ScoreProb
Football League - Lowland League Scotland Regular Season 2026

Largs Thistle vs Newton Stewart

Largs Thistle Home · Elo 1,527
Sat 7 Nov
UTC
Not started
Newton Stewart Away · Elo 1,493
Venue to be confirmed Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Largs Thistle win
Largs Thistle winPick
82.5%
Draw
11.8%
Newton Stewart win
5.7%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Lineups · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Live stats · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes44.4%
No55.6%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.569.1%
Under 2.530.9%

How much we know

Largs Thistle history6 matches
Newton Stewart history3 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 6 h ahead
    1 Nov · 08:41 UTC
  2. Re-published 11 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 4 Nov · 07:21 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    7 Nov · 15:00 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 80%+ band (82.5%). Picks in that band won 83.3% of the time, and the model said 84.5% on average, over 162 matches. This band has few matches, so treat the figures with care.

Why Largs Thistle are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • Largs Thistle are rated 35 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,527 against 1,493. On rating alone Largs Thistle would be expected to take 55% of the points on offer.

  • Largs Thistle score far more

    1.50 goals a game over 6 matches for Largs Thistle, against 0.67 over 3 for Newton Stewart.

  • Largs Thistle concede fewer

    Largs Thistle concede 0.50 a game, Newton Stewart 3.67.

  • Newton Stewart games more often go over 2.5 goals

    17% of Largs Thistle matches, against 67% for Newton Stewart. The model puts this match at 69% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 22 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Largs Thistle
Newton Stewart
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1527.4
ELO
1492.7
6
ELO · Matches
3
1527.4
Current Team ELO
1492.7
1492.7
Current Opponent ELO
1527.4
34.73
Current ELO Difference
-34.73
0.55
Expected score
0.45
6
History Matches
3
0.23
Residual Mean
-0.09
55.26
Overperformance
48.88
0.23
Recent 10 Residual Mean
-0.09
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
3
2.00
PPG
0.67
1.40
Goals for per game
0.67
0.60
Goals against per game
3.67
60.0%
Win rate
0.0%
6
Matches
3
2.17
PPG
0.67
1.50
Goals for per game
0.67
0.50
Goals against per game
3.67
66.7%
Win rate
0.0%
1.50
Recent 10 Goals Mean
0.67
0.96
Recent 10 Goals Std
0.94
0.50
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
3.67
0.76
Recent 10 Conceded Std
3.86
0.79
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.58
1.63
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
4.24
Overall performance9 signals
90
6
Matches
3
2.17
PPG
0.67
66.7%
Win rate
0.0%
16.7%
Draw rate
66.7%
16.7%
Loss rate
33.3%
83.3%
Over 1.5 rate
66.7%
16.7%
Over 2.5 rate
66.7%
0.0%
Over 3.5 rate
66.7%
1.63
Goal difference · Standard deviation
4.24
Venue performance10 signals
100
3
Matches
1
3.00
PPG
1.00
100.0%
Win rate
0.0%
0.0%
Draw rate
100.0%
0.0%
Loss rate
0.0%
66.7%
Over 1.5 rate
0.0%
33.3%
Over 2.5 rate
0.0%
0.0%
Over 3.5 rate
0.0%
0.82
Goal difference · Standard deviation
—
3
History Matches
1
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
1.50
Goals for per game
0.67
83.3%
Scoring rate
33.3%
16.7%
BTTS rate
33.3%
2.00
Goals for per game
0.00
100.0%
Scoring rate
0.0%
0.0%
BTTS rate
0.0%
1.50
Goals for per game
0.67
83.3%
Scoring rate
33.3%
16.7%
BTTS rate
33.3%
6
History Matches
3
1.50
Goals Mean
0.67
0.96
Goals Std
0.94
83.3%
Scored 1+ rate
33.3%
50.0%
Scored 2+ rate
33.3%
16.7%
Scored 3+ rate
0.0%
2.00
Venue Goals Mean
0.00
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
0.50
Goals against per game
3.67
33.3%
Conceding rate
66.7%
0.00
Goals against per game
0.00
0.0%
Conceding rate
0.0%
0.50
Goals against per game
3.67
33.3%
Conceding rate
66.7%
6
History Matches
3
0.50
Conceded Mean
3.67
0.76
Conceded Std
3.86
16.7%
Conceded 2+ rate
66.7%
0.0%
Conceded 3+ rate
33.3%
0.00
Venue Conceded Mean
0.00
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
66.7%
Clean-sheet rate
33.3%
16.7%
Failed-to-score rate
66.7%
100.0%
Clean-sheet rate
100.0%
0.0%
Failed-to-score rate
100.0%
66.7%
Clean-sheet rate
33.3%
16.7%
Failed-to-score rate
66.7%
66.7%
Clean-sheet rate
33.3%
16.7%
Failed-to-score rate
66.7%
100.0%
Clean-sheet rate
100.0%
0.0%
Failed-to-score rate
100.0%
66.7%
Clean-sheet rate
33.3%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
6
History Matches
3
0.79
Result entropy
0.58
1.63
Goal Difference Std
4.24
21.03
Stability score
42.06
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
6
Eligible Matches
3
3
Lead Matches
0
100.0%
Lead Win Rate
—
1.00
Lead Points Retention
—
1
Trailing Matches
2
100.0%
Non-loss rate
50.0%
0.0%
Trailing Win Rate
0.0%
Goal timing5 signals
50
6
Halftime Coverage Matches
3
0.67
First Half Goals For Mean
0.33
0.17
First Half Goals Against Mean
3.00
0.83
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.33
0.33
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.67
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Short Rest Points Per MatchLong Rest Points Per Match
77.04
Rest days
91.04
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
0
Short Rest History Matches
0
5
Normal Rest History Matches
2
2.00
Normal Rest Points Per Match
0.50
0
Long Rest History Matches
0
Competition & season17 signals
170
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Portability PPG StdPortability PPG RangePortability Score
6
Matches
3
2.17
PPG
0.67
66.7%
Win rate
0.0%
16.7%
Draw rate
66.7%
16.7%
Loss rate
33.3%
83.3%
Over 1.5 rate
66.7%
16.7%
Over 2.5 rate
66.7%
0.0%
Over 3.5 rate
66.7%
1.63
Goal difference · Standard deviation
4.24
6
Current Competition Matches
3
2.17
Current Competition PPG
0.67
1.00
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
-3.00
1
Competition Season Count
1
1
Eligible Competition Season Count
1
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
6
Clean History Matches
3
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scoreLead Win RateLead Points RetentionPortability PPG StdPortability PPG RangePortability ScoreShort Rest Points Per MatchLong Rest Points Per Match
ELO34.73
PPG1.50
GF0.83
GA-3.17
PPG1.50
PPG2.00
PPG1.33
PPG1.50
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches3
Clean-sheet rate33.3%
Failed-to-score rate-0.50
History Matches2
Clean-sheet rate0.0%
Failed-to-score rate-1.00
History Matches3
Goals Mean0.83
Goals Std0.01
Scored 1+ rate50.0%
Scored 2+ rate16.7%
Scored 3+ rate16.7%
Venue Goals Mean2.00
Recent 10 Goals Mean0.83
Recent 10 Goals Std0.01
History Matches3
Conceded Mean-3.17
Conceded Std-3.09
Clean-sheet rate33.3%
Conceded 2+ rate-0.50
Conceded 3+ rate-0.33
Venue Conceded Mean0.00
Recent 10 Conceded Mean-3.17
Recent 10 Conceded Std-3.09
History Matches3
Result entropy0.21
Goal Difference Std-2.61
Stability score-21.03
Recent 10 Result Entropy0.21
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std-2.61
Eligible Matches3
Lead Matches3
Trailing Matches-1
Non-loss rate50.0%
Trailing Win Rate0.0%
Halftime Coverage Matches3
First Half Goals For Mean0.33
First Half Goals Against Mean-2.83
Second Half Goals For Mean0.50
Second Half Goals Against Mean-0.33
Current Competition Matches3
Current Competition PPG1.50
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean4.00
Competition Season Count0
Eligible Competition Season Count0
Rest days-14.00
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches0
Normal Rest History Matches3
Normal Rest Points Per Match1.50
Long Rest History Matches0
Current Team ELO34.73
Current Opponent ELO-34.73
Current ELO Difference69.47
Expected score0.10
History Matches3
Residual Mean0.31
Overperformance6.38
Recent 10 Residual Mean0.31

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Largs Thistle

W
Troon FC1–2Largs Thistle31 Oct · away
Pick: Largs Thistle 38% · hit
W
Largs Thistle2–1Cumnock Juniors28 Oct · home
Pick: Largs Thistle 68% · hit
W
Dunipace1–5Largs Thistle24 Oct · away
Pick: Largs Thistle 55% · hit
Earlier results appear as match history is added

Newton Stewart

L
Cumbernauld Colts5–2Newton Stewart17 Oct · away
Pick: Cumbernauld Colts 83% · hit
L
Cumnock Juniors5–0Newton Stewart29 Aug · away
Pick: Cumnock Juniors 74% · hit
Earlier results appear as match history is added

About this match

Largs Thistle and Newton Stewart meet in Football League - Lowland League on Saturday 7 November 2026, kickoff 15:00 UTC. ScoreProb published its prediction on 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC: Largs Thistle win 82.5%, draw 11.8%, Newton Stewart win 5.7%. The pick is Largs Thistle win. Over 2.5 goals: 69.1%. Both teams to score: 44.4%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.