ScoreProb
1. SNL Slovenia Round 15 2026

Koper vs Mura

Koper Home · Elo 1,650
Sat 7 Nov
UTC
Not started
Mura Away · Elo 1,431
Bonifika, Koper Referee: D. Halilovic Verified before kickoff · first published 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Koper win
Koper winPick
64.5%
Draw
20.3%
Mura win
15.2%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Lineups · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Live stats · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes52.0%
No48.0%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.560.6%
Under 2.539.4%

How much we know

Koper history79 matches
Mura history69 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 5 h ahead
    1 Nov · 08:41 UTC
  2. Re-published 11 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 4 Nov · 07:21 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    7 Nov · 14:00 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,274 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,668
40–49% Won 45.5% · said 44.8% · n 6,228
50–59% Won 55.7% · said 54.4% · n 3,755
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,872
70–79% Won 76.3% · said 73.9% · n 587
80%+ Won 83.5% · said 84.5% · n 164
This pick sits in the 60–69% band (64.5%). Picks in that band won 63.6% of the time, and the model said 64.3% on average, over 1,872 matches.

Why Koper are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • Koper are rated 219 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,650 against 1,431. On rating alone Koper would be expected to take 78% of the points on offer.

  • Koper score far more

    1.87 goals a game over 79 matches for Koper, against 1.01 over 69 for Mura.

  • Koper concede fewer

    Koper concede 1.33 a game, Mura 1.67.

  • Koper games more often go over 2.5 goals

    59% of Koper matches, against 49% for Mura. The model puts this match at 61% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 23 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Koper
Mura@include('fixtures.partials.crest', ['team' => $away, 'size' => 'sm', 'lazy' => true])
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1649.9
ELO
1431.0
79
ELO · Matches
69
1649.9
Current Team ELO
1431.0
1431.0
Current Opponent ELO
1649.9
218.9
Current ELO Difference
-218.9
0.78
Expected score
0.22
79
History Matches
69
0.09
Residual Mean
-0.05
57.34
Overperformance
46.43
-0.06
Recent 10 Residual Mean
0.00
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
1.00
PPG
1.20
0.40
Goals for per game
1.20
1.00
Goals against per game
2.00
20.0%
Win rate
40.0%
10
Matches
10
1.50
PPG
0.80
1.30
Goals for per game
1.20
1.20
Goals against per game
2.50
40.0%
Win rate
20.0%
1.30
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.20
1.00
Recent 10 Goals Std
0.75
1.20
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
2.50
1.25
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.69
0.99
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.86
1.58
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.85
Overall performance9 signals
90
79
Matches
69
1.86
PPG
0.88
54.4%
Win rate
21.7%
22.8%
Draw rate
23.2%
22.8%
Loss rate
55.1%
83.5%
Over 1.5 rate
76.8%
59.5%
Over 2.5 rate
49.3%
38.0%
Over 3.5 rate
24.6%
1.78
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.64
Venue performance10 signals
100
39
Matches
34
1.97
PPG
0.56
59.0%
Win rate
14.7%
20.5%
Draw rate
11.8%
20.5%
Loss rate
73.5%
76.9%
Over 1.5 rate
79.4%
61.5%
Over 2.5 rate
58.8%
33.3%
Over 3.5 rate
32.4%
1.60
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.60
39
History Matches
34
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
1.87
Goals for per game
1.01
88.6%
Scoring rate
62.3%
64.6%
BTTS rate
50.7%
1.87
Goals for per game
0.94
87.2%
Scoring rate
58.8%
59.0%
BTTS rate
50.0%
1.00
Goals for per game
1.33
66.7%
Scoring rate
83.3%
33.3%
BTTS rate
66.7%
79
History Matches
69
1.87
Goals Mean
1.01
1.24
Goals Std
0.97
88.6%
Scored 1+ rate
62.3%
55.7%
Scored 2+ rate
30.4%
31.6%
Scored 3+ rate
8.7%
1.87
Venue Goals Mean
0.94
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
1.33
Goals against per game
1.67
73.4%
Conceding rate
82.6%
1.15
Goals against per game
2.21
66.7%
Conceding rate
91.2%
0.83
Goals against per game
2.00
50.0%
Conceding rate
83.3%
79
History Matches
69
1.33
Conceded Mean
1.67
1.29
Conceded Std
1.30
35.4%
Conceded 2+ rate
47.8%
11.4%
Conceded 3+ rate
21.7%
1.15
Venue Conceded Mean
2.21
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
26.6%
Clean-sheet rate
17.4%
11.4%
Failed-to-score rate
37.7%
33.3%
Clean-sheet rate
8.8%
12.8%
Failed-to-score rate
41.2%
50.0%
Clean-sheet rate
16.7%
33.3%
Failed-to-score rate
16.7%
26.6%
Clean-sheet rate
17.4%
11.4%
Failed-to-score rate
37.7%
33.3%
Clean-sheet rate
8.8%
12.8%
Failed-to-score rate
41.2%
26.6%
Clean-sheet rate
17.4%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
79
History Matches
69
0.91
Result entropy
0.91
1.78
Goal Difference Std
1.64
8.51
Stability score
9.05
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
77
Eligible Matches
68
33
Lead Matches
18
66.7%
Lead Win Rate
61.1%
0.74
Lead Points Retention
0.72
17
Trailing Matches
30
35.3%
Non-loss rate
3.3%
17.6%
Trailing Win Rate
0.0%
Goal timing5 signals
50
77
Halftime Coverage Matches
68
0.83
First Half Goals For Mean
0.53
0.51
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.81
1.05
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.49
0.83
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.87
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
76.94
Rest days
76.94
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
10
Short Rest History Matches
7
1.60
Short Rest Points Per Match
0.71
47
Normal Rest History Matches
37
1.91
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.11
21
Long Rest History Matches
24
1.95
Long Rest Points Per Match
0.58
Competition & season17 signals
170
6
Matches
6
1.50
PPG
1.17
33.3%
Win rate
33.3%
50.0%
Draw rate
16.7%
16.7%
Loss rate
50.0%
66.7%
Over 1.5 rate
66.7%
16.7%
Over 2.5 rate
66.7%
16.7%
Over 3.5 rate
50.0%
1.21
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.49
6
Current Competition Matches
6
1.50
Current Competition PPG
1.17
0.17
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
-0.67
8
Competition Season Count
6
6
Eligible Competition Season Count
4
0.43
Portability PPG Std
0.16
1.25
Portability PPG Range
0.42
53.62
Portability Score
75.21
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
79
Clean History Matches
69
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
ELO218.9
PPG0.98
GF0.86
GA-0.34
PPG0.33
PPG1.42
PPG-0.20
PPG0.70
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches10
Clean-sheet rate9.2%
Failed-to-score rate-0.26
History Matches5
Clean-sheet rate24.5%
Failed-to-score rate-0.28
History Matches10
Goals Mean0.86
Goals Std0.27
Scored 1+ rate26.3%
Scored 2+ rate25.3%
Scored 3+ rate22.9%
Venue Goals Mean0.93
Recent 10 Goals Mean0.10
Recent 10 Goals Std0.26
History Matches10
Conceded Mean-0.34
Conceded Std-0.01
Clean-sheet rate9.2%
Conceded 2+ rate-0.12
Conceded 3+ rate-0.10
Venue Conceded Mean-1.05
Recent 10 Conceded Mean-1.30
Recent 10 Conceded Std-0.44
History Matches10
Result entropy0.01
Goal Difference Std0.14
Stability score-0.54
Recent 10 Result Entropy0.13
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std-0.27
Eligible Matches9
Lead Matches15
Lead Win Rate5.6%
Lead Points Retention0.02
Trailing Matches-13
Non-loss rate32.0%
Trailing Win Rate17.6%
Halftime Coverage Matches9
First Half Goals For Mean0.30
First Half Goals Against Mean-0.30
Second Half Goals For Mean0.57
Second Half Goals Against Mean-0.04
Current Competition Matches0
Current Competition PPG0.33
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean0.83
Competition Season Count2
Eligible Competition Season Count2
Portability PPG Std0.27
Portability PPG Range0.83
Portability Score-21.59
Rest days0.00
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches3
Short Rest Points Per Match0.89
Normal Rest History Matches10
Normal Rest Points Per Match0.81
Long Rest History Matches-3
Long Rest Points Per Match1.37
Current Team ELO218.9
Current Opponent ELO-218.9
Current ELO Difference437.8
Expected score0.56
History Matches10
Residual Mean0.14
Overperformance10.92
Recent 10 Residual Mean-0.06

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Koper

W
Bravo1–2Koper2 Nov · away
Pick: Koper 45% · hit
W
Koper4–0Maribor27 Oct · home
Pick: Koper 46% · hit
L
Tabor Sežana1–0Koper23 Oct · away
Pick: Koper 50% · missed
W
Koper5–0Brinje-Grosuplje18 Oct · home
Pick: Koper 57% · hit
Earlier results appear as match history is added

Mura

D
Mura0–0Brinje-Grosuplje1 Nov · home
Pick: Mura 41% · missed
D
Radomlje1–1Mura27 Oct · away
Pick: Radomlje 47% · missed
D
Mura0–0Nafta17 Oct · home
Pick: Nafta 38% · missed
L
Bravo2–0Mura29 Aug · away
Pick: Bravo 58% · hit
Earlier results appear as match history is added

About this match

Koper and Mura meet in 1. SNL on Saturday 7 November 2026, kickoff 14:00 UTC. The match is played at Bonifika, Koper. ScoreProb published its prediction on 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC: Koper win 64.5%, draw 20.3%, Mura win 15.2%. The pick is Koper win. Over 2.5 goals: 60.6%. Both teams to score: 52.0%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.