ScoreProb
First NL Croatia Round 12 2026

Kustosija vs Orijent 1919

Kustosija Home · Elo 1,585
Fri 6 Nov
UTC
Not started
Orijent 1919 Away · Elo 1,494
Stadion Kustosija, Zagreb Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 31 Oct, 08:40 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Kustosija win
Kustosija winPick
55.6%
Draw
23.8%
Orijent 1919 win
20.5%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Lineups · on the pitch, about an hour before kickoff
Live stats · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes53.8%
No46.2%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.554.7%
Under 2.545.3%

How much we know

Kustosija history47 matches
Orijent 1919 history58 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 4 h ahead
    31 Oct · 08:40 UTC
  2. Re-published 15 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 4 Nov · 06:57 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    6 Nov · 13:00 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 50–59% band (55.6%). Picks in that band won 55.8% of the time, and the model said 54.4% on average, over 3,719 matches.

Why Kustosija are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • Kustosija are rated 91 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,585 against 1,494. On rating alone Kustosija would be expected to take 63% of the points on offer.

  • Kustosija score more

    1.83 goals a game over 47 matches for Kustosija, against 1.36 over 58 for Orijent 1919.

  • Kustosija concede fewer

    Kustosija concede 0.96 a game, Orijent 1919 1.12.

  • Kustosija games more often go over 2.5 goals

    53% of Kustosija matches, against 41% for Orijent 1919. The model puts this match at 55% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 26 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Kustosija
Orijent 1919
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1584.8
ELO
1493.8
47
ELO · Matches
58
1584.8
Current Team ELO
1493.8
1493.8
Current Opponent ELO
1584.8
90.97
Current ELO Difference
-90.97
0.63
Expected score
0.37
47
History Matches
58
0.10
Residual Mean
0.00
57.17
Overperformance
49.82
0.00
Recent 10 Residual Mean
-0.08
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
1.20
PPG
1.60
1.80
Goals for per game
1.80
1.60
Goals against per game
1.00
20.0%
Win rate
40.0%
10
Matches
10
1.60
PPG
1.10
1.90
Goals for per game
1.20
1.00
Goals against per game
1.40
40.0%
Win rate
30.0%
1.90
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.20
1.45
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.08
1.00
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.40
0.89
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.36
0.96
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.94
1.64
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
2.04
Overall performance9 signals
90
47
Matches
58
1.85
PPG
1.38
53.2%
Win rate
34.5%
25.5%
Draw rate
34.5%
21.3%
Loss rate
31.0%
78.7%
Over 1.5 rate
74.1%
53.2%
Over 2.5 rate
41.4%
31.9%
Over 3.5 rate
25.9%
1.77
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.66
Venue performance10 signals
100
27
Matches
28
2.00
PPG
1.21
59.3%
Win rate
32.1%
22.2%
Draw rate
25.0%
18.5%
Loss rate
42.9%
88.9%
Over 1.5 rate
75.0%
63.0%
Over 2.5 rate
53.6%
29.6%
Over 3.5 rate
32.1%
1.83
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.82
27
History Matches
28
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
1.83
Goals for per game
1.36
87.2%
Scoring rate
72.4%
53.2%
BTTS rate
53.4%
2.04
Goals for per game
1.25
88.9%
Scoring rate
64.3%
48.1%
BTTS rate
50.0%
1.00
Goals for per game
1.00
100.0%
Scoring rate
100.0%
100.0%
BTTS rate
100.0%
47
History Matches
58
1.83
Goals Mean
1.36
1.33
Goals Std
1.24
87.2%
Scored 1+ rate
72.4%
46.8%
Scored 2+ rate
36.2%
31.9%
Scored 3+ rate
19.0%
2.04
Venue Goals Mean
1.25
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
0.96
Goals against per game
1.12
61.7%
Conceding rate
74.1%
0.81
Goals against per game
1.36
51.9%
Conceding rate
75.0%
1.00
Goals against per game
3.00
100.0%
Conceding rate
100.0%
47
History Matches
58
0.96
Conceded Mean
1.12
0.97
Conceded Std
0.95
25.5%
Conceded 2+ rate
25.9%
6.4%
Conceded 3+ rate
10.3%
0.81
Venue Conceded Mean
1.36
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
38.3%
Clean-sheet rate
25.9%
12.8%
Failed-to-score rate
27.6%
48.1%
Clean-sheet rate
25.0%
11.1%
Failed-to-score rate
35.7%
0.0%
Clean-sheet rate
0.0%
0.0%
Failed-to-score rate
0.0%
38.3%
Clean-sheet rate
25.9%
12.8%
Failed-to-score rate
27.6%
48.1%
Clean-sheet rate
25.0%
11.1%
Failed-to-score rate
35.7%
38.3%
Clean-sheet rate
25.9%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
47
History Matches
58
0.92
Result entropy
1.00
1.77
Goal Difference Std
1.66
7.74
Stability score
0.11
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
47
Eligible Matches
58
16
Lead Matches
19
93.8%
Lead Win Rate
73.7%
0.96
Lead Points Retention
0.81
9
Trailing Matches
12
44.4%
Non-loss rate
33.3%
11.1%
Trailing Win Rate
0.0%
Goal timing5 signals
50
47
Halftime Coverage Matches
58
0.83
First Half Goals For Mean
0.59
0.53
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.50
1.00
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.78
0.43
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.62
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
72.94
Rest days
75.94
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
1
Short Rest History Matches
1
3.00
Short Rest Points Per Match
3.00
25
Normal Rest History Matches
32
1.60
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.56
20
Long Rest History Matches
24
2.05
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.13
Competition & season17 signals
170
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1
Matches
1
1.00
PPG
0.00
0.0%
Win rate
0.0%
100.0%
Draw rate
0.0%
0.0%
Loss rate
100.0%
100.0%
Over 1.5 rate
100.0%
0.0%
Over 2.5 rate
100.0%
0.0%
Over 3.5 rate
100.0%
1
Current Competition Matches
1
1.00
Current Competition PPG
0.00
0.00
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
-2.00
5
Competition Season Count
5
2
Eligible Competition Season Count
4
0.13
Portability PPG Std
0.38
0.25
Portability PPG Range
1.00
79.85
Portability Score
56.74
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
47
Clean History Matches
58
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
ELO90.97
PPG0.47
GF0.47
GA-0.16
PPG1.00
PPG0.79
PPG-0.40
PPG0.50
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches-11
Clean-sheet rate12.4%
Failed-to-score rate-0.15
History Matches-1
Clean-sheet rate23.1%
Failed-to-score rate-0.25
History Matches-11
Goals Mean0.47
Goals Std0.08
Scored 1+ rate14.8%
Scored 2+ rate10.6%
Scored 3+ rate12.9%
Venue Goals Mean0.79
Recent 10 Goals Mean0.70
Recent 10 Goals Std0.37
History Matches-11
Conceded Mean-0.16
Conceded Std0.02
Clean-sheet rate12.4%
Conceded 2+ rate0.00
Conceded 3+ rate-0.04
Venue Conceded Mean-0.54
Recent 10 Conceded Mean-0.40
Recent 10 Conceded Std-0.46
History Matches-11
Result entropy-0.08
Goal Difference Std0.11
Stability score7.63
Recent 10 Result Entropy0.02
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std-0.40
Eligible Matches-11
Lead Matches-3
Lead Win Rate20.1%
Lead Points Retention0.15
Trailing Matches-3
Non-loss rate11.1%
Trailing Win Rate11.1%
Halftime Coverage Matches-11
First Half Goals For Mean0.24
First Half Goals Against Mean0.03
Second Half Goals For Mean0.22
Second Half Goals Against Mean-0.20
Current Competition Matches0
Current Competition PPG1.00
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean2.00
Competition Season Count0
Eligible Competition Season Count-2
Portability PPG Std-0.25
Portability PPG Range-0.75
Portability Score23.11
Rest days-3.00
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches0
Short Rest Points Per Match0.00
Normal Rest History Matches-7
Normal Rest Points Per Match0.04
Long Rest History Matches-4
Long Rest Points Per Match0.93
Current Team ELO90.97
Current Opponent ELO-90.97
Current ELO Difference181.9
Expected score0.26
History Matches-11
Residual Mean0.10
Overperformance7.35
Recent 10 Residual Mean0.08

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Kustosija

W
Bsk Bijelo Brdo2–3Kustosija31 Oct · away
Pick: Bsk Bijelo Brdo 48% · missed
W
Dubrava Zagreb1–2Kustosija23 Oct · away
Pick: Kustosija 36% · hit
W
Hrvace1–2Kustosija17 Oct · away
Pick: Kustosija 41% · hit
L
Kustosija1–2Mladost Ždralovi30 Aug · home
Pick: Kustosija 40% · missed
W
Kustosija3–1HNK Zadar25 Aug · home
Pick: Kustosija 55% · hit

Orijent 1919

W
Orijent 19193–2Vukovar31 Oct · home
Pick: Vukovar 37% · missed
W
Karlovac 19190–2Orijent 191924 Oct · away
Pick: Karlovac 1919 49% · missed
D
Bsk Bijelo Brdo0–0Orijent 191917 Oct · away
Pick: Bsk Bijelo Brdo 51% · missed
W
Orijent 19193–1Križevci26 Aug · home
Pick: Orijent 1919 49% · hit
Earlier results appear as match history is added

About this match

Kustosija and Orijent 1919 meet in First NL on Friday 6 November 2026, kickoff 13:00 UTC. The match is played at Stadion Kustosija, Zagreb. ScoreProb published its prediction on 31 Oct, 08:40 UTC: Kustosija win 55.6%, draw 23.8%, Orijent 1919 win 20.5%. The pick is Kustosija win. Over 2.5 goals: 54.7%. Both teams to score: 53.8%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.