ScoreProb
III Liga - Group 2 Poland Group II - 16 2026

Kotwica Kórnik vs Lech Poznań II

Kotwica Kórnik Home · Elo 1,431
Sat 7 Nov
UTC
Not started
Lech Poznań II Away · Elo 1,521
Venue to be confirmed Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Lech Poznań II win
Kotwica Kórnik win
25.1%
Draw
21.7%
Lech Poznań II winPick
53.2%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Lineups · on the pitch, about an hour before kickoff
Live score and events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Live stats · not provided for this competition by our data source
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes63.7%
No36.3%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.567.3%
Under 2.532.7%

How much we know

Kotwica Kórnik history27 matches
Lech Poznań II history61 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 2 h ahead
    1 Nov · 08:41 UTC
  2. Re-published 11 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 4 Nov · 07:21 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    7 Nov · 11:00 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 50–59% band (53.2%). Picks in that band won 55.8% of the time, and the model said 54.4% on average, over 3,719 matches.

Why Lech Poznań II are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • Lech Poznań II are rated 90 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,521 against 1,431. On rating alone Lech Poznań II would be expected to take 63% of the points on offer.

  • Lech Poznań II score more

    1.37 goals a game over 27 matches for Kotwica Kórnik, against 1.93 over 61 for Lech Poznań II.

  • Lech Poznań II concede fewer

    Kotwica Kórnik concede 1.89 a game, Lech Poznań II 1.61.

  • Lech Poznań II games more often go over 2.5 goals

    56% of Kotwica Kórnik matches, against 64% for Lech Poznań II. The model puts this match at 67% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 23 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Kotwica Kórnik
Lech Poznań II
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1431.4
ELO
1521.2
27
ELO · Matches
61
1431.4
Current Team ELO
1521.2
1521.2
Current Opponent ELO
1431.4
-89.73
Current ELO Difference
89.73
0.37
Expected score
0.63
27
History Matches
61
-0.12
Residual Mean
0.02
43.31
Overperformance
51.15
-0.24
Recent 10 Residual Mean
0.00
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
0.20
PPG
2.00
0.80
Goals for per game
2.40
2.40
Goals against per game
1.80
0.0%
Win rate
60.0%
10
Matches
10
0.50
PPG
1.40
1.40
Goals for per game
2.00
2.30
Goals against per game
2.00
10.0%
Win rate
40.0%
1.40
Recent 10 Goals Mean
2.00
1.74
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.34
2.30
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
2.00
1.42
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.34
0.73
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.96
2.30
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.95
Overall performance9 signals
90
27
Matches
61
0.93
PPG
1.48
22.2%
Win rate
41.0%
25.9%
Draw rate
24.6%
51.9%
Loss rate
34.4%
88.9%
Over 1.5 rate
88.5%
55.6%
Over 2.5 rate
63.9%
40.7%
Over 3.5 rate
47.5%
1.93
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.12
Venue performance10 signals
100
15
Matches
31
1.33
PPG
1.23
33.3%
Win rate
32.3%
33.3%
Draw rate
25.8%
33.3%
Loss rate
41.9%
93.3%
Over 1.5 rate
83.9%
73.3%
Over 2.5 rate
67.7%
53.3%
Over 3.5 rate
54.8%
2.14
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.09
15
History Matches
31
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
1.37
Goals for per game
1.93
70.4%
Scoring rate
82.0%
55.6%
BTTS rate
68.9%
2.07
Goals for per game
1.77
93.3%
Scoring rate
71.0%
73.3%
BTTS rate
67.7%
0.80
Goals for per game
2.40
40.0%
Scoring rate
100.0%
40.0%
BTTS rate
80.0%
27
History Matches
61
1.37
Goals Mean
1.93
1.31
Goals Std
1.59
70.4%
Scored 1+ rate
82.0%
44.4%
Scored 2+ rate
52.5%
11.1%
Scored 3+ rate
31.1%
2.07
Venue Goals Mean
1.77
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
1.89
Goals against per game
1.61
85.2%
Conceding rate
83.6%
1.87
Goals against per game
1.90
80.0%
Conceding rate
90.3%
2.40
Goals against per game
1.80
100.0%
Conceding rate
80.0%
27
History Matches
61
1.89
Conceded Mean
1.61
1.31
Conceded Std
1.20
63.0%
Conceded 2+ rate
45.9%
25.9%
Conceded 3+ rate
19.7%
1.87
Venue Conceded Mean
1.90
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
14.8%
Clean-sheet rate
16.4%
29.6%
Failed-to-score rate
18.0%
20.0%
Clean-sheet rate
9.7%
6.7%
Failed-to-score rate
29.0%
0.0%
Clean-sheet rate
20.0%
60.0%
Failed-to-score rate
0.0%
14.8%
Clean-sheet rate
16.4%
29.6%
Failed-to-score rate
18.0%
20.0%
Clean-sheet rate
9.7%
6.7%
Failed-to-score rate
29.0%
14.8%
Clean-sheet rate
16.4%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
27
History Matches
61
0.93
Result entropy
0.98
1.93
Goal Difference Std
2.12
6.72
Stability score
1.91
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
25
Eligible Matches
54
6
Lead Matches
22
66.7%
Lead Win Rate
81.8%
0.78
Lead Points Retention
0.86
12
Trailing Matches
16
33.3%
Non-loss rate
18.8%
0.0%
Trailing Win Rate
12.5%
Goal timing5 signals
50
25
Halftime Coverage Matches
54
0.56
First Half Goals For Mean
0.89
1.04
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.65
0.68
Second Half Goals For Mean
1.00
0.88
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.94
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
76.96
Rest days
76.04
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
2
Short Rest History Matches
1
0.00
Short Rest Points Per Match
1.00
14
Normal Rest History Matches
34
1.29
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.65
10
Long Rest History Matches
25
0.70
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.20
Competition & season17 signals
170
5
Matches
5
0.20
PPG
2.00
0.0%
Win rate
60.0%
20.0%
Draw rate
20.0%
80.0%
Loss rate
20.0%
60.0%
Over 1.5 rate
80.0%
40.0%
Over 2.5 rate
60.0%
40.0%
Over 3.5 rate
60.0%
1.36
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.62
5
Current Competition Matches
5
0.20
Current Competition PPG
2.00
-1.60
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
0.60
4
Competition Season Count
5
3
Eligible Competition Season Count
5
0.43
Portability PPG Std
0.34
1.05
Portability PPG Range
1.00
53.83
Portability Score
59.28
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
27
Clean History Matches
61
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
ELO-89.73
PPG-0.55
GF-0.56
GA0.28
PPG-1.80
PPG0.11
PPG-1.80
PPG-0.90
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches-34
Clean-sheet rate-0.02
Failed-to-score rate11.6%
History Matches-16
Clean-sheet rate10.3%
Failed-to-score rate-0.22
History Matches-34
Goals Mean-0.56
Goals Std-0.28
Scored 1+ rate-0.12
Scored 2+ rate-0.08
Scored 3+ rate-0.20
Venue Goals Mean0.29
Recent 10 Goals Mean-0.60
Recent 10 Goals Std0.40
History Matches-34
Conceded Mean0.28
Conceded Std0.11
Clean-sheet rate-0.02
Conceded 2+ rate17.1%
Conceded 3+ rate6.3%
Venue Conceded Mean-0.04
Recent 10 Conceded Mean0.30
Recent 10 Conceded Std0.08
History Matches-34
Result entropy-0.05
Goal Difference Std-0.19
Stability score4.81
Recent 10 Result Entropy-0.23
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std0.35
Eligible Matches-29
Lead Matches-16
Lead Win Rate-0.15
Lead Points Retention-0.09
Trailing Matches-4
Non-loss rate14.6%
Trailing Win Rate-0.13
Halftime Coverage Matches-29
First Half Goals For Mean-0.33
First Half Goals Against Mean0.39
Second Half Goals For Mean-0.32
Second Half Goals Against Mean-0.06
Current Competition Matches0
Current Competition PPG-1.80
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean-2.20
Competition Season Count-1
Eligible Competition Season Count-2
Portability PPG Std0.09
Portability PPG Range0.05
Portability Score-5.45
Rest days0.92
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches1
Short Rest Points Per Match-1.00
Normal Rest History Matches-20
Normal Rest Points Per Match-0.36
Long Rest History Matches-15
Long Rest Points Per Match-0.50
Current Team ELO-89.73
Current Opponent ELO89.73
Current ELO Difference-179.5
Expected score-0.25
History Matches-34
Residual Mean-0.13
Overperformance-7.85
Recent 10 Residual Mean-0.24

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Kotwica Kórnik

L
Kluczevia Stargard1–0Kotwica Kórnik31 Oct · away
Pick: Kluczevia Stargard 66% · hit
L
Kotwica Kórnik0–2Wda Świecie24 Oct · home
Pick: Wda Świecie 58% · hit
L
Elana Toruń3–1Kotwica Kórnik17 Oct · away
Pick: Elana Toruń 65% · hit
Earlier results appear as match history is added

Lech Poznań II

W
Lech Poznań II8–1Flota Świnoujście31 Oct · home
Pick: Flota Świnoujście 41% · missed
W
Luzino2–4Lech Poznań II24 Oct · away
Pick: Luzino 54% · missed
L
Lech Poznań II2–3Polonia Środa18 Oct · home
Pick: Polonia Środa 51% · hit
L
Lech Poznań II1–4Wda Świecie14 Oct · home
Pick: Lech Poznań II 48% · missed
L
Lech Poznań II2–4Grom Nowy Staw29 Aug · home
Pick: Lech Poznań II 63% · missed

About this match

Kotwica Kórnik and Lech Poznań II meet in III Liga - Group 2 on Saturday 7 November 2026, kickoff 11:00 UTC. ScoreProb published its prediction on 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC: Kotwica Kórnik win 25.1%, draw 21.7%, Lech Poznań II win 53.2%. The pick is Lech Poznań II win. Over 2.5 goals: 67.3%. Both teams to score: 63.7%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.