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Kvindeliga Denmark Round 15 2026

KoldingQ W vs Nordsjælland W

KoldingQ W Home · Elo 1,443
Sat 14 Nov
UTC
Not started
Nordsjælland W Away · Elo 1,540
Venue to be confirmed Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 8 Nov, 08:45 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Nordsjælland W win
KoldingQ W win
10.1%
Draw
13.7%
Nordsjælland W winPick
76.2%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Lineups · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Live stats · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes59.8%
No40.2%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.569.3%
Under 2.530.7%

How much we know

KoldingQ W history23 matches
Nordsjælland W history43 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 3 h ahead
    8 Nov · 08:45 UTC
  2. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    14 Nov · 12:00 UTC
  3. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  4. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 16,809 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 39.9% · said 37.7% · n 2,949
40–49% Won 45.3% · said 44.8% · n 6,860
50–59% Won 55.6% · said 54.4% · n 4,146
60–69% Won 63.9% · said 64.4% · n 2,031
70–79% Won 76.5% · said 73.9% · n 646
80%+ Won 83.1% · said 84.5% · n 177
This pick sits in the 70–79% band (76.2%). Picks in that band won 76.5% of the time, and the model said 73.9% on average, over 646 matches.

Why Nordsjælland W are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • Nordsjælland W are rated 97 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,540 against 1,443. On rating alone Nordsjælland W would be expected to take 64% of the points on offer.

  • Nordsjælland W score far more

    1.26 goals a game over 23 matches for KoldingQ W, against 1.95 over 43 for Nordsjælland W.

  • Nordsjælland W concede fewer

    KoldingQ W concede 2.43 a game, Nordsjælland W 1.21.

  • KoldingQ W games more often go over 2.5 goals

    70% of KoldingQ W matches, against 58% for Nordsjælland W. The model puts this match at 69% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 23 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
KoldingQ W
Nordsjælland W@include('fixtures.partials.crest', ['team' => $away, 'size' => 'sm', 'lazy' => true])
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1443.0
ELO
1540.2
23
ELO · Matches
43
1443.0
Current Team ELO
1540.2
1540.2
Current Opponent ELO
1443.0
-97.21
Current ELO Difference
97.21
0.36
Expected score
0.64
23
History Matches
43
-0.12
Residual Mean
0.04
43.75
Overperformance
53.07
-0.09
Recent 10 Residual Mean
0.09
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
1.20
PPG
1.40
2.20
Goals for per game
2.60
2.60
Goals against per game
1.00
40.0%
Win rate
40.0%
10
Matches
10
0.90
PPG
1.60
1.60
Goals for per game
2.30
2.50
Goals against per game
0.90
30.0%
Win rate
40.0%
1.60
Recent 10 Goals Mean
2.30
1.20
Recent 10 Goals Std
2.69
2.50
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
0.90
1.80
Recent 10 Conceded Std
0.54
0.56
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.96
2.43
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
2.65
Overall performance9 signals
90
23
Matches
43
0.87
PPG
1.47
26.1%
Win rate
39.5%
8.7%
Draw rate
27.9%
65.2%
Loss rate
32.6%
87.0%
Over 1.5 rate
69.8%
69.6%
Over 2.5 rate
58.1%
52.2%
Over 3.5 rate
46.5%
2.43
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.31
Venue performance10 signals
100
12
Matches
22
0.58
PPG
1.36
16.7%
Win rate
31.8%
8.3%
Draw rate
40.9%
75.0%
Loss rate
27.3%
83.3%
Over 1.5 rate
68.2%
58.3%
Over 2.5 rate
54.5%
41.7%
Over 3.5 rate
50.0%
2.34
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.13
12
History Matches
22
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
1.26
Goals for per game
1.95
73.9%
Scoring rate
67.4%
65.2%
BTTS rate
51.2%
0.92
Goals for per game
1.77
58.3%
Scoring rate
63.6%
50.0%
BTTS rate
50.0%
2.50
Goals for per game
3.25
100.0%
Scoring rate
75.0%
75.0%
BTTS rate
75.0%
23
History Matches
43
1.26
Goals Mean
1.95
1.07
Goals Std
2.00
73.9%
Scored 1+ rate
67.4%
34.8%
Scored 2+ rate
53.5%
13.0%
Scored 3+ rate
30.2%
0.92
Venue Goals Mean
1.77
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
2.43
Goals against per game
1.21
91.3%
Conceding rate
72.1%
2.75
Goals against per game
1.23
91.7%
Conceding rate
68.2%
2.50
Goals against per game
1.00
75.0%
Conceding rate
100.0%
23
History Matches
43
2.43
Conceded Mean
1.21
1.91
Conceded Std
1.11
52.2%
Conceded 2+ rate
27.9%
43.5%
Conceded 3+ rate
16.3%
2.75
Venue Conceded Mean
1.23
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
8.7%
Clean-sheet rate
27.9%
26.1%
Failed-to-score rate
32.6%
8.3%
Clean-sheet rate
31.8%
41.7%
Failed-to-score rate
36.4%
25.0%
Clean-sheet rate
0.0%
0.0%
Failed-to-score rate
25.0%
8.7%
Clean-sheet rate
27.9%
26.1%
Failed-to-score rate
32.6%
8.3%
Clean-sheet rate
31.8%
41.7%
Failed-to-score rate
36.4%
8.7%
Clean-sheet rate
27.9%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
23
History Matches
43
0.77
Result entropy
0.99
2.43
Goal Difference Std
2.31
23.39
Stability score
0.93
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
23
Eligible Matches
43
3
Lead Matches
17
100.0%
Lead Win Rate
88.2%
1.00
Lead Points Retention
0.90
15
Trailing Matches
13
20.0%
Non-loss rate
23.1%
6.7%
Trailing Win Rate
0.0%
Goal timing5 signals
50
23
Halftime Coverage Matches
43
0.48
First Half Goals For Mean
0.98
1.35
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.60
0.78
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.98
1.09
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.60
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
86.79
Rest days
83.10
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
0
Short Rest History Matches
1
—
Short Rest Points Per Match
3.00
7
Normal Rest History Matches
21
1.71
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.48
15
Long Rest History Matches
20
0.47
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.30
Competition & season17 signals
170
4
Matches
4
1.50
PPG
1.75
50.0%
Win rate
50.0%
0.0%
Draw rate
25.0%
50.0%
Loss rate
25.0%
100.0%
Over 1.5 rate
75.0%
100.0%
Over 2.5 rate
50.0%
100.0%
Over 3.5 rate
50.0%
3.16
Goal difference · Standard deviation
3.49
4
Current Competition Matches
4
1.50
Current Competition PPG
1.75
0.00
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
2.25
2
Competition Season Count
5
2
Eligible Competition Season Count
4
0.38
Portability PPG Std
0.35
0.76
Portability PPG Range
0.86
56.72
Portability Score
59.11
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
23
Clean History Matches
43
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scoreShort Rest Points Per Match
ELO-97.21
PPG-0.60
GF-0.69
GA1.23
PPG-0.25
PPG-0.78
PPG-0.20
PPG-0.70
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches-20
Clean-sheet rate-0.19
Failed-to-score rate-0.06
History Matches-10
Clean-sheet rate-0.23
Failed-to-score rate5.3%
History Matches-20
Goals Mean-0.69
Goals Std-0.93
Scored 1+ rate6.5%
Scored 2+ rate-0.19
Scored 3+ rate-0.17
Venue Goals Mean-0.86
Recent 10 Goals Mean-0.70
Recent 10 Goals Std-1.49
History Matches-20
Conceded Mean1.23
Conceded Std0.80
Clean-sheet rate-0.19
Conceded 2+ rate24.3%
Conceded 3+ rate27.2%
Venue Conceded Mean1.52
Recent 10 Conceded Mean1.60
Recent 10 Conceded Std1.26
History Matches-20
Result entropy-0.22
Goal Difference Std0.11
Stability score22.46
Recent 10 Result Entropy-0.40
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std-0.23
Eligible Matches-20
Lead Matches-14
Lead Win Rate11.8%
Lead Points Retention0.10
Trailing Matches2
Non-loss rate-0.03
Trailing Win Rate6.7%
Halftime Coverage Matches-20
First Half Goals For Mean-0.50
First Half Goals Against Mean0.74
Second Half Goals For Mean-0.19
Second Half Goals Against Mean0.48
Current Competition Matches0
Current Competition PPG-0.25
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean-2.25
Competition Season Count-3
Eligible Competition Season Count-2
Portability PPG Std0.04
Portability PPG Range-0.10
Portability Score-2.39
Rest days3.69
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches-1
Normal Rest History Matches-14
Normal Rest Points Per Match0.24
Long Rest History Matches-5
Long Rest Points Per Match-0.83
Current Team ELO-97.21
Current Opponent ELO97.21
Current ELO Difference-194.4
Expected score-0.27
History Matches-20
Residual Mean-0.16
Overperformance-9.32
Recent 10 Residual Mean-0.18

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

KoldingQ W

D
KoldingQ W2–2FC Copenhagen W7 Nov · home
Pick: KoldingQ W 64% · missed
L
ASA Aarhus W1–0KoldingQ W31 Oct · away
Pick: KoldingQ W 45% · missed
L
KoldingQ W2–3Køge W24 Oct · home
Pick: Køge W 81% · hit
D
Fortuna Hjørring W0–0KoldingQ W17 Oct · away
Pick: Fortuna Hjørring W 81% · missed
L
Nordsjælland W4–0KoldingQ W1 Sep · away
Pick: Nordsjælland W 79% · hit

Nordsjælland W

L
FC Copenhagen W2–1Nordsjælland W31 Oct · away
Pick: Nordsjælland W 67% · missed
W
Nordsjælland W5–0AGF W27 Oct · home
Pick: Nordsjælland W 78% · hit
D
Midtjylland W0–0Nordsjælland W18 Oct · away
Pick: Nordsjælland W 53% · missed
D
Nordsjælland W2–2Køge W4 Oct · home
Pick: Køge W 42% · missed
W
Nordsjælland W4–0KoldingQ W1 Sep · home
Pick: Nordsjælland W 79% · hit

About this match

KoldingQ W and Nordsjælland W meet in Kvindeliga on Saturday 14 November 2026, kickoff 12:00 UTC. ScoreProb published its prediction on 8 Nov, 08:45 UTC: KoldingQ W win 10.1%, draw 13.7%, Nordsjælland W win 76.2%. The pick is Nordsjælland W win. Over 2.5 goals: 69.3%. Both teams to score: 59.8%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.