ScoreProb
1. Liga Classic - Group 3 Switzerland Group 3 - 13 2026

Thalwil vs Widnau

Thalwil Home · Elo 1,474
Sat 7 Nov
UTC
Not started
Widnau Away · Elo 1,429
Venue to be confirmed Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Thalwil win
Thalwil winPick
47.8%
Draw
20.5%
Widnau win
31.7%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Lineups · not provided for this competition by our data source
Live score and events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Live stats · not provided for this competition by our data source
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes58.8%
No41.2%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.564.5%
Under 2.535.5%

How much we know

Thalwil history12 matches
Widnau history39 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 6 h ahead
    1 Nov · 08:41 UTC
  2. Re-published 11 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 4 Nov · 07:21 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    7 Nov · 15:00 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 40–49% band (47.8%). Picks in that band won 45.4% of the time, and the model said 44.8% on average, over 6,162 matches.

Why Thalwil are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • Thalwil are rated 45 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,474 against 1,429. On rating alone Thalwil would be expected to take 56% of the points on offer.

  • Thalwil score far more

    1.67 goals a game over 12 matches for Thalwil, against 1.08 over 39 for Widnau.

  • Widnau concede fewer

    Thalwil concede 2.25 a game, Widnau 1.92.

  • Thalwil games more often go over 2.5 goals

    83% of Thalwil matches, against 67% for Widnau. The model puts this match at 64% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 23 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Thalwil
Widnau
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1474.5
ELO
1429.3
12
ELO · Matches
39
1474.5
Current Team ELO
1429.3
1429.3
Current Opponent ELO
1474.5
45.16
Current ELO Difference
-45.16
0.56
Expected score
0.44
12
History Matches
39
-0.06
Residual Mean
-0.09
47.71
Overperformance
44.27
-0.02
Recent 10 Residual Mean
0.03
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
1.20
PPG
1.40
1.80
Goals for per game
1.40
2.40
Goals against per game
1.60
40.0%
Win rate
40.0%
10
Matches
10
1.30
PPG
1.10
1.90
Goals for per game
1.20
2.30
Goals against per game
1.70
40.0%
Win rate
30.0%
1.90
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.20
1.51
Recent 10 Goals Std
0.98
2.30
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.70
1.49
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.27
0.86
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.94
2.01
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.50
Overall performance9 signals
90
12
Matches
39
1.17
PPG
0.95
33.3%
Win rate
25.6%
16.7%
Draw rate
17.9%
50.0%
Loss rate
56.4%
100.0%
Over 1.5 rate
79.5%
83.3%
Over 2.5 rate
66.7%
33.3%
Over 3.5 rate
35.9%
1.98
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.90
Venue performance10 signals
100
9
Matches
19
1.44
PPG
0.89
44.4%
Win rate
26.3%
11.1%
Draw rate
10.5%
44.4%
Loss rate
63.2%
100.0%
Over 1.5 rate
84.2%
88.9%
Over 2.5 rate
78.9%
33.3%
Over 3.5 rate
57.9%
2.04
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.16
9
History Matches
19
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
1.67
Goals for per game
1.08
66.7%
Scoring rate
66.7%
58.3%
BTTS rate
53.8%
2.00
Goals for per game
1.21
77.8%
Scoring rate
73.7%
66.7%
BTTS rate
57.9%
1.67
Goals for per game
0.67
66.7%
Scoring rate
66.7%
33.3%
BTTS rate
66.7%
12
History Matches
39
1.67
Goals Mean
1.08
1.49
Goals Std
1.00
66.7%
Scored 1+ rate
66.7%
50.0%
Scored 2+ rate
28.2%
33.3%
Scored 3+ rate
12.8%
2.00
Venue Goals Mean
1.21
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
2.25
Goals against per game
1.92
91.7%
Conceding rate
76.9%
2.22
Goals against per game
2.37
88.9%
Conceding rate
78.9%
1.00
Goals against per game
2.00
66.7%
Conceding rate
100.0%
12
History Matches
39
2.25
Conceded Mean
1.92
1.42
Conceded Std
1.51
75.0%
Conceded 2+ rate
56.4%
33.3%
Conceded 3+ rate
35.9%
2.22
Venue Conceded Mean
2.37
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
8.3%
Clean-sheet rate
23.1%
33.3%
Failed-to-score rate
33.3%
11.1%
Clean-sheet rate
21.1%
22.2%
Failed-to-score rate
26.3%
33.3%
Clean-sheet rate
0.0%
33.3%
Failed-to-score rate
33.3%
8.3%
Clean-sheet rate
23.1%
33.3%
Failed-to-score rate
33.3%
11.1%
Clean-sheet rate
21.1%
22.2%
Failed-to-score rate
26.3%
8.3%
Clean-sheet rate
23.1%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
12
History Matches
39
0.92
Result entropy
0.89
1.98
Goal Difference Std
1.90
7.94
Stability score
10.78
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
10
Eligible Matches
27
3
Lead Matches
4
100.0%
Lead Win Rate
75.0%
1.00
Lead Points Retention
0.75
4
Trailing Matches
12
0.0%
Non-loss rate
16.7%
0.0%
Trailing Win Rate
0.0%
Goal timing5 signals
50
10
Halftime Coverage Matches
27
1.00
First Half Goals For Mean
0.48
1.20
First Half Goals Against Mean
1.04
0.70
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.56
1.10
Second Half Goals Against Mean
1.00
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Short Rest Points Per Match
76.13
Rest days
77.04
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
0
Short Rest History Matches
0
4
Normal Rest History Matches
19
1.50
Normal Rest Points Per Match
0.74
7
Long Rest History Matches
19
1.14
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.05
Competition & season17 signals
170
3
Matches
3
2.00
PPG
0.33
66.7%
Win rate
0.0%
0.0%
Draw rate
33.3%
33.3%
Loss rate
66.7%
100.0%
Over 1.5 rate
100.0%
66.7%
Over 2.5 rate
66.7%
0.0%
Over 3.5 rate
0.0%
2.05
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.25
3
Current Competition Matches
3
2.00
Current Competition PPG
0.33
0.67
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
-1.33
4
Competition Season Count
4
2
Eligible Competition Season Count
3
0.43
Portability PPG Std
0.70
0.86
Portability PPG Range
1.67
53.85
Portability Score
41.70
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
12
Clean History Matches
39
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scoreShort Rest Points Per Match
ELO45.16
PPG0.22
GF0.59
GA0.33
PPG1.67
PPG0.55
PPG-0.20
PPG0.20
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches-27
Clean-sheet rate-0.15
Failed-to-score rate0.0%
History Matches-10
Clean-sheet rate-0.10
Failed-to-score rate-0.04
History Matches-27
Goals Mean0.59
Goals Std0.49
Scored 1+ rate0.0%
Scored 2+ rate21.8%
Scored 3+ rate20.5%
Venue Goals Mean0.79
Recent 10 Goals Mean0.70
Recent 10 Goals Std0.53
History Matches-27
Conceded Mean0.33
Conceded Std-0.09
Clean-sheet rate-0.15
Conceded 2+ rate18.6%
Conceded 3+ rate-0.03
Venue Conceded Mean-0.15
Recent 10 Conceded Mean0.60
Recent 10 Conceded Std0.22
History Matches-27
Result entropy0.03
Goal Difference Std0.08
Stability score-2.84
Recent 10 Result Entropy-0.08
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std0.51
Eligible Matches-17
Lead Matches-1
Lead Win Rate25.0%
Lead Points Retention0.25
Trailing Matches-8
Non-loss rate-0.17
Trailing Win Rate0.0%
Halftime Coverage Matches-17
First Half Goals For Mean0.52
First Half Goals Against Mean0.16
Second Half Goals For Mean0.14
Second Half Goals Against Mean0.10
Current Competition Matches0
Current Competition PPG1.67
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean2.00
Competition Season Count0
Eligible Competition Season Count-1
Portability PPG Std-0.27
Portability PPG Range-0.81
Portability Score12.14
Rest days-0.92
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches0
Normal Rest History Matches-15
Normal Rest Points Per Match0.76
Long Rest History Matches-12
Long Rest Points Per Match0.09
Current Team ELO45.16
Current Opponent ELO-45.16
Current ELO Difference90.32
Expected score0.13
History Matches-27
Residual Mean0.03
Overperformance3.44
Recent 10 Residual Mean-0.05

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Thalwil

L
Baden3–1Thalwil31 Oct · away
Pick: Baden 66% · hit
W
Thalwil2–1Gossau24 Oct · home
Pick: Thalwil 48% · hit
L
Muttenz4–1Thalwil17 Oct · away
Pick: Muttenz 66% · hit
D
Eschen / Mauren0–0Thalwil29 Aug · away
Pick: Eschen / Mauren 58% · missed
Earlier results appear as match history is added

Widnau

L
Widnau0–1St. Gallen II1 Nov · home
Pick: St. Gallen II 48% · hit
L
Baden6–0Widnau24 Oct · away
Pick: Baden 64% · hit
L
Widnau0–2Buochs18 Oct · home
Pick: Widnau 43% · missed
L
Widnau0–1Collina d'Oro30 Aug · home
Pick: Collina d'Oro 46% · hit
Earlier results appear as match history is added

About this match

Thalwil and Widnau meet in 1. Liga Classic - Group 3 on Saturday 7 November 2026, kickoff 15:00 UTC. ScoreProb published its prediction on 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC: Thalwil win 47.8%, draw 20.5%, Widnau win 31.7%. The pick is Thalwil win. Over 2.5 goals: 64.5%. Both teams to score: 58.8%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.