ScoreProb
Premier League Ukraine Round 12 2026

Epitsentr Dunayivtsi vs Kryvbas KR

Epitsentr Dunayivtsi Home · Elo 1,556
Sat 7 Nov
UTC
Not started
Kryvbas KR Away · Elo 1,529
Tonkocheyev Stadium, Kamianets-Podilskyi Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 3 Nov, 07:46 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Epitsentr Dunayivtsi win
Epitsentr Dunayivtsi winPick
44.1%
Draw
22.1%
Kryvbas KR win
33.9%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Lineups · on the pitch, about an hour before kickoff
Live stats · shots, possession, corners, side by side
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes55.4%
No44.6%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.556.4%
Under 2.543.6%

How much we know

Epitsentr Dunayivtsi history57 matches
Kryvbas KR history64 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 4 d 5 h ahead
    3 Nov · 07:46 UTC
  2. Re-published 4 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 4 Nov · 07:21 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    7 Nov · 13:30 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 40–49% band (44.1%). Picks in that band won 45.4% of the time, and the model said 44.8% on average, over 6,162 matches.

Why Epitsentr Dunayivtsi are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • Epitsentr Dunayivtsi are rated 27 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,556 against 1,529. On rating alone Epitsentr Dunayivtsi would be expected to take 54% of the points on offer.

  • Scoring rates are level

    1.51 goals a game over 57 matches for Epitsentr Dunayivtsi, against 1.45 over 64 for Kryvbas KR.

  • Epitsentr Dunayivtsi concede fewer

    Epitsentr Dunayivtsi concede 1.25 a game, Kryvbas KR 1.50.

  • Both teams play a similar number of high-scoring games

    54% of Epitsentr Dunayivtsi matches, against 59% for Kryvbas KR. The model puts this match at 56% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 22 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Epitsentr Dunayivtsi
Kryvbas KR
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1556.2
ELO
1528.9
57
ELO · Matches
64
1556.2
Current Team ELO
1528.9
1528.9
Current Opponent ELO
1556.2
27.27
Current ELO Difference
-27.27
0.54
Expected score
0.46
57
History Matches
64
0.05
Residual Mean
0.02
53.65
Overperformance
51.16
0.02
Recent 10 Residual Mean
-0.08
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
1.40
PPG
1.40
1.00
Goals for per game
1.80
0.80
Goals against per game
1.60
40.0%
Win rate
40.0%
10
Matches
10
1.60
PPG
1.10
1.70
Goals for per game
1.70
1.00
Goals against per game
1.70
50.0%
Win rate
30.0%
1.70
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.70
1.62
Recent 10 Goals Std
0.90
1.00
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.70
0.89
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.10
0.86
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.94
2.10
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.73
Overall performance9 signals
90
57
Matches
64
1.61
PPG
1.30
47.4%
Win rate
32.8%
19.3%
Draw rate
31.3%
33.3%
Loss rate
35.9%
68.4%
Over 1.5 rate
79.7%
54.4%
Over 2.5 rate
59.4%
33.3%
Over 3.5 rate
29.7%
1.93
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.73
Venue performance10 signals
100
29
Matches
35
1.83
PPG
1.26
55.2%
Win rate
28.6%
17.2%
Draw rate
40.0%
27.6%
Loss rate
31.4%
75.9%
Over 1.5 rate
77.1%
55.2%
Over 2.5 rate
51.4%
31.0%
Over 3.5 rate
25.7%
1.78
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.49
29
History Matches
35
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
1.51
Goals for per game
1.45
70.2%
Scoring rate
71.9%
43.9%
BTTS rate
56.3%
1.79
Goals for per game
1.29
75.9%
Scoring rate
65.7%
41.4%
BTTS rate
57.1%
1.00
Goals for per game
1.67
33.3%
Scoring rate
100.0%
0.0%
BTTS rate
100.0%
57
History Matches
64
1.51
Goals Mean
1.45
1.33
Goals Std
1.29
70.2%
Scored 1+ rate
71.9%
43.9%
Scored 2+ rate
42.2%
28.1%
Scored 3+ rate
23.4%
1.79
Venue Goals Mean
1.29
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
1.25
Goals against per game
1.50
63.2%
Conceding rate
75.0%
1.07
Goals against per game
1.40
51.7%
Conceding rate
77.1%
0.67
Goals against per game
2.00
33.3%
Conceding rate
100.0%
57
History Matches
64
1.25
Conceded Mean
1.50
1.38
Conceded Std
1.35
31.6%
Conceded 2+ rate
42.2%
15.8%
Conceded 3+ rate
18.8%
1.07
Venue Conceded Mean
1.40
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
36.8%
Clean-sheet rate
25.0%
29.8%
Failed-to-score rate
28.1%
48.3%
Clean-sheet rate
22.9%
24.1%
Failed-to-score rate
34.3%
66.7%
Clean-sheet rate
0.0%
66.7%
Failed-to-score rate
0.0%
36.8%
Clean-sheet rate
25.0%
29.8%
Failed-to-score rate
28.1%
48.3%
Clean-sheet rate
22.9%
24.1%
Failed-to-score rate
34.3%
36.8%
Clean-sheet rate
25.0%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
57
History Matches
64
0.94
Result entropy
1.00
1.93
Goal Difference Std
1.73
5.55
Stability score
0.15
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
56
Eligible Matches
62
17
Lead Matches
26
76.5%
Lead Win Rate
65.4%
0.82
Lead Points Retention
0.76
15
Trailing Matches
18
13.3%
Non-loss rate
22.2%
6.7%
Trailing Win Rate
5.6%
Goal timing5 signals
50
56
Halftime Coverage Matches
62
0.57
First Half Goals For Mean
0.73
0.52
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.65
0.95
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.74
0.75
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.84
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
77.15
Rest days
77.15
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
6
Short Rest History Matches
2
2.00
Short Rest Points Per Match
1.00
23
Normal Rest History Matches
37
1.17
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.54
27
Long Rest History Matches
24
1.85
Long Rest Points Per Match
0.96
Competition & season17 signals
170
3
Matches
3
1.33
PPG
1.33
33.3%
Win rate
33.3%
33.3%
Draw rate
33.3%
33.3%
Loss rate
33.3%
66.7%
Over 1.5 rate
100.0%
33.3%
Over 2.5 rate
66.7%
0.0%
Over 3.5 rate
66.7%
2.05
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.05
3
Current Competition Matches
3
1.33
Current Competition PPG
1.33
0.33
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
-0.33
6
Competition Season Count
7
4
Eligible Competition Season Count
5
0.76
Portability PPG Std
0.44
1.93
Portability PPG Range
1.20
39.79
Portability Score
53.31
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
57
Clean History Matches
64
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
ELO27.27
PPG0.32
GF0.06
GA-0.25
PPG0.00
PPG0.57
PPG0.00
PPG0.50
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches-7
Clean-sheet rate11.8%
Failed-to-score rate1.7%
History Matches-6
Clean-sheet rate25.4%
Failed-to-score rate-0.10
History Matches-7
Goals Mean0.06
Goals Std0.04
Scored 1+ rate-0.02
Scored 2+ rate1.7%
Scored 3+ rate4.6%
Venue Goals Mean0.51
Recent 10 Goals Mean0.00
Recent 10 Goals Std0.72
History Matches-7
Conceded Mean-0.25
Conceded Std0.03
Clean-sheet rate11.8%
Conceded 2+ rate-0.11
Conceded 3+ rate-0.03
Venue Conceded Mean-0.33
Recent 10 Conceded Mean-0.70
Recent 10 Conceded Std-0.21
History Matches-7
Result entropy-0.05
Goal Difference Std0.21
Stability score5.40
Recent 10 Result Entropy-0.08
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std0.37
Eligible Matches-6
Lead Matches-9
Lead Win Rate11.1%
Lead Points Retention0.07
Trailing Matches-3
Non-loss rate-0.09
Trailing Win Rate1.1%
Halftime Coverage Matches-6
First Half Goals For Mean-0.15
First Half Goals Against Mean-0.13
Second Half Goals For Mean0.20
Second Half Goals Against Mean-0.09
Current Competition Matches0
Current Competition PPG0.00
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean0.67
Competition Season Count-1
Eligible Competition Season Count-1
Portability PPG Std0.32
Portability PPG Range0.73
Portability Score-13.52
Rest days0.00
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches4
Short Rest Points Per Match1.00
Normal Rest History Matches-14
Normal Rest Points Per Match-0.37
Long Rest History Matches3
Long Rest Points Per Match0.89
Current Team ELO27.27
Current Opponent ELO-27.27
Current ELO Difference54.54
Expected score0.08
History Matches-7
Residual Mean0.03
Overperformance2.49
Recent 10 Residual Mean0.11

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Epitsentr Dunayivtsi

L
Zorya Luhansk1–0Epitsentr Dunayivtsi2 Nov · away
Pick: Zorya Luhansk 46% · hit
L
Epitsentr Dunayivtsi1–2FC Kharkiv24 Oct · home
Pick: Epitsentr Dunayivtsi 46% · missed
D
Karpaty2–2Epitsentr Dunayivtsi18 Oct · away
Pick: Karpaty 66% · missed
W
Karbon Cherkasy0–3Epitsentr Dunayivtsi9 Sep · away
Pick: Epitsentr Dunayivtsi 39% · hit
W
Kudrivka0–3Epitsentr Dunayivtsi29 Aug · away
Pick: Epitsentr Dunayivtsi 40% · hit

Kryvbas KR

L
Kryvbas KR0–2Dynamo Kyiv2 Nov · home
Pick: Dynamo Kyiv 51% · hit
L
Kryvbas KR0–3LNZ Cherkasy18 Oct · home
Pick: Kryvbas KR 41% · missed
L
Chornomorets1–0Kryvbas KR30 Aug · away
Pick: Kryvbas KR 41% · missed
Earlier results appear as match history is added

About this match

Epitsentr Dunayivtsi and Kryvbas KR meet in Premier League on Saturday 7 November 2026, kickoff 13:30 UTC. The match is played at Tonkocheyev Stadium, Kamianets-Podilskyi. ScoreProb published its prediction on 3 Nov, 07:46 UTC: Epitsentr Dunayivtsi win 44.1%, draw 22.1%, Kryvbas KR win 33.9%. The pick is Epitsentr Dunayivtsi win. Over 2.5 goals: 56.4%. Both teams to score: 55.4%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.