ScoreProb
First NL Croatia Round 12 2026

Sesvete vs Bsk Bijelo Brdo

Sesvete Home · Elo 1,545
Fri 6 Nov
UTC
Not started
Bsk Bijelo Brdo Away · Elo 1,514
Venue to be confirmed Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 31 Oct, 08:40 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Sesvete win
Sesvete winPick
52.1%
Draw
25.2%
Bsk Bijelo Brdo win
22.6%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Lineups · on the pitch, about an hour before kickoff
Live stats · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes44.7%
No55.3%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.543.3%
Under 2.556.7%

How much we know

Sesvete history54 matches
Bsk Bijelo Brdo history52 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 4 h ahead
    31 Oct · 08:40 UTC
  2. Re-published 15 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 4 Nov · 06:57 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    6 Nov · 13:00 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 50–59% band (52.1%). Picks in that band won 55.8% of the time, and the model said 54.4% on average, over 3,719 matches.

Why Sesvete are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • Sesvete are rated 31 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,545 against 1,514. On rating alone Sesvete would be expected to take 54% of the points on offer.

  • Scoring rates are level

    1.19 goals a game over 54 matches for Sesvete, against 1.12 over 52 for Bsk Bijelo Brdo.

  • Bsk Bijelo Brdo concede fewer

    Sesvete concede 1.07 a game, Bsk Bijelo Brdo 0.96.

  • Both teams play a similar number of high-scoring games

    43% of Sesvete matches, against 35% for Bsk Bijelo Brdo. The model puts this match at 43% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 24 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Sesvete
Bsk Bijelo Brdo
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1544.6
ELO
1513.8
54
ELO · Matches
52
1544.6
Current Team ELO
1513.8
1513.8
Current Opponent ELO
1544.6
30.79
Current ELO Difference
-30.79
0.54
Expected score
0.46
54
History Matches
52
0.04
Residual Mean
0.01
53.01
Overperformance
50.70
-0.11
Recent 10 Residual Mean
0.01
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
1.20
PPG
1.40
1.40
Goals for per game
0.60
2.00
Goals against per game
0.60
40.0%
Win rate
40.0%
10
Matches
10
1.30
PPG
1.40
1.60
Goals for per game
0.60
1.80
Goals against per game
0.70
40.0%
Win rate
40.0%
1.60
Recent 10 Goals Mean
0.60
1.11
Recent 10 Goals Std
0.66
1.80
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
0.70
1.40
Recent 10 Conceded Std
0.78
0.86
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.96
2.27
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.04
Overall performance9 signals
90
54
Matches
52
1.54
PPG
1.42
44.4%
Win rate
40.4%
20.4%
Draw rate
21.2%
35.2%
Loss rate
38.5%
64.8%
Over 1.5 rate
61.5%
42.6%
Over 2.5 rate
34.6%
14.8%
Over 3.5 rate
15.4%
1.75
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.70
Venue performance10 signals
100
27
Matches
27
1.59
PPG
1.19
44.4%
Win rate
33.3%
25.9%
Draw rate
18.5%
29.6%
Loss rate
48.1%
59.3%
Over 1.5 rate
66.7%
44.4%
Over 2.5 rate
37.0%
7.4%
Over 3.5 rate
18.5%
1.59
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.79
27
History Matches
27
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
1.19
Goals for per game
1.12
70.4%
Scoring rate
63.5%
38.9%
BTTS rate
32.7%
1.22
Goals for per game
1.07
70.4%
Scoring rate
59.3%
33.3%
BTTS rate
37.0%
3.00
Goals for per game
1.00
100.0%
Scoring rate
100.0%
0.0%
BTTS rate
0.0%
54
History Matches
52
1.19
Goals Mean
1.12
1.00
Goals Std
1.15
70.4%
Scored 1+ rate
63.5%
35.2%
Scored 2+ rate
30.8%
13.0%
Scored 3+ rate
11.5%
1.22
Venue Goals Mean
1.07
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
1.07
Goals against per game
0.96
59.3%
Conceding rate
59.6%
0.78
Goals against per game
1.19
51.9%
Conceding rate
74.1%
0.00
Goals against per game
0.00
0.0%
Conceding rate
0.0%
54
History Matches
52
1.07
Conceded Mean
0.96
1.33
Conceded Std
1.00
25.9%
Conceded 2+ rate
26.9%
11.1%
Conceded 3+ rate
7.7%
0.78
Venue Conceded Mean
1.19
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
40.7%
Clean-sheet rate
40.4%
29.6%
Failed-to-score rate
36.5%
48.1%
Clean-sheet rate
25.9%
29.6%
Failed-to-score rate
40.7%
100.0%
Clean-sheet rate
100.0%
0.0%
Failed-to-score rate
0.0%
40.7%
Clean-sheet rate
40.4%
29.6%
Failed-to-score rate
36.5%
48.1%
Clean-sheet rate
25.9%
29.6%
Failed-to-score rate
40.7%
40.7%
Clean-sheet rate
40.4%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
54
History Matches
52
0.96
Result entropy
0.97
1.75
Goal Difference Std
1.70
4.24
Stability score
3.31
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
54
Eligible Matches
52
17
Lead Matches
13
82.4%
Lead Win Rate
92.3%
0.86
Lead Points Retention
0.95
12
Trailing Matches
19
8.3%
Non-loss rate
26.3%
0.0%
Trailing Win Rate
5.3%
Goal timing5 signals
50
54
Halftime Coverage Matches
52
0.56
First Half Goals For Mean
0.42
0.39
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.52
0.63
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.69
0.69
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.44
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
76.90
Rest days
74.97
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
2
Short Rest History Matches
2
1.50
Short Rest Points Per Match
3.00
25
Normal Rest History Matches
27
1.48
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.30
26
Long Rest History Matches
22
1.54
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.36
Competition & season17 signals
170
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1
Matches
1
3.00
PPG
3.00
100.0%
Win rate
100.0%
0.0%
Draw rate
0.0%
0.0%
Loss rate
0.0%
100.0%
Over 1.5 rate
0.0%
100.0%
Over 2.5 rate
0.0%
0.0%
Over 3.5 rate
0.0%
1
Current Competition Matches
1
3.00
Current Competition PPG
3.00
3.00
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
1.00
5
Competition Season Count
5
3
Eligible Competition Season Count
2
0.40
Portability PPG Std
0.20
0.98
Portability PPG Range
0.39
55.61
Portability Score
71.74
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
54
Clean History Matches
52
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
ELO30.79
PPG0.11
GF0.07
GA0.11
PPG0.00
PPG0.41
PPG-0.20
PPG-0.10
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches2
Clean-sheet rate0.4%
Failed-to-score rate-0.07
History Matches0
Clean-sheet rate22.2%
Failed-to-score rate-0.11
History Matches2
Goals Mean0.07
Goals Std-0.15
Scored 1+ rate6.9%
Scored 2+ rate4.4%
Scored 3+ rate1.4%
Venue Goals Mean0.15
Recent 10 Goals Mean1.00
Recent 10 Goals Std0.45
History Matches2
Conceded Mean0.11
Conceded Std0.33
Clean-sheet rate0.4%
Conceded 2+ rate-0.01
Conceded 3+ rate3.4%
Venue Conceded Mean-0.41
Recent 10 Conceded Mean1.10
Recent 10 Conceded Std0.62
History Matches2
Result entropy-0.01
Goal Difference Std0.05
Stability score0.93
Recent 10 Result Entropy-0.10
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std1.23
Eligible Matches2
Lead Matches4
Lead Win Rate-0.10
Lead Points Retention-0.09
Trailing Matches-7
Non-loss rate-0.18
Trailing Win Rate-0.05
Halftime Coverage Matches2
First Half Goals For Mean0.13
First Half Goals Against Mean-0.13
Second Half Goals For Mean-0.06
Second Half Goals Against Mean0.24
Current Competition Matches0
Current Competition PPG0.00
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean2.00
Competition Season Count0
Eligible Competition Season Count1
Portability PPG Std0.20
Portability PPG Range0.58
Portability Score-16.13
Rest days1.93
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches0
Short Rest Points Per Match-1.50
Normal Rest History Matches-2
Normal Rest Points Per Match0.18
Long Rest History Matches4
Long Rest Points Per Match0.17
Current Team ELO30.79
Current Opponent ELO-30.79
Current ELO Difference61.57
Expected score0.09
History Matches2
Residual Mean0.03
Overperformance2.32
Recent 10 Residual Mean-0.12

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Sesvete

D
Dubrava Zagreb2–2Sesvete30 Oct · away
Pick: Sesvete 41% · missed
D
Sesvete0–0Hrvace23 Oct · home
Pick: Sesvete 59% · missed
L
Opatija1–0Sesvete16 Oct · away
Pick: Sesvete 36% · missed
Earlier results appear as match history is added

Bsk Bijelo Brdo

L
Bsk Bijelo Brdo2–3Kustosija31 Oct · home
Pick: Bsk Bijelo Brdo 48% · missed
W
Vukovar0–2Bsk Bijelo Brdo24 Oct · away
Pick: Vukovar 45% · missed
D
Bsk Bijelo Brdo0–0Orijent 191917 Oct · home
Pick: Bsk Bijelo Brdo 51% · missed
Earlier results appear as match history is added

About this match

Sesvete and Bsk Bijelo Brdo meet in First NL on Friday 6 November 2026, kickoff 13:00 UTC. ScoreProb published its prediction on 31 Oct, 08:40 UTC: Sesvete win 52.1%, draw 25.2%, Bsk Bijelo Brdo win 22.6%. The pick is Sesvete win. Over 2.5 goals: 43.3%. Both teams to score: 44.7%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.