal Difference Std-0.27
Stability score-16.72
Recent 10 Result Entropy0.10
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std-0.25
Eligible Matches18
Lead Matches-10
Lead Win Rate-0.24
Lead Points Retention-0.22
Trailing Matches13
Non-loss rate-0.43
Trailing Win Rate-0.18
Halftime Coverage Matches18
First Half Goals For Mean-0.70
First Half Goals Against Mean-0.02
Second Half Goals For Mean-0.53
Second Half Goals Against Mean0.44
Current Competition Matches0
Current Competition PPG-0.40
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean-1.20
Competition Season Count2
Eligible Competition Season Count2
Portability PPG Std-0.10
Portability PPG Range0.03
Portability Score5.16
Rest days-0.13
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches1
Short Rest Points Per Match-1.50
Normal Rest History Matches8
Normal Rest Points Per Match-1.17
Long Rest History Matches13
Long Rest Points Per Match-0.99
Current Team ELO-174.8
Current Opponent ELO174.8
Current ELO Difference-349.7
Expected score-0.46
History Matches22
Residual Mean-0.17
Overperformance-12.26
Recent 10 Residual Mean0.09

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Kalisz

D
Gedania Gdansk0–0Kalisz31 Oct · away
Pick: Gedania Gdansk 39% · missed
D
Kalisz0–0Polonia Środa24 Oct · home
Pick: Polonia Środa 52% · missed
L
Lipno Stęszew1–0Kalisz17 Oct · away
Pick: Kalisz 50% · missed
W
Kalisz5–1Elana Toruń29 Aug · home
Pick: Kalisz 53% · hit
Earlier results appear as match history is added

Luzino

L
Polonia Środa5–2Luzino31 Oct · away
Pick: Polonia Środa 54% · hit
L
Luzino2–4Lech Poznań II24 Oct · home
Pick: Luzino 54% · missed
L
Kluczevia Stargard3–2Luzino17 Oct · away
Pick: Luzino 45% · missed
Earlier results appear as match history is added

About this match

Kalisz and Luzino meet in III Liga - Group 2 on Saturday 7 November 2026, kickoff 12:00 UTC. The match is played at Stadion Miejski, Kalisz. ScoreProb published its prediction on 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC: Kalisz win 29.3%, draw 26.9%, Luzino win 43.8%. The pick is Luzino win. Over 2.5 goals: 55.3%. Both teams to score: 50.6%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.