ScoreProb
Serie D - Girone F Italy Group F - 11 2026

Real Giulianova vs Recanatese

Real Giulianova Home · Elo 1,538
Sun 8 Nov
UTC
Not started
Recanatese Away · Elo 1,453
Venue to be confirmed Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 2 Nov, 08:51 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Real Giulianova win
Real Giulianova winPick
40.3%
Draw
25.9%
Recanatese win
33.9%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Lineups · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Live stats · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes54.2%
No45.8%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.551.4%
Under 2.548.6%

How much we know

Real Giulianova history34 matches
Recanatese history49 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 4 h ahead
    2 Nov · 08:51 UTC
  2. Re-published 2 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 2 Nov · 20:35 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    8 Nov · 13:30 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 40–49% band (40.3%). Picks in that band won 45.4% of the time, and the model said 44.8% on average, over 6,162 matches.

Why Real Giulianova are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • Real Giulianova are rated 86 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,538 against 1,453. On rating alone Real Giulianova would be expected to take 62% of the points on offer.

  • Scoring rates are level

    1.18 goals a game over 34 matches for Real Giulianova, against 1.22 over 49 for Recanatese.

  • Real Giulianova concede fewer

    Real Giulianova concede 0.91 a game, Recanatese 1.63.

  • Recanatese games more often go over 2.5 goals

    38% of Real Giulianova matches, against 51% for Recanatese. The model puts this match at 51% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 18 May 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Real Giulianova
Recanatese
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1538.1
ELO
1452.6
34
ELO · Matches
49
1538.1
Current Team ELO
1452.6
1452.6
Current Opponent ELO
1538.1
85.50
Current ELO Difference
-85.50
0.62
Expected score
0.38
34
History Matches
49
0.06
Residual Mean
-0.05
53.55
Overperformance
46.80
0.01
Recent 10 Residual Mean
0.09
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
1.20
PPG
2.00
1.00
Goals for per game
2.20
0.40
Goals against per game
1.00
20.0%
Win rate
60.0%
10
Matches
10
1.40
PPG
1.40
1.10
Goals for per game
1.50
0.70
Goals against per game
1.20
30.0%
Win rate
40.0%
1.10
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.50
1.22
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.12
0.70
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.20
0.78
Recent 10 Conceded Std
0.87
0.94
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.96
1.36
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.55
Overall performance9 signals
90
34
Matches
49
1.44
PPG
1.06
32.4%
Win rate
26.5%
47.1%
Draw rate
26.5%
20.6%
Loss rate
46.9%
61.8%
Over 1.5 rate
87.8%
38.2%
Over 2.5 rate
51.0%
17.6%
Over 3.5 rate
30.6%
1.27
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.55
Venue performance10 signals
100
17
Matches
24
1.88
PPG
0.67
52.9%
Win rate
12.5%
29.4%
Draw rate
29.2%
17.6%
Loss rate
58.3%
76.5%
Over 1.5 rate
87.5%
64.7%
Over 2.5 rate
45.8%
35.3%
Over 3.5 rate
25.0%
1.61
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.40
17
History Matches
24
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals for per gameScoring rateBTTS rate
1.18
Goals for per game
1.22
67.6%
Scoring rate
79.6%
55.9%
BTTS rate
67.3%
1.76
Goals for per game
0.96
82.4%
Scoring rate
75.0%
64.7%
BTTS rate
70.8%
34
History Matches
49
1.18
Goals Mean
1.22
1.15
Goals Std
0.95
67.6%
Scored 1+ rate
79.6%
29.4%
Scored 2+ rate
30.6%
14.7%
Scored 3+ rate
8.2%
1.76
Venue Goals Mean
0.96
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals against per gameConceding rate
0.91
Goals against per game
1.63
67.6%
Conceding rate
85.7%
1.12
Goals against per game
1.79
70.6%
Conceding rate
95.8%
34
History Matches
49
0.91
Conceded Mean
1.63
0.85
Conceded Std
1.10
17.6%
Conceded 2+ rate
53.1%
2.9%
Conceded 3+ rate
14.3%
1.12
Venue Conceded Mean
1.79
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Clean-sheet rateFailed-to-score rate
32.4%
Clean-sheet rate
14.3%
32.4%
Failed-to-score rate
20.4%
29.4%
Clean-sheet rate
4.2%
17.6%
Failed-to-score rate
25.0%
32.4%
Clean-sheet rate
14.3%
32.4%
Failed-to-score rate
20.4%
29.4%
Clean-sheet rate
4.2%
17.6%
Failed-to-score rate
25.0%
32.4%
Clean-sheet rate
14.3%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
34
History Matches
49
0.95
Result entropy
0.96
1.27
Goal Difference Std
1.55
4.86
Stability score
3.60
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
34
Eligible Matches
49
8
Lead Matches
8
87.5%
Lead Win Rate
62.5%
0.88
Lead Points Retention
0.67
5
Trailing Matches
23
20.0%
Non-loss rate
17.4%
0.0%
Trailing Win Rate
4.3%
Goal timing5 signals
50
34
Halftime Coverage Matches
49
0.53
First Half Goals For Mean
0.51
0.32
First Half Goals Against Mean
1.00
0.65
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.71
0.59
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.63
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
189.0
Rest days
175.0
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
1
Short Rest History Matches
0
1.00
Short Rest Points Per Match
—
28
Normal Rest History Matches
39
1.54
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.10
4
Long Rest History Matches
9
0.50
Long Rest Points Per Match
0.89
Competition & season17 signals
170
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin rateDraw rateLoss rateOver 1.5 rateOver 2.5 rateOver 3.5 rateGoal difference · Standard deviationCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference Mean
0
Matches
0
0
Current Competition Matches
0
1
Competition Season Count
2
1
Eligible Competition Season Count
2
—
Portability PPG Std
0.11
—
Portability PPG Range
0.21
—
Portability Score
82.35
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
34
Clean History Matches
49
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scoreCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference MeanPortability PPG StdPortability PPG RangePortability ScoreShort Rest Points Per Match
ELO85.50
PPG0.38
GF-0.05
GA-0.72
PPG1.22
PPG-0.80
PPG0.00
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches-15
Clean-sheet rate18.1%
Failed-to-score rate11.9%
History Matches-7
Clean-sheet rate25.2%
Failed-to-score rate-0.07
History Matches-15
Goals Mean-0.05
Goals Std0.20
Scored 1+ rate-0.12
Scored 2+ rate-0.01
Scored 3+ rate6.5%
Venue Goals Mean0.81
Recent 10 Goals Mean-0.40
Recent 10 Goals Std0.10
History Matches-15
Conceded Mean-0.72
Conceded Std-0.25
Clean-sheet rate18.1%
Conceded 2+ rate-0.35
Conceded 3+ rate-0.11
Venue Conceded Mean-0.67
Recent 10 Conceded Mean-0.50
Recent 10 Conceded Std-0.09
History Matches-15
Result entropy-0.01
Goal Difference Std-0.28
Stability score1.26
Recent 10 Result Entropy-0.02
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std-0.20
Eligible Matches-15
Lead Matches0
Lead Win Rate25.0%
Lead Points Retention0.21
Trailing Matches-18
Non-loss rate2.6%
Trailing Win Rate-0.04
Halftime Coverage Matches-15
First Half Goals For Mean0.02
First Half Goals Against Mean-0.68
Second Half Goals For Mean-0.07
Second Half Goals Against Mean-0.04
Current Competition Matches0
Competition Season Count-1
Eligible Competition Season Count-1
Rest days14.04
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches1
Normal Rest History Matches-11
Normal Rest Points Per Match0.43
Long Rest History Matches-5
Long Rest Points Per Match-0.39
Current Team ELO85.50
Current Opponent ELO-85.50
Current ELO Difference171.0
Expected score0.24
History Matches-15
Residual Mean0.10
Overperformance6.76
Recent 10 Residual Mean-0.08

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Real Giulianova

L
Montecchio Gallo3–0Real Giulianova1 Nov · away
Pick: Real Giulianova 35% · missed
W
Real Giulianova1–0Pietralunga25 Oct · home
Pick: Real Giulianova 65% · hit
W
Foligno Calcio0–1Real Giulianova18 Oct · away
Pick: Foligno Calcio 40% · missed
W
Santegidiese1–3Real Giulianova4 Oct · away
Pick: Real Giulianova 35% · hit
Earlier results appear as match history is added

Recanatese

L
Recanatese0–1Sporting Trestina1 Nov · home
Pick: Sporting Trestina 40% · hit
W
Angelana0–1Recanatese25 Oct · away
Pick: Recanatese 38% · hit
L
Ternana5–1Recanatese21 Oct · away
Pick: Ternana 59% · hit
L
Recanatese2–3L'Aquila18 Oct · home
Pick: L'Aquila 40% · hit
L
Recanatese2–3Maceratese4 Oct · home
Pick: Recanatese 54% · missed

About this match

Real Giulianova and Recanatese meet in Serie D - Girone F on Sunday 8 November 2026, kickoff 13:30 UTC. ScoreProb published its prediction on 2 Nov, 08:51 UTC: Real Giulianova win 40.3%, draw 25.9%, Recanatese win 33.9%. The pick is Real Giulianova win. Over 2.5 goals: 51.4%. Both teams to score: 54.2%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.