ScoreProb
Lao League Laos Round 5 2026

Lao Army vs Savannakhet

Lao Army Home · Elo 1,505
Sat 7 Nov
UTC
Not started
Savannakhet Away · Elo 1,367
Venue to be confirmed Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Lao Army win
Lao Army winPick
83.6%
Draw
8.2%
Savannakhet win
8.2%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Lineups · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Live stats · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes38.0%
No62.0%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.575.6%
Under 2.524.4%

How much we know

Lao Army history22 matches
Savannakhet history17 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 5 d 23 h ahead
    1 Nov · 08:41 UTC
  2. Re-published 11 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 4 Nov · 07:21 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    7 Nov · 08:30 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 80%+ band (83.6%). Picks in that band won 83.3% of the time, and the model said 84.5% on average, over 162 matches. This band has few matches, so treat the figures with care.

Why Lao Army are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • Lao Army are rated 139 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,505 against 1,367. On rating alone Lao Army would be expected to take 69% of the points on offer.

  • Lao Army score far more

    1.50 goals a game over 22 matches for Lao Army, against 0.53 over 17 for Savannakhet.

  • Lao Army concede fewer

    Lao Army concede 1.95 a game, Savannakhet 4.76.

  • Savannakhet games more often go over 2.5 goals

    64% of Lao Army matches, against 88% for Savannakhet. The model puts this match at 76% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 14 Mar 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Lao Army
Savannakhet@include('fixtures.partials.crest', ['team' => $away, 'size' => 'sm', 'lazy' => true])
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1505.4
ELO
1366.6
22
ELO · Matches
17
1505.4
Current Team ELO
1366.6
1366.6
Current Opponent ELO
1505.4
138.7
Current ELO Difference
-138.7
0.69
Expected score
0.31
22
History Matches
17
0.01
Residual Mean
-0.38
50.65
Overperformance
32.36
-0.03
Recent 10 Residual Mean
-0.32
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
1.20
PPG
0.00
1.20
Goals for per game
0.00
2.00
Goals against per game
4.80
40.0%
Win rate
0.0%
10
Matches
10
1.40
PPG
0.10
1.20
Goals for per game
0.40
1.20
Goals against per game
5.30
40.0%
Win rate
0.0%
1.20
Recent 10 Goals Mean
0.40
1.33
Recent 10 Goals Std
0.80
1.20
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
5.30
1.08
Recent 10 Conceded Std
3.03
0.96
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.30
1.84
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
3.05
Overall performance9 signals
90
22
Matches
17
1.50
PPG
0.06
45.5%
Win rate
0.0%
13.6%
Draw rate
5.9%
40.9%
Loss rate
94.1%
81.8%
Over 1.5 rate
88.2%
63.6%
Over 2.5 rate
88.2%
45.5%
Over 3.5 rate
76.5%
2.81
Goal difference · Standard deviation
3.04
Venue performance10 signals
100
11
Matches
8
1.82
PPG
0.00
54.5%
Win rate
0.0%
18.2%
Draw rate
0.0%
27.3%
Loss rate
100.0%
81.8%
Over 1.5 rate
75.0%
45.5%
Over 2.5 rate
75.0%
27.3%
Over 3.5 rate
62.5%
2.19
Goal difference · Standard deviation
3.59
11
History Matches
8
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals for per gameScoring rateBTTS rate
1.50
Goals for per game
0.53
72.7%
Scoring rate
35.3%
50.0%
BTTS rate
35.3%
1.45
Goals for per game
0.38
81.8%
Scoring rate
25.0%
54.5%
BTTS rate
25.0%
22
History Matches
17
1.50
Goals Mean
0.53
1.20
Goals Std
0.78
72.7%
Scored 1+ rate
35.3%
50.0%
Scored 2+ rate
17.6%
22.7%
Scored 3+ rate
0.0%
1.45
Venue Goals Mean
0.38
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals against per gameConceding rate
1.95
Goals against per game
4.76
72.7%
Conceding rate
100.0%
1.36
Goals against per game
5.25
72.7%
Conceding rate
100.0%
22
History Matches
17
1.95
Conceded Mean
4.76
2.12
Conceded Std
2.94
36.4%
Conceded 2+ rate
88.2%
31.8%
Conceded 3+ rate
76.5%
1.36
Venue Conceded Mean
5.25
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Clean-sheet rateFailed-to-score rate
27.3%
Clean-sheet rate
0.0%
27.3%
Failed-to-score rate
64.7%
27.3%
Clean-sheet rate
0.0%
18.2%
Failed-to-score rate
75.0%
27.3%
Clean-sheet rate
0.0%
27.3%
Failed-to-score rate
64.7%
27.3%
Clean-sheet rate
0.0%
18.2%
Failed-to-score rate
75.0%
27.3%
Clean-sheet rate
0.0%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
22
History Matches
17
0.91
Result entropy
0.20
2.81
Goal Difference Std
3.04
9.36
Stability score
79.64
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
21
Eligible Matches
17
6
Lead Matches
1
100.0%
Lead Win Rate
0.0%
1.00
Lead Points Retention
0.33
9
Trailing Matches
14
22.2%
Non-loss rate
0.0%
0.0%
Trailing Win Rate
0.0%
Goal timing5 signals
50
21
Halftime Coverage Matches
17
0.62
First Half Goals For Mean
0.29
0.81
First Half Goals Against Mean
2.18
0.81
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.24
1.24
Second Half Goals Against Mean
2.59
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
238.0
Rest days
238.0
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
1
Short Rest History Matches
0
0.00
Short Rest Points Per Match
—
12
Normal Rest History Matches
11
2.00
Normal Rest Points Per Match
0.09
8
Long Rest History Matches
5
1.13
Long Rest Points Per Match
0.00
Competition & season17 signals
170
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin rateDraw rateLoss rateOver 1.5 rateOver 2.5 rateOver 3.5 rateGoal difference · Standard deviationCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference Mean
0
Matches
0
0
Current Competition Matches
0
2
Competition Season Count
1
2
Eligible Competition Season Count
1
0.00
Portability PPG Std
—
0.00
Portability PPG Range
—
100.0
Portability Score
—
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
22
Clean History Matches
17
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scoreCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference MeanPortability PPG StdPortability PPG RangePortability ScoreShort Rest Points Per Match
ELO138.7
PPG1.44
GF0.97
GA-2.81
PPG1.82
PPG1.20
PPG1.30
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches5
Clean-sheet rate27.3%
Failed-to-score rate-0.37
History Matches3
Clean-sheet rate27.3%
Failed-to-score rate-0.57
History Matches5
Goals Mean0.97
Goals Std0.42
Scored 1+ rate37.4%
Scored 2+ rate32.4%
Scored 3+ rate22.7%
Venue Goals Mean1.08
Recent 10 Goals Mean0.80
Recent 10 Goals Std0.53
History Matches5
Conceded Mean-2.81
Conceded Std-0.82
Clean-sheet rate27.3%
Conceded 2+ rate-0.52
Conceded 3+ rate-0.45
Venue Conceded Mean-3.89
Recent 10 Conceded Mean-4.10
Recent 10 Conceded Std-1.96
History Matches5
Result entropy0.70
Goal Difference Std-0.23
Stability score-70.27
Recent 10 Result Entropy0.66
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std-1.20
Eligible Matches4
Lead Matches5
Lead Win Rate100.0%
Lead Points Retention0.67
Trailing Matches-5
Non-loss rate22.2%
Trailing Win Rate0.0%
Halftime Coverage Matches4
First Half Goals For Mean0.32
First Half Goals Against Mean-1.37
Second Half Goals For Mean0.57
Second Half Goals Against Mean-1.35
Current Competition Matches0
Competition Season Count1
Eligible Competition Season Count1
Rest days0.00
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches1
Normal Rest History Matches1
Normal Rest Points Per Match1.91
Long Rest History Matches3
Long Rest Points Per Match1.13
Current Team ELO138.7
Current Opponent ELO-138.7
Current ELO Difference277.5
Expected score0.38
History Matches5
Residual Mean0.40
Overperformance18.29
Recent 10 Residual Mean0.29

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Lao Army

L
Viengchanh2–0Lao Army31 Oct · away
Pick: Viengchanh 61% · hit
L
Lao Army0–1Salavan United24 Oct · home
Pick: Lao Army 41% · missed
L
Ezra3–0Lao Army17 Oct · away
Pick: Ezra 74% · hit
Earlier results appear as match history is added

Savannakhet

D
Master 72–2Savannakhet1 Nov · away
Pick: Master 7 78% · missed
W
Savannakhet2–0Lao Toyota25 Oct · home
Pick: Savannakhet 53% · hit
W
Namtha United3–4Savannakhet17 Oct · away
Pick: Namtha United 81% · missed
Earlier results appear as match history is added

About this match

Lao Army and Savannakhet meet in Lao League on Saturday 7 November 2026, kickoff 08:30 UTC. ScoreProb published its prediction on 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC: Lao Army win 83.6%, draw 8.2%, Savannakhet win 8.2%. The pick is Lao Army win. Over 2.5 goals: 75.6%. Both teams to score: 38.0%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.