ScoreProb
4. liga - Divizie D Czechia Group D - 15 2026

Velké Meziříčí vs Chotebor

Velké Meziříčí Home · Elo 1,483
Sun 8 Nov
UTC
Not started
Chotebor Away · Elo 1,440
Venue to be confirmed Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 2 Nov, 08:51 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Velké Meziříčí win
Velké Meziříčí winPick
66.0%
Draw
16.0%
Chotebor win
18.0%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Lineups · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Live stats · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes60.0%
No40.0%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.566.8%
Under 2.533.2%

How much we know

Velké Meziříčí history50 matches
Chotebor history37 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 0 h ahead
    2 Nov · 08:51 UTC
  2. Re-published 2 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 2 Nov · 20:35 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    8 Nov · 09:15 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 60–69% band (66.0%). Picks in that band won 63.6% of the time, and the model said 64.3% on average, over 1,851 matches.

Why Velké Meziříčí are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • Velké Meziříčí are rated 43 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,483 against 1,440. On rating alone Velké Meziříčí would be expected to take 56% of the points on offer.

  • Velké Meziříčí score more

    1.54 goals a game over 50 matches for Velké Meziříčí, against 1.14 over 37 for Chotebor.

  • Velké Meziříčí concede fewer

    Velké Meziříčí concede 1.72 a game, Chotebor 2.19.

  • Both teams play a similar number of high-scoring games

    68% of Velké Meziříčí matches, against 62% for Chotebor. The model puts this match at 67% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 22 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Velké Meziříčí
Chotebor
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1483.4
ELO
1440.5
50
ELO · Matches
37
1483.4
Current Team ELO
1440.5
1440.5
Current Opponent ELO
1483.4
42.89
Current ELO Difference
-42.89
0.56
Expected score
0.44
50
History Matches
37
-0.02
Residual Mean
-0.07
48.56
Overperformance
45.36
0.08
Recent 10 Residual Mean
-0.10
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
0.40
PPG
0.80
0.60
Goals for per game
1.20
1.80
Goals against per game
3.60
0.0%
Win rate
20.0%
10
Matches
10
1.70
PPG
1.00
1.70
Goals for per game
1.30
1.30
Goals against per game
2.60
50.0%
Win rate
30.0%
1.70
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.30
1.42
Recent 10 Goals Std
0.78
1.30
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
2.60
1.00
Recent 10 Conceded Std
2.42
0.94
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.82
1.96
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
2.76
Overall performance9 signals
90
50
Matches
37
1.32
PPG
1.11
36.0%
Win rate
32.4%
24.0%
Draw rate
13.5%
40.0%
Loss rate
54.1%
90.0%
Over 1.5 rate
83.8%
68.0%
Over 2.5 rate
62.2%
40.0%
Over 3.5 rate
40.5%
2.04
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.46
Venue performance10 signals
100
24
Matches
17
1.42
PPG
0.47
37.5%
Win rate
11.8%
29.2%
Draw rate
11.8%
33.3%
Loss rate
76.5%
91.7%
Over 1.5 rate
94.1%
66.7%
Over 2.5 rate
76.5%
33.3%
Over 3.5 rate
41.2%
1.86
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.14
24
History Matches
17
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
1.54
Goals for per game
1.14
78.0%
Scoring rate
67.6%
66.0%
BTTS rate
51.4%
1.50
Goals for per game
0.88
79.2%
Scoring rate
58.8%
70.8%
BTTS rate
58.8%
0.67
Goals for per game
1.00
66.7%
Scoring rate
66.7%
66.7%
BTTS rate
66.7%
50
History Matches
37
1.54
Goals Mean
1.14
1.19
Goals Std
1.12
78.0%
Scored 1+ rate
67.6%
50.0%
Scored 2+ rate
27.0%
18.0%
Scored 3+ rate
13.5%
1.50
Venue Goals Mean
0.88
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
1.72
Goals against per game
2.19
86.0%
Conceding rate
83.8%
1.63
Goals against per game
2.88
87.5%
Conceding rate
100.0%
1.33
Goals against per game
4.00
66.7%
Conceding rate
100.0%
50
History Matches
37
1.72
Conceded Mean
2.19
1.34
Conceded Std
1.87
46.0%
Conceded 2+ rate
56.8%
22.0%
Conceded 3+ rate
32.4%
1.63
Venue Conceded Mean
2.88
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
14.0%
Clean-sheet rate
16.2%
22.0%
Failed-to-score rate
32.4%
12.5%
Clean-sheet rate
0.0%
20.8%
Failed-to-score rate
41.2%
33.3%
Clean-sheet rate
0.0%
33.3%
Failed-to-score rate
33.3%
14.0%
Clean-sheet rate
16.2%
22.0%
Failed-to-score rate
32.4%
12.5%
Clean-sheet rate
0.0%
20.8%
Failed-to-score rate
41.2%
14.0%
Clean-sheet rate
16.2%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
50
History Matches
37
0.98
Result entropy
0.88
2.04
Goal Difference Std
2.46
1.98
Stability score
11.87
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
50
Eligible Matches
37
18
Lead Matches
8
66.7%
Lead Win Rate
87.5%
0.76
Lead Points Retention
0.92
21
Trailing Matches
19
19.0%
Non-loss rate
15.8%
9.5%
Trailing Win Rate
0.0%
Goal timing5 signals
50
50
Halftime Coverage Matches
37
0.76
First Half Goals For Mean
0.49
0.88
First Half Goals Against Mean
1.00
0.78
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.65
0.84
Second Half Goals Against Mean
1.19
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
78.74
Rest days
78.03
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
0
Short Rest History Matches
1
—
Short Rest Points Per Match
0.00
22
Normal Rest History Matches
25
1.64
Normal Rest Points Per Match
0.88
27
Long Rest History Matches
10
1.11
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.60
Competition & season17 signals
170
3
Matches
3
0.67
PPG
0.33
0.0%
Win rate
0.0%
66.7%
Draw rate
33.3%
33.3%
Loss rate
66.7%
66.7%
Over 1.5 rate
100.0%
33.3%
Over 2.5 rate
66.7%
33.3%
Over 3.5 rate
66.7%
0.94
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.94
3
Current Competition Matches
3
0.67
Current Competition PPG
0.33
-0.67
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
-3.00
6
Competition Season Count
4
3
Eligible Competition Season Count
2
0.37
Portability PPG Std
0.40
0.82
Portability PPG Range
0.80
57.69
Portability Score
55.56
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
50
Clean History Matches
37
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scoreShort Rest Points Per Match
ELO42.89
PPG0.21
GF0.40
GA-0.47
PPG0.33
PPG0.95
PPG-0.40
PPG0.70
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches13
Clean-sheet rate-0.02
Failed-to-score rate-0.10
History Matches7
Clean-sheet rate12.5%
Failed-to-score rate-0.20
History Matches13
Goals Mean0.40
Goals Std0.07
Scored 1+ rate10.4%
Scored 2+ rate23.0%
Scored 3+ rate4.5%
Venue Goals Mean0.62
Recent 10 Goals Mean0.40
Recent 10 Goals Std0.64
History Matches13
Conceded Mean-0.47
Conceded Std-0.53
Clean-sheet rate-0.02
Conceded 2+ rate-0.11
Conceded 3+ rate-0.10
Venue Conceded Mean-1.26
Recent 10 Conceded Mean-1.30
Recent 10 Conceded Std-1.41
History Matches13
Result entropy0.10
Goal Difference Std-0.42
Stability score-9.89
Recent 10 Result Entropy0.12
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std-0.80
Eligible Matches13
Lead Matches10
Lead Win Rate-0.21
Lead Points Retention-0.16
Trailing Matches2
Non-loss rate3.3%
Trailing Win Rate9.5%
Halftime Coverage Matches13
First Half Goals For Mean0.27
First Half Goals Against Mean-0.12
Second Half Goals For Mean0.13
Second Half Goals Against Mean-0.35
Current Competition Matches0
Current Competition PPG0.33
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean2.33
Competition Season Count2
Eligible Competition Season Count1
Portability PPG Std-0.03
Portability PPG Range0.02
Portability Score2.13
Rest days0.71
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches-1
Normal Rest History Matches-3
Normal Rest Points Per Match0.76
Long Rest History Matches17
Long Rest Points Per Match-0.49
Current Team ELO42.89
Current Opponent ELO-42.89
Current ELO Difference85.79
Expected score0.12
History Matches13
Residual Mean0.05
Overperformance3.20
Recent 10 Residual Mean0.18

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Velké Meziříčí

W
Žďár nad Sázavou1–2Velké Meziříčí1 Nov · away
Pick: Žďár nad Sázavou 51% · missed
D
Velké Meziříčí1–1FS Třebíč25 Oct · home
Pick: Velké Meziříčí 52% · missed
L
Sparta Brno5–1Velké Meziříčí17 Oct · away
Pick: Sparta Brno 46% · hit
Earlier results appear as match history is added

Chotebor

L
Chotebor2–4Pelhřimov31 Oct · home
Pick: Pelhřimov 46% · hit
D
Ždírec nad Doubravou0–0Chotebor25 Oct · away
Pick: Ždírec nad Doubravou 61% · missed
D
Chotebor1–1Tatran Bohunice17 Oct · home
Pick: Tatran Bohunice 69% · missed
L
Chotebor0–1Havlíčkův Brod4 Oct · home
Pick: Havlíčkův Brod 53% · hit
Earlier results appear as match history is added

About this match

Velké Meziříčí and Chotebor meet in 4. liga - Divizie D on Sunday 8 November 2026, kickoff 09:15 UTC. ScoreProb published its prediction on 2 Nov, 08:51 UTC: Velké Meziříčí win 66.0%, draw 16.0%, Chotebor win 18.0%. The pick is Velké Meziříčí win. Over 2.5 goals: 66.8%. Both teams to score: 60.0%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.