ScoreProb
1. Liga Classic - Group 3 Switzerland Group 3 - 13 2026

Kosova vs Baden

Kosova Home · Elo 1,480
Sat 7 Nov
UTC
Not started
Baden Away · Elo 1,502
Venue to be confirmed Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Baden win
Kosova win
32.4%
Draw
22.7%
Baden winPick
44.9%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Lineups · not provided for this competition by our data source
Live score and events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Live stats · not provided for this competition by our data source
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes61.9%
No38.1%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.563.5%
Under 2.536.5%

How much we know

Kosova history48 matches
Baden history54 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 6 h ahead
    1 Nov · 08:41 UTC
  2. Re-published 11 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 4 Nov · 07:21 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    7 Nov · 15:00 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 40–49% band (44.9%). Picks in that band won 45.4% of the time, and the model said 44.8% on average, over 6,162 matches.

Why Baden are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • The Elo ratings are level

    Elo 1,480 against 1,502. On rating alone the teams are close to even.

  • Scoring rates are level

    1.67 goals a game over 48 matches for Kosova, against 1.72 over 54 for Baden.

  • Defences are close

    Kosova concede 1.65 a game, Baden 1.63.

  • Both teams play a similar number of high-scoring games

    60% of Kosova matches, against 65% for Baden. The model puts this match at 64% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 22 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Kosova
Baden
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1479.9
ELO
1501.8
48
ELO · Matches
54
1479.9
Current Team ELO
1501.8
1501.8
Current Opponent ELO
1479.9
-21.86
Current ELO Difference
21.86
0.47
Expected score
0.53
48
History Matches
54
-0.02
Residual Mean
0.01
48.80
Overperformance
50.57
-0.04
Recent 10 Residual Mean
0.03
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
1.00
PPG
2.00
1.00
Goals for per game
2.00
1.40
Goals against per game
1.20
20.0%
Win rate
60.0%
10
Matches
10
1.00
PPG
1.50
1.40
Goals for per game
1.80
1.60
Goals against per game
1.70
10.0%
Win rate
40.0%
1.40
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.80
1.02
Recent 10 Goals Std
0.87
1.60
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.70
1.11
Recent 10 Conceded Std
0.78
0.73
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.99
0.75
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.45
Overall performance9 signals
90
48
Matches
54
1.29
PPG
1.43
33.3%
Win rate
38.9%
29.2%
Draw rate
25.9%
37.5%
Loss rate
35.2%
83.3%
Over 1.5 rate
83.3%
60.4%
Over 2.5 rate
64.8%
37.5%
Over 3.5 rate
46.3%
1.80
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.95
Venue performance10 signals
100
25
Matches
25
1.28
PPG
1.32
32.0%
Win rate
36.0%
32.0%
Draw rate
24.0%
36.0%
Loss rate
40.0%
88.0%
Over 1.5 rate
80.0%
64.0%
Over 2.5 rate
56.0%
40.0%
Over 3.5 rate
44.0%
1.62
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.91
25
History Matches
25
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
1.67
Goals for per game
1.72
81.3%
Scoring rate
85.2%
66.7%
BTTS rate
72.2%
1.52
Goals for per game
1.40
84.0%
Scoring rate
72.0%
72.0%
BTTS rate
60.0%
1.00
Goals for per game
2.33
66.7%
Scoring rate
100.0%
66.7%
BTTS rate
100.0%
48
History Matches
54
1.67
Goals Mean
1.72
1.34
Goals Std
1.43
81.3%
Scored 1+ rate
85.2%
45.8%
Scored 2+ rate
46.3%
25.0%
Scored 3+ rate
20.4%
1.52
Venue Goals Mean
1.40
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
1.65
Goals against per game
1.63
77.1%
Conceding rate
85.2%
1.68
Goals against per game
1.68
80.0%
Conceding rate
84.0%
0.67
Goals against per game
1.33
66.7%
Conceding rate
100.0%
48
History Matches
54
1.65
Conceded Mean
1.63
1.42
Conceded Std
1.19
47.9%
Conceded 2+ rate
48.1%
20.8%
Conceded 3+ rate
18.5%
1.68
Venue Conceded Mean
1.68
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
22.9%
Clean-sheet rate
14.8%
18.8%
Failed-to-score rate
14.8%
20.0%
Clean-sheet rate
16.0%
16.0%
Failed-to-score rate
28.0%
33.3%
Clean-sheet rate
0.0%
33.3%
Failed-to-score rate
0.0%
22.9%
Clean-sheet rate
14.8%
18.8%
Failed-to-score rate
14.8%
20.0%
Clean-sheet rate
16.0%
16.0%
Failed-to-score rate
28.0%
22.9%
Clean-sheet rate
14.8%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
48
History Matches
54
1.00
Result entropy
0.99
1.80
Goal Difference Std
1.95
0.48
Stability score
1.26
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
34
Eligible Matches
43
11
Lead Matches
12
81.8%
Lead Win Rate
58.3%
0.85
Lead Points Retention
0.72
12
Trailing Matches
12
41.7%
Non-loss rate
16.7%
8.3%
Trailing Win Rate
0.0%
Goal timing5 signals
50
34
Halftime Coverage Matches
43
0.71
First Half Goals For Mean
0.65
0.62
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.77
0.91
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.81
0.85
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.88
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
77.04
Rest days
77.04
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
1
Short Rest History Matches
2
3.00
Short Rest Points Per Match
3.00
31
Normal Rest History Matches
31
1.13
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.29
15
Long Rest History Matches
20
1.40
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.40
Competition & season17 signals
170
3
Matches
3
1.67
PPG
2.33
33.3%
Win rate
66.7%
66.7%
Draw rate
33.3%
0.0%
Loss rate
0.0%
66.7%
Over 1.5 rate
100.0%
33.3%
Over 2.5 rate
100.0%
0.0%
Over 3.5 rate
66.7%
0.47
Goal difference · Standard deviation
0.82
3
Current Competition Matches
3
1.67
Current Competition PPG
2.33
0.33
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
1.00
4
Competition Season Count
5
3
Eligible Competition Season Count
4
0.19
Portability PPG Std
0.49
0.47
Portability PPG Range
1.33
72.41
Portability Score
50.30
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
48
Clean History Matches
54
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
ELO-21.86
PPG-0.13
GF-0.06
GA0.02
PPG-0.67
PPG-0.04
PPG-1.00
PPG-0.50
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches-6
Clean-sheet rate8.1%
Failed-to-score rate3.9%
History Matches0
Clean-sheet rate4.0%
Failed-to-score rate-0.12
History Matches-6
Goals Mean-0.06
Goals Std-0.09
Scored 1+ rate-0.04
Scored 2+ rate0.00
Scored 3+ rate4.6%
Venue Goals Mean0.12
Recent 10 Goals Mean-0.40
Recent 10 Goals Std0.15
History Matches-6
Conceded Mean0.02
Conceded Std0.23
Clean-sheet rate8.1%
Conceded 2+ rate0.00
Conceded 3+ rate2.3%
Venue Conceded Mean0.00
Recent 10 Conceded Mean-0.10
Recent 10 Conceded Std0.33
History Matches-6
Result entropy0.01
Goal Difference Std-0.15
Stability score-0.78
Recent 10 Result Entropy-0.26
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std-0.70
Eligible Matches-9
Lead Matches-1
Lead Win Rate23.5%
Lead Points Retention0.13
Trailing Matches0
Non-loss rate25.0%
Trailing Win Rate8.3%
Halftime Coverage Matches-9
First Half Goals For Mean0.05
First Half Goals Against Mean-0.15
Second Half Goals For Mean0.10
Second Half Goals Against Mean-0.03
Current Competition Matches0
Current Competition PPG-0.67
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean-0.67
Competition Season Count-1
Eligible Competition Season Count-1
Portability PPG Std-0.30
Portability PPG Range-0.87
Portability Score22.11
Rest days0.00
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches-1
Short Rest Points Per Match0.00
Normal Rest History Matches0
Normal Rest Points Per Match-0.16
Long Rest History Matches-5
Long Rest Points Per Match0.00
Current Team ELO-21.86
Current Opponent ELO21.86
Current ELO Difference-43.72
Expected score-0.06
History Matches-6
Residual Mean-0.02
Overperformance-1.77
Recent 10 Residual Mean-0.07

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Kosova

W
Gossau0–3Kosova31 Oct · away
Pick: Kosova 41% · hit
D
Kosova1–1Taverne24 Oct · home
Pick: Taverne 39% · missed
L
Mendrisio3–1Kosova17 Oct · away
Pick: Mendrisio 51% · hit
W
Kosova1–0Dietikon7 Oct · home
Pick: Kosova 42% · hit
D
Freienbach3–3Kosova29 Aug · away
Pick: Freienbach 42% · missed

Baden

W
Baden3–1Thalwil31 Oct · home
Pick: Baden 66% · hit
W
Baden6–0Widnau24 Oct · home
Pick: Baden 64% · hit
W
Baden2–1FC Wohlen17 Oct · home
Pick: Baden 46% · hit
W
St. Gallen II0–3Baden29 Aug · away
Pick: Baden 40% · hit
Earlier results appear as match history is added

About this match

Kosova and Baden meet in 1. Liga Classic - Group 3 on Saturday 7 November 2026, kickoff 15:00 UTC. ScoreProb published its prediction on 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC: Kosova win 32.4%, draw 22.7%, Baden win 44.9%. The pick is Baden win. Over 2.5 goals: 63.5%. Both teams to score: 61.9%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.