ScoreProb
First NL Croatia Round 12 2026

Karlovac 1919 vs Vukovar

Karlovac 1919 Home · Elo 1,489
Fri 6 Nov
UTC
Not started
Vukovar Away · Elo 1,481
Stadion Branko Cavlovic-Cavlek, Karlovac Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 4 Nov, 06:57 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Karlovac 1919 win
Karlovac 1919 winPick
40.1%
Draw
26.6%
Vukovar win
33.3%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Lineups · on the pitch, about an hour before kickoff
Live stats · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes57.2%
No42.8%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.557.4%
Under 2.542.6%

How much we know

Karlovac 1919 history66 matches
Vukovar history60 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 2 d 9 h ahead
    4 Nov · 06:57 UTC
  2. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    6 Nov · 16:00 UTC
  3. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  4. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 40–49% band (40.1%). Picks in that band won 45.4% of the time, and the model said 44.8% on average, over 6,162 matches.

Why Karlovac 1919 are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • The Elo ratings are level

    Elo 1,489 against 1,481. On rating alone the teams are close to even.

  • Scoring rates are level

    1.53 goals a game over 66 matches for Karlovac 1919, against 1.43 over 60 for Vukovar.

  • Defences are close

    Karlovac 1919 concede 1.33 a game, Vukovar 1.45.

  • Both teams play a similar number of high-scoring games

    58% of Karlovac 1919 matches, against 55% for Vukovar. The model puts this match at 57% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 25 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Karlovac 1919
Vukovar
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1489.0
ELO
1480.9
66
ELO · Matches
60
1489.0
Current Team ELO
1480.9
1480.9
Current Opponent ELO
1489.0
8.07
Current ELO Difference
-8.07
0.51
Expected score
0.49
66
History Matches
60
0.00
Residual Mean
-0.01
50.15
Overperformance
49.27
0.09
Recent 10 Residual Mean
0.00
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
1.20
PPG
0.80
1.20
Goals for per game
1.60
1.60
Goals against per game
2.60
20.0%
Win rate
20.0%
10
Matches
10
1.50
PPG
1.10
1.40
Goals for per game
1.50
1.80
Goals against per game
2.20
40.0%
Win rate
30.0%
1.40
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.50
0.92
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.20
1.80
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
2.20
1.08
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.66
0.99
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.94
1.85
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.95
Overall performance9 signals
90
66
Matches
60
1.50
PPG
1.33
45.5%
Win rate
35.0%
13.6%
Draw rate
28.3%
40.9%
Loss rate
36.7%
78.8%
Over 1.5 rate
80.0%
57.6%
Over 2.5 rate
55.0%
31.8%
Over 3.5 rate
31.7%
2.35
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.07
Venue performance10 signals
100
37
Matches
28
1.70
PPG
0.96
51.4%
Win rate
21.4%
16.2%
Draw rate
32.1%
32.4%
Loss rate
46.4%
73.0%
Over 1.5 rate
82.1%
54.1%
Over 2.5 rate
57.1%
35.1%
Over 3.5 rate
28.6%
2.53
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.01
37
History Matches
28
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
1.53
Goals for per game
1.43
71.2%
Scoring rate
76.7%
43.9%
BTTS rate
53.3%
1.78
Goals for per game
1.18
75.7%
Scoring rate
71.4%
37.8%
BTTS rate
57.1%
0.00
Goals for per game
1.00
0.0%
Scoring rate
100.0%
0.0%
BTTS rate
100.0%
66
History Matches
60
1.53
Goals Mean
1.43
1.47
Goals Std
1.28
71.2%
Scored 1+ rate
76.7%
42.4%
Scored 2+ rate
36.7%
19.7%
Scored 3+ rate
18.3%
1.78
Venue Goals Mean
1.18
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
1.33
Goals against per game
1.45
72.7%
Conceding rate
71.7%
1.14
Goals against per game
1.71
62.2%
Conceding rate
78.6%
3.00
Goals against per game
1.00
100.0%
Conceding rate
100.0%
66
History Matches
60
1.33
Conceded Mean
1.45
1.27
Conceded Std
1.38
34.8%
Conceded 2+ rate
43.3%
18.2%
Conceded 3+ rate
15.0%
1.14
Venue Conceded Mean
1.71
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
27.3%
Clean-sheet rate
28.3%
28.8%
Failed-to-score rate
23.3%
37.8%
Clean-sheet rate
21.4%
24.3%
Failed-to-score rate
28.6%
0.0%
Clean-sheet rate
0.0%
100.0%
Failed-to-score rate
0.0%
27.3%
Clean-sheet rate
28.3%
28.8%
Failed-to-score rate
23.3%
37.8%
Clean-sheet rate
21.4%
24.3%
Failed-to-score rate
28.6%
27.3%
Clean-sheet rate
28.3%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
66
History Matches
60
0.91
Result entropy
0.99
2.35
Goal Difference Std
2.07
9.36
Stability score
0.54
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
66
Eligible Matches
60
25
Lead Matches
12
80.0%
Lead Win Rate
75.0%
0.85
Lead Points Retention
0.81
16
Trailing Matches
24
6.3%
Non-loss rate
33.3%
0.0%
Trailing Win Rate
12.5%
Goal timing5 signals
50
66
Halftime Coverage Matches
60
0.71
First Half Goals For Mean
0.47
0.55
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.70
0.82
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.97
0.79
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.75
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
77.02
Rest days
73.06
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
5
Short Rest History Matches
2
1.40
Short Rest Points Per Match
2.00
36
Normal Rest History Matches
28
1.72
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.39
24
Long Rest History Matches
29
1.25
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.24
Competition & season17 signals
170
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1
Matches
1
0.00
PPG
1.00
0.0%
Win rate
0.0%
0.0%
Draw rate
100.0%
100.0%
Loss rate
0.0%
100.0%
Over 1.5 rate
100.0%
100.0%
Over 2.5 rate
0.0%
0.0%
Over 3.5 rate
0.0%
1
Current Competition Matches
1
0.00
Current Competition PPG
1.00
-3.00
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
0.00
6
Competition Season Count
6
5
Eligible Competition Season Count
3
0.79
Portability PPG Std
0.66
2.27
Portability PPG Range
1.60
38.81
Portability Score
43.21
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
66
Clean History Matches
60
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
ELO8.07
PPG0.17
GF0.10
GA-0.12
PPG-1.00
PPG0.74
PPG0.40
PPG0.40
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches6
Clean-sheet rate-0.01
Failed-to-score rate5.5%
History Matches9
Clean-sheet rate16.4%
Failed-to-score rate-0.04
History Matches6
Goals Mean0.10
Goals Std0.19
Scored 1+ rate-0.05
Scored 2+ rate5.8%
Scored 3+ rate1.4%
Venue Goals Mean0.61
Recent 10 Goals Mean-0.10
Recent 10 Goals Std-0.29
History Matches6
Conceded Mean-0.12
Conceded Std-0.11
Clean-sheet rate-0.01
Conceded 2+ rate-0.08
Conceded 3+ rate3.2%
Venue Conceded Mean-0.58
Recent 10 Conceded Mean-0.40
Recent 10 Conceded Std-0.58
History Matches6
Result entropy-0.09
Goal Difference Std0.28
Stability score8.82
Recent 10 Result Entropy0.05
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std-0.10
Eligible Matches6
Lead Matches13
Lead Win Rate5.0%
Lead Points Retention0.05
Trailing Matches-8
Non-loss rate-0.27
Trailing Win Rate-0.13
Halftime Coverage Matches6
First Half Goals For Mean0.25
First Half Goals Against Mean-0.15
Second Half Goals For Mean-0.15
Second Half Goals Against Mean0.04
Current Competition Matches0
Current Competition PPG-1.00
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean-3.00
Competition Season Count0
Eligible Competition Season Count2
Portability PPG Std0.13
Portability PPG Range0.67
Portability Score-4.40
Rest days3.96
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches3
Short Rest Points Per Match-0.60
Normal Rest History Matches8
Normal Rest Points Per Match0.33
Long Rest History Matches-5
Long Rest Points Per Match0.01
Current Team ELO8.07
Current Opponent ELO-8.07
Current ELO Difference16.13
Expected score0.02
History Matches6
Residual Mean0.01
Overperformance0.89
Recent 10 Residual Mean0.09

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Karlovac 1919

L
HNK Cibalia2–0Karlovac 191930 Oct · away
Pick: HNK Cibalia 58% · hit
L
Karlovac 19190–2Orijent 191924 Oct · home
Pick: Karlovac 1919 49% · missed
L
Karlovac 19191–4HNK Rijeka20 Oct · home
Pick: HNK Rijeka 48% · hit
W
Dinamo Zagreb U210–1Karlovac 191916 Oct · away
Pick: Dinamo Zagreb U21 46% · missed
W
Karlovac 19192–1Opatija29 Aug · home
Pick: Karlovac 1919 38% · hit

Vukovar

L
Orijent 19193–2Vukovar31 Oct · away
Pick: Vukovar 37% · missed
L
Vukovar0–2Bsk Bijelo Brdo24 Oct · home
Pick: Vukovar 45% · missed
W
Vukovar3–2Dubrava Zagreb17 Oct · home
Pick: Vukovar 51% · hit
L
Vukovar0–4Dinamo Zagreb4 Oct · home
Pick: Dinamo Zagreb 55% · hit
W
Vukovar4–1Radnički Dalj25 Aug · home
Pick: Vukovar 56% · hit

About this match

Karlovac 1919 and Vukovar meet in First NL on Friday 6 November 2026, kickoff 16:00 UTC. The match is played at Stadion Branko Cavlovic-Cavlek, Karlovac. ScoreProb published its prediction on 4 Nov, 06:57 UTC: Karlovac 1919 win 40.1%, draw 26.6%, Vukovar win 33.3%. The pick is Karlovac 1919 win. Over 2.5 goals: 57.4%. Both teams to score: 57.2%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.