ScoreProb
4. liga - Divizie D Czechia Group D - 15 2026

Pelhřimov vs Znojmo

Pelhřimov Home · Elo 1,491
Sun 8 Nov
UTC
Not started
Znojmo Away · Elo 1,471
Venue to be confirmed Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 2 Nov, 08:51 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Znojmo win
Pelhřimov win
33.1%
Draw
20.0%
Znojmo winPick
46.9%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Lineups · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Live stats · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes63.3%
No36.7%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.565.2%
Under 2.534.8%

How much we know

Pelhřimov history32 matches
Znojmo history57 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 4 h ahead
    2 Nov · 08:51 UTC
  2. Re-published 2 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 2 Nov · 20:35 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    8 Nov · 13:00 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 40–49% band (46.9%). Picks in that band won 45.4% of the time, and the model said 44.8% on average, over 6,162 matches.

Why Znojmo are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • The Elo ratings are level

    Elo 1,491 against 1,471. On rating alone the teams are close to even.

  • Pelhřimov score more

    1.63 goals a game over 32 matches for Pelhřimov, against 1.42 over 57 for Znojmo.

  • Defences are close

    Pelhřimov concede 2.00 a game, Znojmo 1.95.

  • Both teams play a similar number of high-scoring games

    66% of Pelhřimov matches, against 65% for Znojmo. The model puts this match at 65% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 24 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Pelhřimov
Znojmo
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1491.0
ELO
1471.3
32
ELO · Matches
57
1491.0
Current Team ELO
1471.3
1471.3
Current Opponent ELO
1491.0
19.68
Current ELO Difference
-19.68
0.53
Expected score
0.47
32
History Matches
57
-0.01
Residual Mean
-0.03
49.10
Overperformance
47.97
-0.07
Recent 10 Residual Mean
0.11
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
1.40
PPG
1.20
1.40
Goals for per game
1.00
1.40
Goals against per game
1.00
40.0%
Win rate
20.0%
10
Matches
10
1.30
PPG
1.50
1.70
Goals for per game
2.50
2.50
Goals against per game
1.30
40.0%
Win rate
40.0%
1.70
Recent 10 Goals Mean
2.50
1.35
Recent 10 Goals Std
2.84
2.50
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.30
2.25
Recent 10 Conceded Std
0.78
0.86
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.99
2.99
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
3.06
Overall performance9 signals
90
32
Matches
57
1.38
PPG
1.05
37.5%
Win rate
28.1%
25.0%
Draw rate
21.1%
37.5%
Loss rate
50.9%
84.4%
Over 1.5 rate
82.5%
65.6%
Over 2.5 rate
64.9%
43.8%
Over 3.5 rate
45.6%
2.25
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.81
Venue performance10 signals
100
16
Matches
30
1.69
PPG
0.83
50.0%
Win rate
20.0%
18.8%
Draw rate
23.3%
31.3%
Loss rate
56.7%
87.5%
Over 1.5 rate
80.0%
68.8%
Over 2.5 rate
56.7%
31.3%
Over 3.5 rate
33.3%
2.16
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.08
16
History Matches
30
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
1.63
Goals for per game
1.42
81.3%
Scoring rate
70.2%
68.8%
BTTS rate
56.1%
1.81
Goals for per game
1.03
81.3%
Scoring rate
63.3%
62.5%
BTTS rate
53.3%
1.33
Goals for per game
1.00
100.0%
Scoring rate
66.7%
66.7%
BTTS rate
66.7%
32
History Matches
57
1.63
Goals Mean
1.42
1.39
Goals Std
1.71
81.3%
Scored 1+ rate
70.2%
40.6%
Scored 2+ rate
33.3%
21.9%
Scored 3+ rate
14.0%
1.81
Venue Goals Mean
1.03
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
2.00
Goals against per game
1.95
87.5%
Conceding rate
80.7%
1.63
Goals against per game
1.77
81.3%
Conceding rate
83.3%
1.33
Goals against per game
0.67
66.7%
Conceding rate
66.7%
32
History Matches
57
2.00
Conceded Mean
1.95
1.66
Conceded Std
1.77
53.1%
Conceded 2+ rate
50.9%
28.1%
Conceded 3+ rate
28.1%
1.63
Venue Conceded Mean
1.77
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
12.5%
Clean-sheet rate
19.3%
18.8%
Failed-to-score rate
29.8%
18.8%
Clean-sheet rate
16.7%
18.8%
Failed-to-score rate
36.7%
33.3%
Clean-sheet rate
33.3%
0.0%
Failed-to-score rate
33.3%
12.5%
Clean-sheet rate
19.3%
18.8%
Failed-to-score rate
29.8%
18.8%
Clean-sheet rate
16.7%
18.8%
Failed-to-score rate
36.7%
12.5%
Clean-sheet rate
19.3%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
32
History Matches
57
0.99
Result entropy
0.94
2.25
Goal Difference Std
2.81
1.49
Stability score
6.39
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
31
Eligible Matches
55
13
Lead Matches
16
69.2%
Lead Win Rate
56.3%
0.77
Lead Points Retention
0.69
7
Trailing Matches
19
28.6%
Non-loss rate
10.5%
0.0%
Trailing Win Rate
0.0%
Goal timing5 signals
50
31
Halftime Coverage Matches
55
0.94
First Half Goals For Mean
0.65
0.65
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.78
0.74
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.76
1.26
Second Half Goals Against Mean
1.16
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
76.94
Rest days
77.94
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
0
Short Rest History Matches
2
—
Short Rest Points Per Match
0.50
17
Normal Rest History Matches
30
1.06
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.17
14
Long Rest History Matches
24
1.64
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.00
Competition & season17 signals
170
3
Matches
3
1.33
PPG
1.67
33.3%
Win rate
33.3%
33.3%
Draw rate
66.7%
33.3%
Loss rate
0.0%
66.7%
Over 1.5 rate
66.7%
66.7%
Over 2.5 rate
33.3%
33.3%
Over 3.5 rate
0.0%
0.82
Goal difference · Standard deviation
0.47
3
Current Competition Matches
3
1.33
Current Competition PPG
1.67
0.00
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
0.33
2
Competition Season Count
6
2
Eligible Competition Season Count
4
0.02
Portability PPG Std
0.62
0.05
Portability PPG Range
1.55
95.60
Portability Score
44.58
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
32
Clean History Matches
57
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scoreShort Rest Points Per Match
ELO19.68
PPG0.32
GF0.20
GA0.05
PPG-0.33
PPG0.85
PPG0.20
PPG-0.20
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches-25
Clean-sheet rate-0.07
Failed-to-score rate-0.11
History Matches-14
Clean-sheet rate2.1%
Failed-to-score rate-0.18
History Matches-25
Goals Mean0.20
Goals Std-0.32
Scored 1+ rate11.1%
Scored 2+ rate7.3%
Scored 3+ rate7.8%
Venue Goals Mean0.78
Recent 10 Goals Mean-0.80
Recent 10 Goals Std-1.49
History Matches-25
Conceded Mean0.05
Conceded Std-0.11
Clean-sheet rate-0.07
Conceded 2+ rate2.2%
Conceded 3+ rate0.1%
Venue Conceded Mean-0.14
Recent 10 Conceded Mean1.20
Recent 10 Conceded Std1.47
History Matches-25
Result entropy0.05
Goal Difference Std-0.56
Stability score-4.89
Recent 10 Result Entropy-0.13
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std-0.07
Eligible Matches-24
Lead Matches-3
Lead Win Rate13.0%
Lead Points Retention0.08
Trailing Matches-12
Non-loss rate18.0%
Trailing Win Rate0.0%
Halftime Coverage Matches-24
First Half Goals For Mean0.28
First Half Goals Against Mean-0.14
Second Half Goals For Mean-0.02
Second Half Goals Against Mean0.09
Current Competition Matches0
Current Competition PPG-0.33
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean-0.33
Competition Season Count-4
Eligible Competition Season Count-2
Portability PPG Std-0.60
Portability PPG Range-1.50
Portability Score51.03
Rest days-1.00
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches-2
Normal Rest History Matches-13
Normal Rest Points Per Match-0.11
Long Rest History Matches-10
Long Rest Points Per Match0.64
Current Team ELO19.68
Current Opponent ELO-19.68
Current ELO Difference39.36
Expected score0.06
History Matches-25
Residual Mean0.01
Overperformance1.13
Recent 10 Residual Mean-0.18

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Pelhřimov

W
Chotebor2–4Pelhřimov31 Oct · away
Pick: Pelhřimov 46% · hit
L
Pelhřimov0–4Žďár nad Sázavou25 Oct · home
Pick: Žďár nad Sázavou 50% · hit
L
FS Třebíč4–2Pelhřimov17 Oct · away
Pick: FS Třebíč 40% · hit
D
Ždírec nad Doubravou2–2Pelhřimov30 Aug · away
Pick: Ždírec nad Doubravou 45% · missed
Earlier results appear as match history is added

Znojmo

D
Znojmo2–2Ždírec nad Doubravou1 Nov · home
Pick: Znojmo 58% · missed
L
Tatran Bohunice2–1Znojmo24 Oct · away
Pick: Tatran Bohunice 59% · hit
W
Znojmo1–0Sokol Tasovice18 Oct · home
Pick: Znojmo 45% · hit
L
Znojmo0–2Humpolec4 Oct · home
Pick: Znojmo 52% · missed
W
Znojmo3–0Sparta Brno29 Aug · home
Pick: Znojmo 49% · hit

About this match

Pelhřimov and Znojmo meet in 4. liga - Divizie D on Sunday 8 November 2026, kickoff 13:00 UTC. ScoreProb published its prediction on 2 Nov, 08:51 UTC: Pelhřimov win 33.1%, draw 20.0%, Znojmo win 46.9%. The pick is Znojmo win. Over 2.5 goals: 65.2%. Both teams to score: 63.3%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.