ScoreProb
Premier League Ukraine Round 12 2026

Kudrivka vs Chornomorets

Kudrivka Home · Elo 1,476
Sat 7 Nov
UTC
Not started
Chornomorets Away · Elo 1,568
Avangard, Rivne Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 3 Nov, 07:46 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Kudrivka win
Kudrivka winPick
47.4%
Draw
27.0%
Chornomorets win
25.6%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Lineups · on the pitch, about an hour before kickoff
Live stats · shots, possession, corners, side by side
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes48.1%
No51.9%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.547.3%
Under 2.552.7%

How much we know

Kudrivka history61 matches
Chornomorets history59 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 4 d 3 h ahead
    3 Nov · 07:46 UTC
  2. Re-published 4 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 4 Nov · 07:21 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    7 Nov · 11:00 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 40–49% band (47.4%). Picks in that band won 45.4% of the time, and the model said 44.8% on average, over 6,162 matches.

Why Kudrivka are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • Chornomorets are rated 92 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,568 against 1,476. On rating alone Chornomorets would be expected to take 63% of the points on offer.

  • Chornomorets score more

    1.07 goals a game over 61 matches for Kudrivka, against 1.22 over 59 for Chornomorets.

  • Chornomorets concede fewer

    Kudrivka concede 1.36 a game, Chornomorets 1.02.

  • Both teams play a similar number of high-scoring games

    43% of Kudrivka matches, against 46% for Chornomorets. The model puts this match at 47% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 24 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Kudrivka
Chornomorets
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1475.8
ELO
1567.6
61
ELO · Matches
59
1475.8
Current Team ELO
1567.6
1567.6
Current Opponent ELO
1475.8
-91.73
Current ELO Difference
91.73
0.37
Expected score
0.63
61
History Matches
59
-0.02
Residual Mean
0.06
48.84
Overperformance
54.30
0.19
Recent 10 Residual Mean
-0.07
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
1.60
PPG
0.60
1.60
Goals for per game
0.80
1.20
Goals against per game
1.60
40.0%
Win rate
20.0%
10
Matches
10
1.50
PPG
1.50
1.40
Goals for per game
1.10
1.50
Goals against per game
1.20
40.0%
Win rate
50.0%
1.40
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.10
1.74
Recent 10 Goals Std
0.94
1.50
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.20
1.69
Recent 10 Conceded Std
0.75
0.99
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.63
2.59
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.37
Overall performance9 signals
90
61
Matches
59
1.05
PPG
1.71
26.2%
Win rate
50.8%
26.2%
Draw rate
18.6%
47.5%
Loss rate
30.5%
72.1%
Over 1.5 rate
67.8%
42.6%
Over 2.5 rate
45.8%
24.6%
Over 3.5 rate
13.6%
1.69
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.61
Venue performance10 signals
100
31
Matches
29
1.42
PPG
1.24
35.5%
Win rate
34.5%
35.5%
Draw rate
20.7%
29.0%
Loss rate
44.8%
74.2%
Over 1.5 rate
79.3%
45.2%
Over 2.5 rate
44.8%
22.6%
Over 3.5 rate
20.7%
1.40
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.63
31
History Matches
29
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
1.07
Goals for per game
1.22
65.6%
Scoring rate
74.6%
49.2%
BTTS rate
44.1%
1.23
Goals for per game
1.03
74.2%
Scoring rate
69.0%
54.8%
BTTS rate
51.7%
0.33
Goals for per game
0.50
33.3%
Scoring rate
50.0%
33.3%
BTTS rate
50.0%
61
History Matches
59
1.07
Goals Mean
1.22
1.11
Goals Std
0.99
65.6%
Scored 1+ rate
74.6%
27.9%
Scored 2+ rate
33.9%
6.6%
Scored 3+ rate
11.9%
1.23
Venue Goals Mean
1.03
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
1.36
Goals against per game
1.02
73.8%
Conceding rate
62.7%
1.03
Goals against per game
1.45
64.5%
Conceding rate
82.8%
1.67
Goals against per game
2.00
33.3%
Conceding rate
100.0%
61
History Matches
59
1.36
Conceded Mean
1.02
1.17
Conceded Std
1.03
41.0%
Conceded 2+ rate
27.1%
13.1%
Conceded 3+ rate
8.5%
1.03
Venue Conceded Mean
1.45
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
26.2%
Clean-sheet rate
37.3%
34.4%
Failed-to-score rate
25.4%
35.5%
Clean-sheet rate
17.2%
25.8%
Failed-to-score rate
31.0%
66.7%
Clean-sheet rate
0.0%
66.7%
Failed-to-score rate
50.0%
26.2%
Clean-sheet rate
37.3%
34.4%
Failed-to-score rate
25.4%
35.5%
Clean-sheet rate
17.2%
25.8%
Failed-to-score rate
31.0%
26.2%
Clean-sheet rate
37.3%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
61
History Matches
59
0.96
Result entropy
0.93
1.69
Goal Difference Std
1.61
3.92
Stability score
7.22
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
60
Eligible Matches
56
16
Lead Matches
16
68.8%
Lead Win Rate
81.3%
0.75
Lead Points Retention
0.85
23
Trailing Matches
16
30.4%
Non-loss rate
18.8%
4.3%
Trailing Win Rate
6.3%
Goal timing5 signals
50
60
Halftime Coverage Matches
56
0.52
First Half Goals For Mean
0.45
0.65
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.52
0.55
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.75
0.70
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.50
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
77.08
Rest days
75.92
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
5
Short Rest History Matches
2
0.80
Short Rest Points Per Match
1.50
34
Normal Rest History Matches
33
1.35
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.91
21
Long Rest History Matches
23
0.67
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.39
Competition & season17 signals
170
3
Matches
2
0.67
PPG
0.00
0.0%
Win rate
0.0%
66.7%
Draw rate
0.0%
33.3%
Loss rate
100.0%
33.3%
Over 1.5 rate
100.0%
33.3%
Over 2.5 rate
50.0%
33.3%
Over 3.5 rate
0.0%
1.89
Goal difference · Standard deviation
0.50
3
Current Competition Matches
2
0.67
Current Competition PPG
0.00
-1.33
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
-1.50
7
Competition Season Count
7
4
Eligible Competition Season Count
4
0.21
Portability PPG Std
0.51
0.58
Portability PPG Range
1.32
70.14
Portability Score
49.43
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
61
Clean History Matches
59
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
ELO-91.73
PPG-0.66
GF-0.15
GA0.34
PPG0.67
PPG0.18
PPG1.00
PPG0.00
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches2
Clean-sheet rate-0.11
Failed-to-score rate9.0%
History Matches2
Clean-sheet rate18.2%
Failed-to-score rate-0.05
History Matches2
Goals Mean-0.15
Goals Std0.12
Scored 1+ rate-0.09
Scored 2+ rate-0.06
Scored 3+ rate-0.05
Venue Goals Mean0.19
Recent 10 Goals Mean0.30
Recent 10 Goals Std0.80
History Matches2
Conceded Mean0.34
Conceded Std0.14
Clean-sheet rate-0.11
Conceded 2+ rate13.9%
Conceded 3+ rate4.6%
Venue Conceded Mean-0.42
Recent 10 Conceded Mean0.30
Recent 10 Conceded Std0.94
History Matches2
Result entropy0.03
Goal Difference Std0.08
Stability score-3.31
Recent 10 Result Entropy0.36
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std1.21
Eligible Matches4
Lead Matches0
Lead Win Rate-0.13
Lead Points Retention-0.10
Trailing Matches7
Non-loss rate11.7%
Trailing Win Rate-0.02
Halftime Coverage Matches4
First Half Goals For Mean0.07
First Half Goals Against Mean0.13
Second Half Goals For Mean-0.20
Second Half Goals Against Mean0.20
Current Competition Matches1
Current Competition PPG0.67
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean0.17
Competition Season Count0
Eligible Competition Season Count0
Portability PPG Std-0.30
Portability PPG Range-0.74
Portability Score20.71
Rest days1.17
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches3
Short Rest Points Per Match-0.70
Normal Rest History Matches1
Normal Rest Points Per Match-0.56
Long Rest History Matches-2
Long Rest Points Per Match-0.72
Current Team ELO-91.73
Current Opponent ELO91.73
Current ELO Difference-183.5
Expected score-0.26
History Matches2
Residual Mean-0.07
Overperformance-5.46
Recent 10 Residual Mean0.26

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Kudrivka

L
Karpaty5–0Kudrivka2 Nov · away
Pick: Karpaty 73% · hit
W
Kudrivka4–1Bukovyna17 Oct · home
Pick: Bukovyna 39% · missed
L
Kudrivka0–3Epitsentr Dunayivtsi29 Aug · home
Pick: Epitsentr Dunayivtsi 40% · hit
Earlier results appear as match history is added

Chornomorets

L
Zorya Luhansk2–1Chornomorets17 Oct · away
Pick: Zorya Luhansk 56% · hit
W
Chornomorets1–0Kryvbas KR30 Aug · home
Pick: Kryvbas KR 41% · missed
Earlier results appear as match history is added

About this match

Kudrivka and Chornomorets meet in Premier League on Saturday 7 November 2026, kickoff 11:00 UTC. The match is played at Avangard, Rivne. ScoreProb published its prediction on 3 Nov, 07:46 UTC: Kudrivka win 47.4%, draw 27.0%, Chornomorets win 25.6%. The pick is Kudrivka win. Over 2.5 goals: 47.3%. Both teams to score: 48.1%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.