ScoreProb
Lao League Laos Round 5 2026

Luangprabang FC vs Namtha United

Luangprabang FC Home · Elo 1,484
Sat 7 Nov
UTC
Not started
Namtha United Away · Elo 1,459
Venue to be confirmed Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Luangprabang FC win
Luangprabang FC winPick
46.8%
Draw
20.8%
Namtha United win
32.4%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Lineups · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Live stats · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes60.6%
No39.4%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.566.6%
Under 2.533.4%

How much we know

Luangprabang FC history22 matches
Namtha United history22 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 5 d 23 h ahead
    1 Nov · 08:41 UTC
  2. Re-published 11 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 4 Nov · 07:21 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    7 Nov · 08:30 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 40–49% band (46.8%). Picks in that band won 45.4% of the time, and the model said 44.8% on average, over 6,162 matches.

Why Luangprabang FC are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • Luangprabang FC are rated 26 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,484 against 1,459. On rating alone Luangprabang FC would be expected to take 54% of the points on offer.

  • Luangprabang FC score more

    1.77 goals a game over 22 matches for Luangprabang FC, against 1.55 over 22 for Namtha United.

  • Luangprabang FC concede fewer

    Luangprabang FC concede 1.50 a game, Namtha United 1.86.

  • Both teams play a similar number of high-scoring games

    64% of Luangprabang FC matches, against 64% for Namtha United. The model puts this match at 67% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 14 Mar 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Luangprabang FC
Namtha United@include('fixtures.partials.crest', ['team' => $away, 'size' => 'sm', 'lazy' => true])
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1484.4
ELO
1458.7
22
ELO · Matches
22
1484.4
Current Team ELO
1458.7
1458.7
Current Opponent ELO
1484.4
25.62
Current ELO Difference
-25.62
0.54
Expected score
0.46
22
History Matches
22
-0.03
Residual Mean
-0.10
48.59
Overperformance
44.64
0.06
Recent 10 Residual Mean
-0.23
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
1.20
PPG
0.60
2.00
Goals for per game
1.60
1.40
Goals against per game
2.80
40.0%
Win rate
20.0%
10
Matches
10
1.50
PPG
0.70
1.60
Goals for per game
1.30
1.10
Goals against per game
2.40
40.0%
Win rate
20.0%
1.60
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.30
1.28
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.55
1.10
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
2.40
1.22
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.36
0.99
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.73
2.06
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
2.51
Overall performance9 signals
90
22
Matches
22
1.32
PPG
1.05
36.4%
Win rate
27.3%
22.7%
Draw rate
22.7%
40.9%
Loss rate
50.0%
81.8%
Over 1.5 rate
90.9%
63.6%
Over 2.5 rate
63.6%
45.5%
Over 3.5 rate
45.5%
2.72
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.75
Venue performance10 signals
100
12
Matches
12
1.17
PPG
0.92
33.3%
Win rate
25.0%
16.7%
Draw rate
16.7%
50.0%
Loss rate
58.3%
83.3%
Over 1.5 rate
91.7%
66.7%
Over 2.5 rate
58.3%
33.3%
Over 3.5 rate
50.0%
2.10
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.85
12
History Matches
12
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals for per gameScoring rateBTTS rate
1.77
Goals for per game
1.55
77.3%
Scoring rate
63.6%
50.0%
BTTS rate
50.0%
1.25
Goals for per game
1.08
83.3%
Scoring rate
58.3%
50.0%
BTTS rate
41.7%
22
History Matches
22
1.77
Goals Mean
1.55
1.81
Goals Std
2.06
77.3%
Scored 1+ rate
63.6%
36.4%
Scored 2+ rate
36.4%
22.7%
Scored 3+ rate
18.2%
1.25
Venue Goals Mean
1.08
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals against per gameConceding rate
1.50
Goals against per game
1.86
72.7%
Conceding rate
81.8%
1.67
Goals against per game
2.00
66.7%
Conceding rate
83.3%
22
History Matches
22
1.50
Conceded Mean
1.86
1.37
Conceded Std
1.22
40.9%
Conceded 2+ rate
63.6%
22.7%
Conceded 3+ rate
31.8%
1.67
Venue Conceded Mean
2.00
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Clean-sheet rateFailed-to-score rate
27.3%
Clean-sheet rate
18.2%
22.7%
Failed-to-score rate
36.4%
33.3%
Clean-sheet rate
16.7%
16.7%
Failed-to-score rate
41.7%
27.3%
Clean-sheet rate
18.2%
22.7%
Failed-to-score rate
36.4%
33.3%
Clean-sheet rate
16.7%
16.7%
Failed-to-score rate
41.7%
27.3%
Clean-sheet rate
18.2%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
22
History Matches
22
0.97
Result entropy
0.94
2.72
Goal Difference Std
2.75
2.58
Stability score
5.55
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
21
Eligible Matches
22
5
Lead Matches
5
80.0%
Lead Win Rate
80.0%
0.87
Lead Points Retention
0.87
9
Trailing Matches
6
22.2%
Non-loss rate
16.7%
0.0%
Trailing Win Rate
16.7%
Goal timing5 signals
50
21
Halftime Coverage Matches
22
0.48
First Half Goals For Mean
0.50
0.76
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.50
1.38
Second Half Goals For Mean
1.05
0.67
Second Half Goals Against Mean
1.36
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
238.0
Rest days
238.0
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
4
Short Rest History Matches
0
0.75
Short Rest Points Per Match
—
9
Normal Rest History Matches
15
1.56
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.00
8
Long Rest History Matches
6
1.13
Long Rest Points Per Match
0.83
Competition & season17 signals
170
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin rateDraw rateLoss rateOver 1.5 rateOver 2.5 rateOver 3.5 rateGoal difference · Standard deviationCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference Mean
0
Matches
0
0
Current Competition Matches
0
2
Competition Season Count
2
2
Eligible Competition Season Count
2
0.57
Portability PPG Std
0.03
1.14
Portability PPG Range
0.06
46.75
Portability Score
94.74
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
22
Clean History Matches
22
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scoreCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference MeanShort Rest Points Per Match
ELO25.62
PPG0.27
GF0.23
GA-0.36
PPG0.25
PPG0.60
PPG0.80
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches0
Clean-sheet rate9.1%
Failed-to-score rate-0.14
History Matches0
Clean-sheet rate16.7%
Failed-to-score rate-0.25
History Matches0
Goals Mean0.23
Goals Std-0.25
Scored 1+ rate13.6%
Scored 2+ rate0.0%
Scored 3+ rate4.5%
Venue Goals Mean0.17
Recent 10 Goals Mean0.30
Recent 10 Goals Std-0.27
History Matches0
Conceded Mean-0.36
Conceded Std0.16
Clean-sheet rate9.1%
Conceded 2+ rate-0.23
Conceded 3+ rate-0.09
Venue Conceded Mean-0.33
Recent 10 Conceded Mean-1.30
Recent 10 Conceded Std-0.14
History Matches0
Result entropy0.03
Goal Difference Std-0.04
Stability score-2.97
Recent 10 Result Entropy0.26
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std-0.45
Eligible Matches-1
Lead Matches0
Lead Win Rate0.0%
Lead Points Retention0.00
Trailing Matches3
Non-loss rate5.6%
Trailing Win Rate-0.17
Halftime Coverage Matches-1
First Half Goals For Mean-0.02
First Half Goals Against Mean0.26
Second Half Goals For Mean0.34
Second Half Goals Against Mean-0.70
Current Competition Matches0
Competition Season Count0
Eligible Competition Season Count0
Portability PPG Std0.54
Portability PPG Range1.08
Portability Score-47.98
Rest days0.00
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches4
Normal Rest History Matches-6
Normal Rest Points Per Match0.56
Long Rest History Matches2
Long Rest Points Per Match0.29
Current Team ELO25.62
Current Opponent ELO-25.62
Current ELO Difference51.25
Expected score0.07
History Matches0
Residual Mean0.08
Overperformance3.95
Recent 10 Residual Mean0.29

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Luangprabang FC

W
Luangprabang FC3–1Lao Toyota1 Nov · home
Pick: Luangprabang FC 61% · hit
W
Champasak United1–2Luangprabang FC25 Oct · away
Pick: Luangprabang FC 42% · hit
Earlier results appear as match history is added

Namtha United

W
Namtha United2–0Oudomxay Entremets31 Oct · home
Pick: Namtha United 58% · hit
L
Viengchanh4–1Namtha United25 Oct · away
Pick: Viengchanh 46% · hit
L
Namtha United3–4Savannakhet17 Oct · home
Pick: Namtha United 81% · missed
Earlier results appear as match history is added

About this match

Luangprabang FC and Namtha United meet in Lao League on Saturday 7 November 2026, kickoff 08:30 UTC. ScoreProb published its prediction on 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC: Luangprabang FC win 46.8%, draw 20.8%, Namtha United win 32.4%. The pick is Luangprabang FC win. Over 2.5 goals: 66.6%. Both teams to score: 60.6%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.