ScoreProb
Regionalliga - Nord Germany North - 17 2026

Kickers Emden vs VfB Lübeck

Kickers Emden Home · Elo 1,517
Fri 6 Nov
UTC
Not started
VfB Lübeck Away · Elo 1,543
Venue to be confirmed Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 31 Oct, 08:40 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Kickers Emden win
Kickers Emden winPick
39.0%
Draw
23.2%
VfB Lübeck win
37.8%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Lineups · not provided for this competition by our data source
Live score and events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Live stats · not provided for this competition by our data source
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes65.0%
No35.0%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.572.9%
Under 2.527.1%

How much we know

Kickers Emden history60 matches
VfB Lübeck history63 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 9 h ahead
    31 Oct · 08:40 UTC
  2. Re-published 15 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 4 Nov · 06:57 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    6 Nov · 18:00 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 33–39% band (39.0%). Picks in that band won 40.1% of the time, and the model said 37.7% on average, over 2,635 matches.

Why Kickers Emden are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • VfB Lübeck are rated 26 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,543 against 1,517. On rating alone VfB Lübeck would be expected to take 54% of the points on offer.

  • Kickers Emden score more

    1.98 goals a game over 60 matches for Kickers Emden, against 1.75 over 63 for VfB Lübeck.

  • Defences are close

    Kickers Emden concede 1.75 a game, VfB Lübeck 1.59.

  • Kickers Emden games more often go over 2.5 goals

    68% of Kickers Emden matches, against 59% for VfB Lübeck. The model puts this match at 73% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 15 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Kickers Emden
VfB Lübeck
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1516.9
ELO
1543.3
60
ELO · Matches
63
1516.9
Current Team ELO
1543.3
1543.3
Current Opponent ELO
1516.9
-26.47
Current ELO Difference
26.47
0.46
Expected score
0.54
60
History Matches
63
0.01
Residual Mean
0.04
50.72
Overperformance
52.67
-0.18
Recent 10 Residual Mean
0.01
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
0.80
PPG
1.00
2.40
Goals for per game
1.00
3.80
Goals against per game
1.80
20.0%
Win rate
20.0%
10
Matches
10
1.10
PPG
1.30
2.10
Goals for per game
1.20
3.10
Goals against per game
1.10
30.0%
Win rate
30.0%
2.10
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.20
1.04
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.33
3.10
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.10
1.58
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.14
0.94
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.99
2.05
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
2.12
Overall performance9 signals
90
60
Matches
63
1.53
PPG
1.51
45.0%
Win rate
41.3%
18.3%
Draw rate
27.0%
36.7%
Loss rate
31.7%
88.3%
Over 1.5 rate
88.9%
68.3%
Over 2.5 rate
58.7%
55.0%
Over 3.5 rate
49.2%
2.05
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.24
Venue performance10 signals
100
29
Matches
31
1.34
PPG
1.42
41.4%
Win rate
38.7%
10.3%
Draw rate
25.8%
48.3%
Loss rate
35.5%
86.2%
Over 1.5 rate
90.3%
75.9%
Over 2.5 rate
61.3%
69.0%
Over 3.5 rate
54.8%
2.19
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.34
29
History Matches
31
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
1.98
Goals for per game
1.75
90.0%
Scoring rate
81.0%
70.0%
BTTS rate
63.5%
2.03
Goals for per game
1.65
89.7%
Scoring rate
71.0%
72.4%
BTTS rate
58.1%
2.75
Goals for per game
0.50
100.0%
Scoring rate
50.0%
100.0%
BTTS rate
50.0%
60
History Matches
63
1.98
Goals Mean
1.75
1.44
Goals Std
1.39
90.0%
Scored 1+ rate
81.0%
53.3%
Scored 2+ rate
49.2%
30.0%
Scored 3+ rate
27.0%
2.03
Venue Goals Mean
1.65
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
1.75
Goals against per game
1.59
80.0%
Conceding rate
81.0%
1.90
Goals against per game
1.81
82.8%
Conceding rate
83.9%
3.75
Goals against per game
2.00
100.0%
Conceding rate
100.0%
60
History Matches
63
1.75
Conceded Mean
1.59
1.37
Conceded Std
1.42
51.7%
Conceded 2+ rate
42.9%
28.3%
Conceded 3+ rate
15.9%
1.90
Venue Conceded Mean
1.81
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
20.0%
Clean-sheet rate
19.0%
10.0%
Failed-to-score rate
19.0%
17.2%
Clean-sheet rate
16.1%
10.3%
Failed-to-score rate
29.0%
0.0%
Clean-sheet rate
0.0%
0.0%
Failed-to-score rate
50.0%
20.0%
Clean-sheet rate
19.0%
10.0%
Failed-to-score rate
19.0%
17.2%
Clean-sheet rate
16.1%
10.3%
Failed-to-score rate
29.0%
20.0%
Clean-sheet rate
19.0%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
60
History Matches
63
0.95
Result entropy
0.99
2.05
Goal Difference Std
2.24
5.50
Stability score
1.42
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
58
Eligible Matches
61
21
Lead Matches
17
61.9%
Lead Win Rate
82.4%
0.70
Lead Points Retention
0.86
17
Trailing Matches
21
47.1%
Non-loss rate
42.9%
23.5%
Trailing Win Rate
9.5%
Goal timing5 signals
50
58
Halftime Coverage Matches
61
0.84
First Half Goals For Mean
0.82
0.67
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.80
1.17
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.87
0.98
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.79
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
83.08
Rest days
83.04
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
6
Short Rest History Matches
3
0.67
Short Rest Points Per Match
1.67
30
Normal Rest History Matches
38
1.70
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.29
23
Long Rest History Matches
21
1.48
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.81
Competition & season17 signals
170
4
Matches
4
1.00
PPG
0.50
25.0%
Win rate
0.0%
25.0%
Draw rate
50.0%
50.0%
Loss rate
50.0%
100.0%
Over 1.5 rate
100.0%
100.0%
Over 2.5 rate
25.0%
100.0%
Over 3.5 rate
25.0%
1.87
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.66
4
Current Competition Matches
4
1.00
Current Competition PPG
0.50
-1.00
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
-1.50
5
Competition Season Count
7
5
Eligible Competition Season Count
5
0.55
Portability PPG Std
0.70
1.40
Portability PPG Range
2.10
47.49
Portability Score
41.62
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
60
Clean History Matches
63
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
ELO-26.47
PPG0.03
GF0.24
GA0.16
PPG0.50
PPG-0.07
PPG-0.20
PPG-0.20
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches-3
Clean-sheet rate1.0%
Failed-to-score rate-0.09
History Matches-2
Clean-sheet rate1.1%
Failed-to-score rate-0.19
History Matches-3
Goals Mean0.24
Goals Std0.05
Scored 1+ rate9.0%
Scored 2+ rate4.1%
Scored 3+ rate3.0%
Venue Goals Mean0.39
Recent 10 Goals Mean0.90
Recent 10 Goals Std-0.28
History Matches-3
Conceded Mean0.16
Conceded Std-0.05
Clean-sheet rate1.0%
Conceded 2+ rate8.8%
Conceded 3+ rate12.5%
Venue Conceded Mean0.09
Recent 10 Conceded Mean2.00
Recent 10 Conceded Std0.44
History Matches-3
Result entropy-0.04
Goal Difference Std-0.19
Stability score4.07
Recent 10 Result Entropy-0.05
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std-0.07
Eligible Matches-3
Lead Matches4
Lead Win Rate-0.20
Lead Points Retention-0.16
Trailing Matches-4
Non-loss rate4.2%
Trailing Win Rate14.0%
Halftime Coverage Matches-3
First Half Goals For Mean0.03
First Half Goals Against Mean-0.13
Second Half Goals For Mean0.30
Second Half Goals Against Mean0.20
Current Competition Matches0
Current Competition PPG0.50
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean0.50
Competition Season Count-2
Eligible Competition Season Count0
Portability PPG Std-0.15
Portability PPG Range-0.70
Portability Score5.87
Rest days0.04
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches3
Short Rest Points Per Match-1.00
Normal Rest History Matches-8
Normal Rest Points Per Match0.41
Long Rest History Matches2
Long Rest Points Per Match-0.33
Current Team ELO-26.47
Current Opponent ELO26.47
Current ELO Difference-52.93
Expected score-0.08
History Matches-3
Residual Mean-0.03
Overperformance-1.95
Recent 10 Residual Mean-0.20

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Kickers Emden

D
Weiche Flensburg1–1Kickers Emden31 Oct · away
Pick: Weiche Flensburg 60% · missed
L
Werder Bremen II3–2Kickers Emden24 Oct · away
Pick: Werder Bremen II 42% · hit
D
Kickers Emden2–2Phönix Lübeck17 Oct · home
Pick: Phönix Lübeck 52% · missed
D
Kickers Emden1–1Hannover 96 II29 Aug · home
Pick: Hannover 96 II 55% · missed
D
Atlas Delmenhorst3–3Kickers Emden26 Aug · away
Pick: Atlas Delmenhorst 62% · missed

VfB Lübeck

L
VfB Lübeck2–5Werder Bremen II31 Oct · home
Pick: VfB Lübeck 51% · missed
W
VfB Lübeck4–1St. Pauli II17 Oct · home
Pick: VfB Lübeck 48% · hit
W
SSV Jeddeloh1–2VfB Lübeck12 Oct · away
Pick: SSV Jeddeloh 45% · missed
L
VfB Lübeck2–3SV Drochtersen/Assel29 Aug · home
Pick: SV Drochtersen/Assel 42% · hit
L
VfB Lübeck1–3Hamburger SV II26 Aug · home
Pick: VfB Lübeck 54% · missed

About this match

Kickers Emden and VfB Lübeck meet in Regionalliga - Nord on Friday 6 November 2026, kickoff 18:00 UTC. ScoreProb published its prediction on 31 Oct, 08:40 UTC: Kickers Emden win 39.0%, draw 23.2%, VfB Lübeck win 37.8%. The pick is Kickers Emden win. Over 2.5 goals: 72.9%. Both teams to score: 65.0%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.