ScoreProb
Druha Liga Ukraine Round 15 2026

Karbon Cherkasy vs Atlet

Karbon Cherkasy Home · Elo 1,510
Fri 13 Nov
UTC
Not started
Atlet Away · Elo 1,485
Venue to be confirmed Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 7 Nov, 08:56 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Karbon Cherkasy win
Karbon Cherkasy winPick
41.9%
Draw
22.4%
Atlet win
35.8%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Lineups · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Live stats · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes56.8%
No43.2%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.556.4%
Under 2.543.6%

How much we know

Karbon Cherkasy history3 matches
Atlet history32 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 1 h ahead
    7 Nov · 08:56 UTC
  2. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    13 Nov · 10:30 UTC
  3. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  4. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,663 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,748
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,387
50–59% Won 55.7% · said 54.4% · n 3,845
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,914
70–79% Won 76.0% · said 73.9% · n 601
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 168
This pick sits in the 40–49% band (41.9%). Picks in that band won 45.4% of the time, and the model said 44.8% on average, over 6,387 matches.

Why Karbon Cherkasy are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • Karbon Cherkasy are rated 25 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,510 against 1,485. On rating alone Karbon Cherkasy would be expected to take 54% of the points on offer.

  • Karbon Cherkasy score more

    2.00 goals a game over 3 matches for Karbon Cherkasy, against 1.53 over 32 for Atlet.

  • Karbon Cherkasy concede fewer

    Karbon Cherkasy concede 1.33 a game, Atlet 1.63.

  • Atlet games more often go over 2.5 goals

    33% of Karbon Cherkasy matches, against 59% for Atlet. The model puts this match at 56% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 24 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Karbon Cherkasy
Atlet@include('fixtures.partials.crest', ['team' => $away, 'size' => 'sm', 'lazy' => true])
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1510.3
ELO
1485.0
3
ELO · Matches
32
1510.3
Current Team ELO
1485.0
1485.0
Current Opponent ELO
1510.3
25.35
Current ELO Difference
-25.35
0.54
Expected score
0.46
3
History Matches
32
0.14
Residual Mean
-0.02
51.80
Overperformance
48.83
0.14
Recent 10 Residual Mean
-0.16
Recent form16 signals
160
3
Matches
5
2.00
PPG
0.40
2.00
Goals for per game
1.20
1.33
Goals against per game
2.00
66.7%
Win rate
0.0%
3
Matches
10
2.00
PPG
0.90
2.00
Goals for per game
1.40
1.33
Goals against per game
1.60
66.7%
Win rate
20.0%
2.00
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.40
2.16
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.20
1.33
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.60
1.25
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.11
0.58
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.94
1.25
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.83
Overall performance9 signals
90
3
Matches
32
2.00
PPG
1.38
66.7%
Win rate
40.6%
0.0%
Draw rate
15.6%
33.3%
Loss rate
43.8%
33.3%
Over 1.5 rate
84.4%
33.3%
Over 2.5 rate
59.4%
33.3%
Over 3.5 rate
40.6%
1.25
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.96
Venue performance10 signals
100
1
Matches
15
0.00
PPG
1.07
0.0%
Win rate
33.3%
0.0%
Draw rate
6.7%
100.0%
Loss rate
60.0%
0.0%
Over 1.5 rate
93.3%
0.0%
Over 2.5 rate
73.3%
0.0%
Over 3.5 rate
46.7%
—
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.01
1
History Matches
15
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
2.00
Goals for per game
1.53
66.7%
Scoring rate
78.1%
33.3%
BTTS rate
59.4%
0.00
Goals for per game
1.33
0.0%
Scoring rate
73.3%
0.0%
BTTS rate
66.7%
2.50
Goals for per game
1.50
50.0%
Scoring rate
100.0%
50.0%
BTTS rate
100.0%
3
History Matches
32
2.00
Goals Mean
1.53
2.16
Goals Std
1.22
66.7%
Scored 1+ rate
78.1%
33.3%
Scored 2+ rate
43.8%
33.3%
Scored 3+ rate
21.9%
0.00
Venue Goals Mean
1.33
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
1.33
Goals against per game
1.63
66.7%
Conceding rate
75.0%
1.00
Goals against per game
2.13
100.0%
Conceding rate
86.7%
2.00
Goals against per game
2.00
100.0%
Conceding rate
100.0%
3
History Matches
32
1.33
Conceded Mean
1.63
1.25
Conceded Std
1.39
33.3%
Conceded 2+ rate
50.0%
33.3%
Conceded 3+ rate
25.0%
1.00
Venue Conceded Mean
2.13
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
33.3%
Clean-sheet rate
25.0%
33.3%
Failed-to-score rate
21.9%
0.0%
Clean-sheet rate
13.3%
100.0%
Failed-to-score rate
26.7%
0.0%
Clean-sheet rate
0.0%
50.0%
Failed-to-score rate
0.0%
33.3%
Clean-sheet rate
25.0%
33.3%
Failed-to-score rate
21.9%
0.0%
Clean-sheet rate
13.3%
100.0%
Failed-to-score rate
26.7%
33.3%
Clean-sheet rate
25.0%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
3
History Matches
32
0.58
Result entropy
0.93
1.25
Goal Difference Std
1.96
42.06
Stability score
7.37
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
3
Eligible Matches
30
1
Lead Matches
9
100.0%
Lead Win Rate
77.8%
1.00
Lead Points Retention
0.78
1
Trailing Matches
8
100.0%
Non-loss rate
12.5%
100.0%
Trailing Win Rate
0.0%
Goal timing5 signals
50
3
Halftime Coverage Matches
30
1.00
First Half Goals For Mean
0.67
1.00
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.57
1.00
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.83
0.33
Second Half Goals Against Mean
1.10
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Short Rest Points Per Match
82.02
Rest days
81.94
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
0
Short Rest History Matches
0
0
Normal Rest History Matches
18
—
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.61
2
Long Rest History Matches
13
3.00
Long Rest Points Per Match
0.92
Competition & season17 signals
170
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Portability PPG StdPortability PPG RangePortability Score
2
Matches
2
1.50
PPG
0.50
50.0%
Win rate
0.0%
0.0%
Draw rate
50.0%
50.0%
Loss rate
50.0%
50.0%
Over 1.5 rate
100.0%
50.0%
Over 2.5 rate
50.0%
50.0%
Over 3.5 rate
50.0%
1.50
Goal difference · Standard deviation
0.50
2
Current Competition Matches
2
1.50
Current Competition PPG
0.50
0.50
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
-0.50
2
Competition Season Count
4
0
Eligible Competition Season Count
1
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
3
Clean History Matches
32
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scorePortability PPG StdPortability PPG RangePortability ScoreShort Rest Points Per MatchNormal Rest Points Per Match
ELO25.35
PPG0.63
GF0.47
GA-0.29
PPG1.00
PPG-1.07
PPG1.60
PPG1.10
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches-29
Clean-sheet rate8.3%
Failed-to-score rate11.5%
History Matches-14
Clean-sheet rate-0.13
Failed-to-score rate73.3%
History Matches-29
Goals Mean0.47
Goals Std0.94
Scored 1+ rate-0.11
Scored 2+ rate-0.10
Scored 3+ rate11.5%
Venue Goals Mean-1.33
Recent 10 Goals Mean0.60
Recent 10 Goals Std0.96
History Matches-29
Conceded Mean-0.29
Conceded Std-0.14
Clean-sheet rate8.3%
Conceded 2+ rate-0.17
Conceded 3+ rate8.3%
Venue Conceded Mean-1.13
Recent 10 Conceded Mean-0.27
Recent 10 Conceded Std0.13
History Matches-29
Result entropy-0.35
Goal Difference Std-0.71
Stability score34.69
Recent 10 Result Entropy-0.36
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std-0.59
Eligible Matches-27
Lead Matches-8
Lead Win Rate22.2%
Lead Points Retention0.22
Trailing Matches-7
Non-loss rate87.5%
Trailing Win Rate100.0%
Halftime Coverage Matches-27
First Half Goals For Mean0.33
First Half Goals Against Mean0.43
Second Half Goals For Mean0.17
Second Half Goals Against Mean-0.77
Current Competition Matches0
Current Competition PPG1.00
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean1.00
Competition Season Count-2
Eligible Competition Season Count-1
Rest days0.08
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches0
Normal Rest History Matches-18
Long Rest History Matches-11
Long Rest Points Per Match2.08
Current Team ELO25.35
Current Opponent ELO-25.35
Current ELO Difference50.70
Expected score0.07
History Matches-29
Residual Mean0.16
Overperformance2.97
Recent 10 Residual Mean0.30

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Karbon Cherkasy

W
Karbon Cherkasy2–1Trostianets30 Oct · home
Pick: Karbon Cherkasy 35% · hit
W
Penuel1–8Karbon Cherkasy12 Oct · away
Pick: Karbon Cherkasy 50% · hit
L
Karbon Cherkasy0–3Epitsentr Dunayivtsi9 Sep · home
Pick: Epitsentr Dunayivtsi 39% · hit
D
Trostianets0–0Karbon Cherkasy29 Aug · away
Pick: Trostianets 52% · missed
Earlier results appear as match history is added

Atlet

L
Atlet0–3Lozova1 Nov · home
Pick: Atlet 71% · missed
D
Trostianets1–1Atlet24 Oct · away
Pick: Trostianets 56% · missed
W
Lozova2–3Atlet29 Aug · away
Pick: Atlet 53% · hit
Earlier results appear as match history is added

About this match

Karbon Cherkasy and Atlet meet in Druha Liga on Friday 13 November 2026, kickoff 10:30 UTC. ScoreProb published its prediction on 7 Nov, 08:56 UTC: Karbon Cherkasy win 41.9%, draw 22.4%, Atlet win 35.8%. The pick is Karbon Cherkasy win. Over 2.5 goals: 56.4%. Both teams to score: 56.8%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.