ScoreProb
Ligue A Burundi 2026

Le Messager Ngozi vs Ngozi City

Le Messager Ngozi Home · Elo 1,505
Wed 4 Nov
UTC
Not started
Ngozi City Away · Elo 1,456
Venue to be confirmed Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 29 Oct, 08:38 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Le Messager Ngozi win
Le Messager Ngozi winPick
52.2%
Draw
25.6%
Ngozi City win
22.1%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Lineups · not provided for this competition by our data source
Live score and events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Live stats · not provided for this competition by our data source
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes48.2%
No51.8%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.545.9%
Under 2.554.1%

How much we know

Le Messager Ngozi history46 matches
Ngozi City history45 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 4 h ahead
    29 Oct · 08:38 UTC
  2. Re-published 16 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 2 Nov · 18:58 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    4 Nov · 13:00 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 50–59% band (52.2%). Picks in that band won 55.8% of the time, and the model said 54.4% on average, over 3,719 matches.

Why Le Messager Ngozi are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • Le Messager Ngozi are rated 50 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,505 against 1,456. On rating alone Le Messager Ngozi would be expected to take 57% of the points on offer.

  • Ngozi City score more

    1.00 goals a game over 46 matches for Le Messager Ngozi, against 1.18 over 45 for Ngozi City.

  • Le Messager Ngozi concede fewer

    Le Messager Ngozi concede 1.02 a game, Ngozi City 1.62.

  • Ngozi City games more often go over 2.5 goals

    39% of Le Messager Ngozi matches, against 56% for Ngozi City. The model puts this match at 46% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 23 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Le Messager Ngozi
Ngozi City
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1505.3
ELO
1455.6
46
ELO · Matches
45
1505.3
Current Team ELO
1455.6
1455.6
Current Opponent ELO
1505.3
49.75
Current ELO Difference
-49.75
0.57
Expected score
0.43
46
History Matches
45
0.01
Residual Mean
-0.05
50.73
Overperformance
46.30
0.24
Recent 10 Residual Mean
0.10
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
2.40
PPG
0.60
1.60
Goals for per game
1.40
0.60
Goals against per game
2.80
80.0%
Win rate
20.0%
10
Matches
10
1.90
PPG
1.60
1.70
Goals for per game
2.10
0.80
Goals against per game
1.90
60.0%
Win rate
50.0%
1.70
Recent 10 Goals Mean
2.10
1.35
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.51
0.80
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.90
0.60
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.51
0.82
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.86
1.64
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
2.32
Overall performance9 signals
90
46
Matches
45
1.26
PPG
1.04
32.6%
Win rate
26.7%
28.3%
Draw rate
24.4%
39.1%
Loss rate
48.9%
54.3%
Over 1.5 rate
68.9%
39.1%
Over 2.5 rate
55.6%
17.4%
Over 3.5 rate
28.9%
1.38
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.86
Venue performance10 signals
100
24
Matches
24
1.21
PPG
0.92
25.0%
Win rate
20.8%
45.8%
Draw rate
29.2%
29.2%
Loss rate
50.0%
45.8%
Over 1.5 rate
70.8%
29.2%
Over 2.5 rate
58.3%
12.5%
Over 3.5 rate
37.5%
1.26
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.99
24
History Matches
24
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
1.00
Goals for per game
1.18
60.9%
Scoring rate
64.4%
43.5%
BTTS rate
55.6%
0.92
Goals for per game
1.04
54.2%
Scoring rate
62.5%
33.3%
BTTS rate
54.2%
1.50
Goals for per game
1.50
100.0%
Scoring rate
100.0%
50.0%
BTTS rate
50.0%
46
History Matches
45
1.00
Goals Mean
1.18
1.04
Goals Std
1.23
60.9%
Scored 1+ rate
64.4%
26.1%
Scored 2+ rate
31.1%
10.9%
Scored 3+ rate
13.3%
0.92
Venue Goals Mean
1.04
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
1.02
Goals against per game
1.62
67.4%
Conceding rate
77.8%
0.71
Goals against per game
1.88
50.0%
Conceding rate
75.0%
0.50
Goals against per game
1.00
50.0%
Conceding rate
50.0%
46
History Matches
45
1.02
Conceded Mean
1.62
0.97
Conceded Std
1.48
23.9%
Conceded 2+ rate
48.9%
8.7%
Conceded 3+ rate
17.8%
0.71
Venue Conceded Mean
1.88
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
32.6%
Clean-sheet rate
22.2%
39.1%
Failed-to-score rate
35.6%
50.0%
Clean-sheet rate
25.0%
45.8%
Failed-to-score rate
37.5%
50.0%
Clean-sheet rate
50.0%
0.0%
Failed-to-score rate
0.0%
32.6%
Clean-sheet rate
22.2%
39.1%
Failed-to-score rate
35.6%
50.0%
Clean-sheet rate
25.0%
45.8%
Failed-to-score rate
37.5%
32.6%
Clean-sheet rate
22.2%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
46
History Matches
45
0.99
Result entropy
0.95
1.38
Goal Difference Std
1.86
0.81
Stability score
4.73
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
42
Eligible Matches
38
12
Lead Matches
7
66.7%
Lead Win Rate
85.7%
0.75
Lead Points Retention
0.86
11
Trailing Matches
12
0.0%
Non-loss rate
8.3%
0.0%
Trailing Win Rate
0.0%
Goal timing5 signals
50
42
Halftime Coverage Matches
38
0.38
First Half Goals For Mean
0.63
0.36
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.79
0.57
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.58
0.62
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.82
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
73.00
Rest days
73.00
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
2
Short Rest History Matches
1
1.50
Short Rest Points Per Match
0.00
24
Normal Rest History Matches
24
1.08
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.17
19
Long Rest History Matches
19
1.47
Long Rest Points Per Match
0.95
Competition & season17 signals
170
2
Matches
2
3.00
PPG
1.50
100.0%
Win rate
50.0%
0.0%
Draw rate
0.0%
0.0%
Loss rate
50.0%
50.0%
Over 1.5 rate
100.0%
50.0%
Over 2.5 rate
50.0%
0.0%
Over 3.5 rate
0.0%
0.00
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.50
2
Current Competition Matches
2
3.00
Current Competition PPG
1.50
1.00
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
0.50
3
Competition Season Count
3
2
Eligible Competition Season Count
2
0.13
Portability PPG Std
0.02
0.26
Portability PPG Range
0.03
79.55
Portability Score
96.67
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
46
Clean History Matches
45
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
ELO49.75
PPG0.22
GF-0.18
GA-0.60
PPG1.50
PPG0.29
PPG1.80
PPG0.30
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches1
Clean-sheet rate10.4%
Failed-to-score rate3.6%
History Matches0
Clean-sheet rate25.0%
Failed-to-score rate8.3%
History Matches1
Goals Mean-0.18
Goals Std-0.19
Scored 1+ rate-0.04
Scored 2+ rate-0.05
Scored 3+ rate-0.02
Venue Goals Mean-0.13
Recent 10 Goals Mean-0.40
Recent 10 Goals Std-0.17
History Matches1
Conceded Mean-0.60
Conceded Std-0.51
Clean-sheet rate10.4%
Conceded 2+ rate-0.25
Conceded 3+ rate-0.09
Venue Conceded Mean-1.17
Recent 10 Conceded Mean-1.10
Recent 10 Conceded Std-0.91
History Matches1
Result entropy0.04
Goal Difference Std-0.48
Stability score-3.91
Recent 10 Result Entropy-0.04
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std-0.68
Eligible Matches4
Lead Matches5
Lead Win Rate-0.19
Lead Points Retention-0.11
Trailing Matches-1
Non-loss rate-0.08
Trailing Win Rate0.0%
Halftime Coverage Matches4
First Half Goals For Mean-0.25
First Half Goals Against Mean-0.43
Second Half Goals For Mean-0.01
Second Half Goals Against Mean-0.20
Current Competition Matches0
Current Competition PPG1.50
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean0.50
Competition Season Count0
Eligible Competition Season Count0
Portability PPG Std0.11
Portability PPG Range0.22
Portability Score-17.12
Rest days0.00
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches1
Short Rest Points Per Match1.50
Normal Rest History Matches0
Normal Rest Points Per Match-0.08
Long Rest History Matches0
Long Rest Points Per Match0.53
Current Team ELO49.75
Current Opponent ELO-49.75
Current ELO Difference99.50
Expected score0.14
History Matches1
Residual Mean0.06
Overperformance4.44
Recent 10 Residual Mean0.14

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Le Messager Ngozi

L
Vital'O2–0Le Messager Ngozi30 Oct · away
Pick: Vital'O 38% · hit
W
Le Messager Ngozi1–0Young Star25 Oct · home
Pick: Le Messager Ngozi 62% · hit
W
Flambeau du Centre0–1Le Messager Ngozi18 Oct · away
Pick: Flambeau du Centre 44% · missed
W
Le Messager Ngozi1–0Panthere Noir4 Oct · home
Pick: Le Messager Ngozi 61% · hit
Earlier results appear as match history is added

Ngozi City

L
Ngozi City1–2Never Give Up Academy1 Nov · home
Pick: Ngozi City 53% · missed
W
Ngozi City2–0Bumamuru18 Oct · home
Pick: Ngozi City 43% · hit
W
Ngozi City2–1Inter Star30 Aug · home
Pick: Ngozi City 48% · hit
Earlier results appear as match history is added

About this match

Le Messager Ngozi and Ngozi City meet in Ligue A on Wednesday 4 November 2026, kickoff 13:00 UTC. ScoreProb published its prediction on 29 Oct, 08:38 UTC: Le Messager Ngozi win 52.2%, draw 25.6%, Ngozi City win 22.1%. The pick is Le Messager Ngozi win. Over 2.5 goals: 45.9%. Both teams to score: 48.2%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.