ScoreProb
Serie D - Girone F Italy Group F - 11 2026

Termoli Calcio vs Ancona

Termoli Calcio Home · Elo 1,495
Sun 8 Nov
UTC
Not started
Ancona Away · Elo 1,605
Venue to be confirmed Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 2 Nov, 08:51 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Ancona win
Termoli Calcio win
26.0%
Draw
34.9%
Ancona winPick
39.0%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Lineups · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Live stats · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes45.2%
No54.8%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.536.1%
Under 2.563.9%

How much we know

Termoli Calcio history49 matches
Ancona history56 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 4 h ahead
    2 Nov · 08:51 UTC
  2. Re-published 2 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 2 Nov · 20:35 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    8 Nov · 13:30 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 33–39% band (39.0%). Picks in that band won 40.1% of the time, and the model said 37.7% on average, over 2,635 matches.

Why Ancona are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • Ancona are rated 110 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,605 against 1,495. On rating alone Ancona would be expected to take 65% of the points on offer.

  • Ancona score far more

    0.90 goals a game over 49 matches for Termoli Calcio, against 1.41 over 56 for Ancona.

  • Defences are close

    Termoli Calcio concede 0.98 a game, Ancona 0.93.

  • Ancona games more often go over 2.5 goals

    22% of Termoli Calcio matches, against 38% for Ancona. The model puts this match at 36% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 11 May 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Termoli Calcio
Ancona
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1494.9
ELO
1605.1
49
ELO · Matches
56
1494.9
Current Team ELO
1605.1
1605.1
Current Opponent ELO
1494.9
-110.1
Current ELO Difference
110.1
0.35
Expected score
0.65
49
History Matches
56
-0.01
Residual Mean
0.09
49.24
Overperformance
57.00
0.03
Recent 10 Residual Mean
0.00
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
1.00
PPG
1.80
0.60
Goals for per game
1.40
0.80
Goals against per game
0.60
20.0%
Win rate
40.0%
10
Matches
10
1.30
PPG
1.60
0.60
Goals for per game
1.10
0.60
Goals against per game
0.80
30.0%
Win rate
40.0%
0.60
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.10
0.49
Recent 10 Goals Std
0.94
0.60
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
0.80
0.66
Recent 10 Conceded Std
0.60
0.99
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.96
0.77
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.27
Overall performance9 signals
90
49
Matches
56
1.22
PPG
1.79
24.5%
Win rate
50.0%
49.0%
Draw rate
28.6%
26.5%
Loss rate
21.4%
57.1%
Over 1.5 rate
73.2%
22.4%
Over 2.5 rate
37.5%
14.3%
Over 3.5 rate
19.6%
0.92
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.72
Venue performance10 signals
100
23
Matches
27
1.13
PPG
1.89
17.4%
Win rate
51.9%
60.9%
Draw rate
33.3%
21.7%
Loss rate
14.8%
60.9%
Over 1.5 rate
70.4%
26.1%
Over 2.5 rate
44.4%
17.4%
Over 3.5 rate
18.5%
0.72
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.66
23
History Matches
27
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals for per gameScoring rateBTTS rate
0.90
Goals for per game
1.41
69.4%
Scoring rate
73.2%
53.1%
BTTS rate
42.9%
0.96
Goals for per game
1.44
69.6%
Scoring rate
74.1%
60.9%
BTTS rate
48.1%
49
History Matches
56
0.90
Goals Mean
1.41
0.74
Goals Std
1.24
69.4%
Scored 1+ rate
73.2%
18.4%
Scored 2+ rate
41.1%
2.0%
Scored 3+ rate
17.9%
0.96
Venue Goals Mean
1.44
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals against per gameConceding rate
0.98
Goals against per game
0.93
73.5%
Conceding rate
60.7%
0.96
Goals against per game
0.96
73.9%
Conceding rate
59.3%
49
History Matches
56
0.98
Conceded Mean
0.93
0.82
Conceded Std
1.00
18.4%
Conceded 2+ rate
21.4%
4.1%
Conceded 3+ rate
7.1%
0.96
Venue Conceded Mean
0.96
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Clean-sheet rateFailed-to-score rate
26.5%
Clean-sheet rate
39.3%
30.6%
Failed-to-score rate
26.8%
26.1%
Clean-sheet rate
40.7%
30.4%
Failed-to-score rate
25.9%
26.5%
Clean-sheet rate
39.3%
30.6%
Failed-to-score rate
26.8%
26.1%
Clean-sheet rate
40.7%
30.4%
Failed-to-score rate
25.9%
26.5%
Clean-sheet rate
39.3%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
49
History Matches
56
0.95
Result entropy
0.94
0.92
Goal Difference Std
1.72
4.77
Stability score
5.83
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
49
Eligible Matches
56
16
Lead Matches
20
43.8%
Lead Win Rate
85.0%
0.63
Lead Points Retention
0.90
11
Trailing Matches
10
18.2%
Non-loss rate
30.0%
0.0%
Trailing Win Rate
20.0%
Goal timing5 signals
50
49
Halftime Coverage Matches
56
0.51
First Half Goals For Mean
0.68
0.37
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.43
0.39
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.73
0.61
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.50
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
189.0
Rest days
182.0
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
3
Short Rest History Matches
5
2.00
Short Rest Points Per Match
1.80
36
Normal Rest History Matches
41
1.08
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.83
9
Long Rest History Matches
9
1.56
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.44
Competition & season17 signals
170
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin rateDraw rateLoss rateOver 1.5 rateOver 2.5 rateOver 3.5 rateGoal difference · Standard deviationCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference Mean
0
Matches
0
0
Current Competition Matches
0
3
Competition Season Count
3
2
Eligible Competition Season Count
3
0.18
Portability PPG Std
0.51
0.35
Portability PPG Range
1.20
73.91
Portability Score
49.42
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
49
Clean History Matches
56
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scoreCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference Mean
ELO-110.1
PPG-0.56
GF-0.51
GA0.05
PPG-0.76
PPG-0.80
PPG-0.30
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches-7
Clean-sheet rate-0.13
Failed-to-score rate3.8%
History Matches-4
Clean-sheet rate-0.15
Failed-to-score rate4.5%
History Matches-7
Goals Mean-0.51
Goals Std-0.50
Scored 1+ rate-0.04
Scored 2+ rate-0.23
Scored 3+ rate-0.16
Venue Goals Mean-0.49
Recent 10 Goals Mean-0.50
Recent 10 Goals Std-0.45
History Matches-7
Conceded Mean0.05
Conceded Std-0.18
Clean-sheet rate-0.13
Conceded 2+ rate-0.03
Conceded 3+ rate-0.03
Venue Conceded Mean-0.01
Recent 10 Conceded Mean-0.20
Recent 10 Conceded Std0.06
History Matches-7
Result entropy0.01
Goal Difference Std-0.80
Stability score-1.05
Recent 10 Result Entropy0.03
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std-0.49
Eligible Matches-7
Lead Matches-4
Lead Win Rate-0.41
Lead Points Retention-0.28
Trailing Matches1
Non-loss rate-0.12
Trailing Win Rate-0.20
Halftime Coverage Matches-7
First Half Goals For Mean-0.17
First Half Goals Against Mean-0.06
Second Half Goals For Mean-0.34
Second Half Goals Against Mean0.11
Current Competition Matches0
Competition Season Count0
Eligible Competition Season Count-1
Portability PPG Std-0.34
Portability PPG Range-0.85
Portability Score24.50
Rest days7.04
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches-2
Short Rest Points Per Match0.20
Normal Rest History Matches-5
Normal Rest Points Per Match-0.75
Long Rest History Matches0
Long Rest Points Per Match0.11
Current Team ELO-110.1
Current Opponent ELO110.1
Current ELO Difference-220.2
Expected score-0.31
History Matches-7
Residual Mean-0.11
Overperformance-7.75
Recent 10 Residual Mean0.04

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Termoli Calcio

D
Santegidiese0–0Termoli Calcio1 Nov · away
Pick: Draw 41% · hit
D
Termoli Calcio0–0Atletico Ascoli25 Oct · home
Pick: Atletico Ascoli 40% · missed
L
Teramo1–0Termoli Calcio18 Oct · away
Pick: Teramo 54% · hit
L
L'Aquila5–2Termoli Calcio7 Oct · away
Pick: L'Aquila 38% · hit
W
Termoli Calcio2–0Lanciano FC4 Oct · home
Pick: Termoli Calcio 66% · hit

Ancona

W
Ancona1–0Atletico Ascoli1 Nov · home
Pick: Ancona 47% · hit
W
Vigor Senigallia0–5Ancona25 Oct · away
Pick: Ancona 47% · hit
L
Ancona2–3Fossombrone18 Oct · home
Pick: Ancona 54% · missed
W
Ancona2–0Sporting Trestina4 Oct · home
Pick: Ancona 55% · hit
Earlier results appear as match history is added

About this match

Termoli Calcio and Ancona meet in Serie D - Girone F on Sunday 8 November 2026, kickoff 13:30 UTC. ScoreProb published its prediction on 2 Nov, 08:51 UTC: Termoli Calcio win 26.0%, draw 34.9%, Ancona win 39.0%. The pick is Ancona win. Over 2.5 goals: 36.1%. Both teams to score: 45.2%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.