Lanciano FC vs Maceratese
Lanciano FC
Sun 8 Nov
UTC
Not started
Maceratese
Match result probability Model pick: Maceratese win
Lanciano FC win
36.0%
Draw
23.9%
Maceratese winPick
40.1%
At kickoff this becomes the match centre
Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.
Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Lineups · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Live stats · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect
Both teams to score
Yes51.8%
No48.2%
Total goals · 2.5
Over 2.555.1%
Under 2.544.9%
How much we know
Lanciano FC history0 matches
Maceratese history29 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news
Your call
Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.
Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score
Match result: ours Maceratese
Over / under 2.5: ours Over
Both teams to score: ours Yes
Life of this match
One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.
- Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 4 h ahead2 Nov · 08:51 UTC
- Re-published 2 more timesThe numbers did not changeLatest 2 Nov · 20:35 UTC
- Lineups appearAbout an hour before kickoff, where the competition provides them. This prediction does not use lineups.≈ 12:30 UTC
- KickoffThis page becomes the match centre8 Nov · 13:30 UTC
- Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
- Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC
How reliable are picks like this?
Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 40–49% band (40.1%). Picks in that band won 45.4% of the time, and the model said 44.8% on average, over 6,162 matches.
Why Maceratese are the pick
Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.
-
Lanciano FC are rated 43 Elo points higher
Elo 1,500 against 1,457. On rating alone Lanciano FC would be expected to take 56% of the points on offer.
These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.
Compare the two teams
Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.
Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Lanciano FC
Maceratese
ELO & ratings10 signals 100
1500.0
ELO
1457.4
0
ELO · Matches
29
1500.0
Current Team ELO
1457.4
1457.4
Current Opponent ELO
1500.0
42.60
Current ELO Difference
-42.60
0.56
Expected score
0.44
0
History Matches
29
—
Residual Mean
-0.08
—
Overperformance
45.51
—
Recent 10 Residual Mean
-0.07
Recent form16 signals 160
0
Matches
5
—
PPG
1.00
—
Goals for per game
1.00
—
Goals against per game
1.60
—
Win rate
20.0%
0
Matches
10
—
PPG
1.10
—
Goals for per game
1.00
—
Goals against per game
1.60
—
Win rate
30.0%
—
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.00
—
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.10
—
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.60
—
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.11
—
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.94
—
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.96
Overall performance9 signals 90
0
Matches
29
—
PPG
1.10
—
Win rate
31.0%
—
Draw rate
17.2%
—
Loss rate
51.7%
—
Over 1.5 rate
79.3%
—
Over 2.5 rate
69.0%
—
Over 3.5 rate
34.5%
—
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.14
Venue performance10 signals 100
0
Matches
15
—
PPG
0.47
—
Win rate
6.7%
—
Draw rate
26.7%
—
Loss rate
66.7%
—
Over 1.5 rate
73.3%
—
Over 2.5 rate
66.7%
—
Over 3.5 rate
40.0%
—
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.98
0
History Matches
15
Scoring & attack16 signals 160
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals for per gameScoring rateBTTS rate
—
Goals for per game
1.28
—
Scoring rate
65.5%
—
BTTS rate
51.7%
—
Goals for per game
0.87
—
Scoring rate
46.7%
—
BTTS rate
40.0%
0
History Matches
29
—
Goals Mean
1.28
—
Goals Std
1.20
—
Scored 1+ rate
65.5%
—
Scored 2+ rate
41.4%
—
Scored 3+ rate
13.8%
—
Venue Goals Mean
0.87
Defense & conceding12 signals 120
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals against per gameConceding rate
—
Goals against per game
1.62
—
Conceding rate
82.8%
—
Goals against per game
1.93
—
Conceding rate
86.7%
0
History Matches
29
—
Conceded Mean
1.62
—
Conceded Std
1.32
—
Conceded 2+ rate
44.8%
—
Conceded 3+ rate
17.2%
—
Venue Conceded Mean
1.93
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals 110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Clean-sheet rateFailed-to-score rate
—
Clean-sheet rate
17.2%
—
Failed-to-score rate
34.5%
—
Clean-sheet rate
13.3%
—
Failed-to-score rate
53.3%
—
Clean-sheet rate
17.2%
—
Failed-to-score rate
34.5%
—
Clean-sheet rate
13.3%
—
Failed-to-score rate
53.3%
—
Clean-sheet rate
17.2%
Volatility & stability4 signals 40
0
History Matches
29
—
Result entropy
0.92
—
Goal Difference Std
2.14
—
Stability score
8.32
Halftime resilience7 signals 70
0
Eligible Matches
28
0
Lead Matches
6
—
Lead Win Rate
83.3%
—
Lead Points Retention
0.89
0
Trailing Matches
8
—
Non-loss rate
37.5%
—
Trailing Win Rate
25.0%
Goal timing5 signals 50
0
Halftime Coverage Matches
28
—
First Half Goals For Mean
0.54
—
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.57
—
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.79
—
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.93
Rest & schedule9 signals 90
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Short Rest Points Per Match
—
Rest days
189.0
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
0
Short Rest History Matches
0
0
Normal Rest History Matches
17
—
Normal Rest Points Per Match
0.82
0
Long Rest History Matches
11
—
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.64
Competition & season17 signals 170
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin rateDraw rateLoss rateOver 1.5 rateOver 2.5 rateOver 3.5 rateGoal difference · Standard deviationCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference MeanPortability PPG StdPortability PPG RangePortability Score
0
Matches
0
0
Current Competition Matches
0
0
Competition Season Count
2
0
Eligible Competition Season Count
1
Odds & market11 signals 110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal 10
0
Clean History Matches
29
Matchup differences86 signals 086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGGFGAPPGPPGPPGPPGWin ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scoreClean-sheet rateFailed-to-score rateClean-sheet rateFailed-to-score rateGoals MeanGoals StdScored 1+ rateScored 2+ rateScored 3+ rateVenue Goals MeanRecent 10 Goals MeanRecent 10 Goals StdConceded MeanConceded StdClean-sheet rateConceded 2+ rateConceded 3+ rateVenue Conceded MeanRecent 10 Conceded MeanRecent 10 Conceded StdResult entropyGoal Difference StdStability scoreRecent 10 Result EntropyRecent 10 Goal Difference StdLead Win RateLead Points RetentionNon-loss rateTrailing Win RateFirst Half Goals For MeanFirst Half Goals Against MeanSecond Half Goals For MeanSecond Half Goals Against MeanCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference MeanPortability PPG StdPortability PPG RangePortability ScoreRest daysShort Rest Points Per MatchNormal Rest Points Per MatchLong Rest Points Per MatchResidual MeanOverperformanceRecent 10 Residual Mean
ELO42.60
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches-29
History Matches-15
History Matches-29
History Matches-29
History Matches-29
Eligible Matches-28
Lead Matches-6
Trailing Matches-8
Halftime Coverage Matches-28
Current Competition Matches0
Competition Season Count-2
Eligible Competition Season Count-1
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches0
Normal Rest History Matches-17
Long Rest History Matches-11
Current Team ELO42.60
Current Opponent ELO-42.60
Current ELO Difference85.21
Expected score0.12
History Matches-29
Latest results, with our pick
Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.
Lanciano FC
L
Teramo2–0Lanciano FC1 Nov · away
Pick: Teramo 73% · hit D
Lanciano FC0–0Notaresco25 Oct · home
Pick: Notaresco 37% · missed L
Atletico Ascoli5–1Lanciano FC18 Oct · away
Pick: Atletico Ascoli 69% · hit L
Termoli Calcio2–0Lanciano FC4 Oct · away
Pick: Termoli Calcio 66% · hit Earlier results appear as match history is added
Maceratese
L
Notaresco5–2Maceratese18 Oct · away
Pick: Notaresco 64% · hit W
Recanatese2–3Maceratese4 Oct · away
Pick: Recanatese 54% · missed Earlier results appear as match history is added
About this match
Lanciano FC and Maceratese meet in Serie D - Girone F on Sunday 8 November 2026, kickoff 13:30 UTC. ScoreProb published its prediction on 2 Nov, 08:51 UTC: Lanciano FC win 36.0%, draw 23.9%, Maceratese win 40.1%. The pick is Maceratese win. Over 2.5 goals: 55.1%. Both teams to score: 51.8%.
Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.