ScoreProb
III Liga - Group 2 Poland Group II - 16 2026

Lipno Stęszew vs Unia Swarzędz

Lipno Stęszew Home · Elo 1,494
Sat 7 Nov
UTC
Not started
Unia Swarzędz Away · Elo 1,531
Venue to be confirmed Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Unia Swarzędz win
Lipno Stęszew win
33.8%
Draw
24.2%
Unia Swarzędz winPick
42.0%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Lineups · on the pitch, about an hour before kickoff
Live score and events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Live stats · not provided for this competition by our data source
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes58.3%
No41.7%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.557.7%
Under 2.542.3%

How much we know

Lipno Stęszew history43 matches
Unia Swarzędz history62 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 2 h ahead
    1 Nov · 08:41 UTC
  2. Re-published 11 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 4 Nov · 07:21 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    7 Nov · 11:00 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 40–49% band (42.0%). Picks in that band won 45.4% of the time, and the model said 44.8% on average, over 6,162 matches.

Why Unia Swarzędz are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • Unia Swarzędz are rated 37 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,531 against 1,494. On rating alone Unia Swarzędz would be expected to take 55% of the points on offer.

  • Unia Swarzędz score more

    1.33 goals a game over 43 matches for Lipno Stęszew, against 1.56 over 62 for Unia Swarzędz.

  • Unia Swarzędz concede fewer

    Lipno Stęszew concede 1.67 a game, Unia Swarzędz 1.39.

  • Both teams play a similar number of high-scoring games

    56% of Lipno Stęszew matches, against 55% for Unia Swarzędz. The model puts this match at 58% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 23 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Lipno Stęszew
Unia Swarzędz
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1493.6
ELO
1530.9
43
ELO · Matches
62
1493.6
Current Team ELO
1530.9
1530.9
Current Opponent ELO
1493.6
-37.32
Current ELO Difference
37.32
0.45
Expected score
0.55
43
History Matches
62
-0.01
Residual Mean
0.03
49.36
Overperformance
52.10
-0.07
Recent 10 Residual Mean
0.04
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
0.20
PPG
1.20
1.00
Goals for per game
1.20
2.20
Goals against per game
1.80
0.0%
Win rate
40.0%
10
Matches
10
1.30
PPG
1.80
1.70
Goals for per game
1.80
1.90
Goals against per game
1.90
40.0%
Win rate
60.0%
1.70
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.80
1.27
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.40
1.90
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.90
1.22
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.92
0.86
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.61
1.89
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
2.59
Overall performance9 signals
90
43
Matches
62
1.35
PPG
1.53
39.5%
Win rate
43.5%
16.3%
Draw rate
22.6%
44.2%
Loss rate
33.9%
81.4%
Over 1.5 rate
74.2%
55.8%
Over 2.5 rate
54.8%
34.9%
Over 3.5 rate
37.1%
1.85
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.92
Venue performance10 signals
100
21
Matches
30
1.43
PPG
1.63
42.9%
Win rate
46.7%
14.3%
Draw rate
23.3%
42.9%
Loss rate
30.0%
71.4%
Over 1.5 rate
80.0%
52.4%
Over 2.5 rate
70.0%
38.1%
Over 3.5 rate
50.0%
1.87
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.70
21
History Matches
30
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
1.33
Goals for per game
1.56
76.7%
Scoring rate
66.1%
51.2%
BTTS rate
50.0%
1.38
Goals for per game
1.80
81.0%
Scoring rate
76.7%
42.9%
BTTS rate
56.7%
1.00
Goals for per game
1.20
80.0%
Scoring rate
40.0%
80.0%
BTTS rate
40.0%
43
History Matches
62
1.33
Goals Mean
1.56
1.07
Goals Std
1.44
76.7%
Scored 1+ rate
66.1%
37.2%
Scored 2+ rate
48.4%
14.0%
Scored 3+ rate
29.0%
1.38
Venue Goals Mean
1.80
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
1.67
Goals against per game
1.39
74.4%
Conceding rate
75.8%
1.62
Goals against per game
1.50
61.9%
Conceding rate
76.7%
2.20
Goals against per game
1.80
100.0%
Conceding rate
100.0%
43
History Matches
62
1.67
Conceded Mean
1.39
1.34
Conceded Std
1.25
51.2%
Conceded 2+ rate
40.3%
32.6%
Conceded 3+ rate
12.9%
1.62
Venue Conceded Mean
1.50
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
25.6%
Clean-sheet rate
24.2%
23.3%
Failed-to-score rate
33.9%
38.1%
Clean-sheet rate
23.3%
19.0%
Failed-to-score rate
23.3%
0.0%
Clean-sheet rate
0.0%
20.0%
Failed-to-score rate
60.0%
25.6%
Clean-sheet rate
24.2%
23.3%
Failed-to-score rate
33.9%
38.1%
Clean-sheet rate
23.3%
19.0%
Failed-to-score rate
23.3%
25.6%
Clean-sheet rate
24.2%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
43
History Matches
62
0.93
Result entropy
0.97
1.85
Goal Difference Std
1.92
6.86
Stability score
3.08
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
42
Eligible Matches
60
16
Lead Matches
21
75.0%
Lead Win Rate
81.0%
0.83
Lead Points Retention
0.87
16
Trailing Matches
20
0.0%
Non-loss rate
30.0%
0.0%
Trailing Win Rate
10.0%
Goal timing5 signals
50
42
Halftime Coverage Matches
60
0.62
First Half Goals For Mean
0.65
0.69
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.57
0.71
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.85
0.95
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.83
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
76.83
Rest days
76.00
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
2
Short Rest History Matches
4
1.50
Short Rest Points Per Match
1.75
22
Normal Rest History Matches
33
1.45
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.39
18
Long Rest History Matches
24
1.28
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.71
Competition & season17 signals
170
5
Matches
5
0.20
PPG
1.20
0.0%
Win rate
40.0%
20.0%
Draw rate
0.0%
80.0%
Loss rate
60.0%
80.0%
Over 1.5 rate
60.0%
60.0%
Over 2.5 rate
60.0%
40.0%
Over 3.5 rate
40.0%
0.98
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.50
5
Current Competition Matches
5
0.20
Current Competition PPG
1.20
-1.20
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
-0.60
3
Competition Season Count
5
3
Eligible Competition Season Count
4
0.61
Portability PPG Std
0.46
1.30
Portability PPG Range
1.20
44.93
Portability Score
52.22
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
43
Clean History Matches
62
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
ELO-37.32
PPG-0.18
GF-0.24
GA0.29
PPG-1.00
PPG-0.20
PPG-1.00
PPG-0.50
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches-19
Clean-sheet rate1.4%
Failed-to-score rate-0.11
History Matches-9
Clean-sheet rate14.8%
Failed-to-score rate-0.04
History Matches-19
Goals Mean-0.24
Goals Std-0.37
Scored 1+ rate10.6%
Scored 2+ rate-0.11
Scored 3+ rate-0.15
Venue Goals Mean-0.42
Recent 10 Goals Mean-0.10
Recent 10 Goals Std-0.13
History Matches-19
Conceded Mean0.29
Conceded Std0.09
Clean-sheet rate1.4%
Conceded 2+ rate10.8%
Conceded 3+ rate19.7%
Venue Conceded Mean0.12
Recent 10 Conceded Mean0.00
Recent 10 Conceded Std-0.70
History Matches-19
Result entropy-0.04
Goal Difference Std-0.07
Stability score3.77
Recent 10 Result Entropy0.25
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std-0.70
Eligible Matches-18
Lead Matches-5
Lead Win Rate-0.06
Lead Points Retention-0.04
Trailing Matches-4
Non-loss rate-0.30
Trailing Win Rate-0.10
Halftime Coverage Matches-18
First Half Goals For Mean-0.03
First Half Goals Against Mean0.12
Second Half Goals For Mean-0.14
Second Half Goals Against Mean0.12
Current Competition Matches0
Current Competition PPG-1.00
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean-0.60
Competition Season Count-2
Eligible Competition Season Count-1
Portability PPG Std0.16
Portability PPG Range0.10
Portability Score-7.29
Rest days0.83
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches-2
Short Rest Points Per Match-0.25
Normal Rest History Matches-11
Normal Rest Points Per Match0.06
Long Rest History Matches-6
Long Rest Points Per Match-0.43
Current Team ELO-37.32
Current Opponent ELO37.32
Current ELO Difference-74.64
Expected score-0.11
History Matches-19
Residual Mean-0.04
Overperformance-2.73
Recent 10 Residual Mean-0.10

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Lipno Stęszew

W
Grom Nowy Staw1–2Lipno Stęszew31 Oct · away
Pick: Grom Nowy Staw 47% · missed
L
Lipno Stęszew1–2Gedania Gdansk24 Oct · home
Pick: Lipno Stęszew 42% · missed
W
Lipno Stęszew1–0Kalisz17 Oct · home
Pick: Kalisz 50% · missed
Earlier results appear as match history is added

Unia Swarzędz

D
Unia Swarzędz0–0Stargard Szczeciński31 Oct · home
Pick: Stargard Szczeciński 41% · missed
W
Chemik Bydgoszcz1–3Unia Swarzędz24 Oct · away
Pick: Chemik Bydgoszcz 36% · missed
D
Unia Swarzędz0–0Victoria Września17 Oct · home
Pick: Unia Swarzędz 62% · missed
Earlier results appear as match history is added

About this match

Lipno Stęszew and Unia Swarzędz meet in III Liga - Group 2 on Saturday 7 November 2026, kickoff 11:00 UTC. ScoreProb published its prediction on 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC: Lipno Stęszew win 33.8%, draw 24.2%, Unia Swarzędz win 42.0%. The pick is Unia Swarzędz win. Over 2.5 goals: 57.7%. Both teams to score: 58.3%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.