ScoreProb
4. liga - Divizie D Czechia Group D - 15 2026

Kuřim vs FS Třebíč

Kuřim Home · Elo 1,563
Sat 7 Nov
UTC
Not started
FS Třebíč Away · Elo 1,423
Venue to be confirmed Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Kuřim win
Kuřim winPick
71.7%
Draw
15.2%
FS Třebíč win
13.1%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Lineups · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Live stats · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes54.2%
No45.8%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.568.6%
Under 2.531.4%

How much we know

Kuřim history52 matches
FS Třebíč history53 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 0 h ahead
    1 Nov · 08:41 UTC
  2. Re-published 11 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 4 Nov · 07:21 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    7 Nov · 09:15 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 70–79% band (71.7%). Picks in that band won 76.2% of the time, and the model said 73.9% on average, over 583 matches.

Why Kuřim are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • Kuřim are rated 140 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,563 against 1,423. On rating alone Kuřim would be expected to take 69% of the points on offer.

  • Kuřim score far more

    1.98 goals a game over 52 matches for Kuřim, against 1.28 over 53 for FS Třebíč.

  • Kuřim concede fewer

    Kuřim concede 1.04 a game, FS Třebíč 1.91.

  • FS Třebíč games more often go over 2.5 goals

    50% of Kuřim matches, against 58% for FS Třebíč. The model puts this match at 69% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 23 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Kuřim
FS Třebíč@include('fixtures.partials.crest', ['team' => $away, 'size' => 'sm', 'lazy' => true])
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1563.5
ELO
1423.0
52
ELO · Matches
53
1563.5
Current Team ELO
1423.0
1423.0
Current Opponent ELO
1563.5
140.5
Current ELO Difference
-140.5
0.69
Expected score
0.31
52
History Matches
53
0.06
Residual Mean
-0.07
54.20
Overperformance
45.14
-0.05
Recent 10 Residual Mean
0.03
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
1.40
PPG
0.80
2.20
Goals for per game
1.40
2.20
Goals against per game
2.60
40.0%
Win rate
20.0%
10
Matches
10
1.70
PPG
1.20
2.70
Goals for per game
1.60
1.70
Goals against per game
2.30
50.0%
Win rate
30.0%
2.70
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.60
2.83
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.50
1.70
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
2.30
1.95
Recent 10 Conceded Std
2.05
0.94
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.99
3.85
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
2.37
Overall performance9 signals
90
52
Matches
53
1.85
PPG
1.02
53.8%
Win rate
22.6%
23.1%
Draw rate
34.0%
23.1%
Loss rate
43.4%
78.8%
Over 1.5 rate
79.2%
50.0%
Over 2.5 rate
58.5%
38.5%
Over 3.5 rate
39.6%
2.39
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.07
Venue performance10 signals
100
26
Matches
25
2.23
PPG
1.12
69.2%
Win rate
32.0%
15.4%
Draw rate
16.0%
15.4%
Loss rate
52.0%
80.8%
Over 1.5 rate
84.0%
57.7%
Over 2.5 rate
64.0%
46.2%
Over 3.5 rate
36.0%
2.77
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.32
26
History Matches
25
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
1.98
Goals for per game
1.28
76.9%
Scoring rate
71.7%
44.2%
BTTS rate
60.4%
2.35
Goals for per game
1.24
80.8%
Scoring rate
72.0%
38.5%
BTTS rate
56.0%
3.33
Goals for per game
0.67
100.0%
Scoring rate
33.3%
66.7%
BTTS rate
33.3%
52
History Matches
53
1.98
Goals Mean
1.28
1.81
Goals Std
1.22
76.9%
Scored 1+ rate
71.7%
55.8%
Scored 2+ rate
32.1%
34.6%
Scored 3+ rate
15.1%
2.35
Venue Goals Mean
1.24
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
1.04
Goals against per game
1.91
59.6%
Conceding rate
83.0%
0.96
Goals against per game
2.04
50.0%
Conceding rate
84.0%
1.00
Goals against per game
2.33
66.7%
Conceding rate
100.0%
52
History Matches
53
1.04
Conceded Mean
1.91
1.29
Conceded Std
1.64
25.0%
Conceded 2+ rate
47.2%
9.6%
Conceded 3+ rate
26.4%
0.96
Venue Conceded Mean
2.04
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
40.4%
Clean-sheet rate
17.0%
23.1%
Failed-to-score rate
28.3%
50.0%
Clean-sheet rate
16.0%
19.2%
Failed-to-score rate
28.0%
33.3%
Clean-sheet rate
0.0%
0.0%
Failed-to-score rate
66.7%
40.4%
Clean-sheet rate
17.0%
23.1%
Failed-to-score rate
28.3%
50.0%
Clean-sheet rate
16.0%
19.2%
Failed-to-score rate
28.0%
40.4%
Clean-sheet rate
17.0%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
52
History Matches
53
0.92
Result entropy
0.97
2.39
Goal Difference Std
2.07
8.06
Stability score
3.03
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
52
Eligible Matches
51
25
Lead Matches
12
84.0%
Lead Win Rate
83.3%
0.89
Lead Points Retention
0.89
7
Trailing Matches
22
42.9%
Non-loss rate
31.8%
0.0%
Trailing Win Rate
4.5%
Goal timing5 signals
50
52
Halftime Coverage Matches
51
0.94
First Half Goals For Mean
0.55
0.38
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.88
1.04
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.69
0.65
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.90
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
77.04
Rest days
76.78
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
2
Short Rest History Matches
1
1.00
Short Rest Points Per Match
0.00
25
Normal Rest History Matches
29
2.12
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.28
24
Long Rest History Matches
22
1.58
Long Rest Points Per Match
0.77
Competition & season17 signals
170
3
Matches
3
2.00
PPG
1.00
66.7%
Win rate
33.3%
0.0%
Draw rate
0.0%
33.3%
Loss rate
66.7%
66.7%
Over 1.5 rate
66.7%
66.7%
Over 2.5 rate
66.7%
33.3%
Over 3.5 rate
33.3%
3.40
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.49
3
Current Competition Matches
3
2.00
Current Competition PPG
1.00
2.33
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
-1.67
6
Competition Season Count
6
3
Eligible Competition Season Count
5
0.13
Portability PPG Std
0.35
0.30
Portability PPG Range
1.00
79.88
Portability Score
58.56
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
52
Clean History Matches
53
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
ELO140.5
PPG0.83
GF0.70
GA-0.87
PPG1.00
PPG1.11
PPG0.60
PPG0.50
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches-1
Clean-sheet rate23.4%
Failed-to-score rate-0.05
History Matches1
Clean-sheet rate34.0%
Failed-to-score rate-0.09
History Matches-1
Goals Mean0.70
Goals Std0.59
Scored 1+ rate5.2%
Scored 2+ rate23.7%
Scored 3+ rate19.5%
Venue Goals Mean1.11
Recent 10 Goals Mean1.10
Recent 10 Goals Std1.33
History Matches-1
Conceded Mean-0.87
Conceded Std-0.35
Clean-sheet rate23.4%
Conceded 2+ rate-0.22
Conceded 3+ rate-0.17
Venue Conceded Mean-1.08
Recent 10 Conceded Mean-0.60
Recent 10 Conceded Std-0.10
History Matches-1
Result entropy-0.05
Goal Difference Std0.32
Stability score5.03
Recent 10 Result Entropy-0.05
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std1.48
Eligible Matches1
Lead Matches13
Lead Win Rate0.7%
Lead Points Retention0.00
Trailing Matches-15
Non-loss rate11.0%
Trailing Win Rate-0.05
Halftime Coverage Matches1
First Half Goals For Mean0.39
First Half Goals Against Mean-0.50
Second Half Goals For Mean0.35
Second Half Goals Against Mean-0.25
Current Competition Matches0
Current Competition PPG1.00
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean4.00
Competition Season Count0
Eligible Competition Season Count-2
Portability PPG Std-0.23
Portability PPG Range-0.70
Portability Score21.32
Rest days0.26
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches1
Short Rest Points Per Match1.00
Normal Rest History Matches-4
Normal Rest Points Per Match0.84
Long Rest History Matches2
Long Rest Points Per Match0.81
Current Team ELO140.5
Current Opponent ELO-140.5
Current ELO Difference280.9
Expected score0.38
History Matches-1
Residual Mean0.13
Overperformance9.06
Recent 10 Residual Mean-0.08

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Kuřim

D
Sparta Brno2–2Kuřim31 Oct · away
Pick: Kuřim 57% · missed
W
Kuřim7–0Bystrc Kníničky24 Oct · home
Pick: Kuřim 70% · hit
W
Velká Bíteš1–3Kuřim18 Oct · away
Pick: Kuřim 48% · hit
W
Havlíčkův Brod1–3Kuřim29 Aug · away
Pick: Kuřim 38% · hit
Earlier results appear as match history is added

FS Třebíč

W
FS Třebíč1–0Bedrichov31 Oct · home
Pick: FS Třebíč 55% · hit
D
Velké Meziříčí1–1FS Třebíč25 Oct · away
Pick: Velké Meziříčí 52% · missed
W
FS Třebíč4–2Pelhřimov17 Oct · home
Pick: FS Třebíč 40% · hit
Earlier results appear as match history is added

About this match

Kuřim and FS Třebíč meet in 4. liga - Divizie D on Saturday 7 November 2026, kickoff 09:15 UTC. ScoreProb published its prediction on 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC: Kuřim win 71.7%, draw 15.2%, FS Třebíč win 13.1%. The pick is Kuřim win. Over 2.5 goals: 68.6%. Both teams to score: 54.2%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.