ScoreProb
Ligue A Burundi Round 12 2026

Royal Vision vs Muzinga

Royal Vision Home · Elo 1,553
Sat 7 Nov
UTC
Not started
Muzinga Away · Elo 1,506
Venue to be confirmed Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Royal Vision win
Royal Vision winPick
53.7%
Draw
25.8%
Muzinga win
20.5%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Lineups · not provided for this competition by our data source
Live score and events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Live stats · not provided for this competition by our data source
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes53.2%
No46.8%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.553.2%
Under 2.546.8%

How much we know

Royal Vision history45 matches
Muzinga history31 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 2 h ahead
    1 Nov · 08:41 UTC
  2. Re-published 11 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 4 Nov · 07:21 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    7 Nov · 11:00 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 50–59% band (53.7%). Picks in that band won 55.8% of the time, and the model said 54.4% on average, over 3,719 matches.

Why Royal Vision are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • Royal Vision are rated 46 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,553 against 1,506. On rating alone Royal Vision would be expected to take 57% of the points on offer.

  • Royal Vision score more

    1.69 goals a game over 45 matches for Royal Vision, against 1.16 over 31 for Muzinga.

  • Defences are close

    Royal Vision concede 1.33 a game, Muzinga 1.23.

  • Both teams play a similar number of high-scoring games

    56% of Royal Vision matches, against 48% for Muzinga. The model puts this match at 53% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 24 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Royal Vision
Muzinga
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1552.6
ELO
1506.3
45
ELO · Matches
31
1552.6
Current Team ELO
1506.3
1506.3
Current Opponent ELO
1552.6
46.31
Current ELO Difference
-46.31
0.57
Expected score
0.43
45
History Matches
31
0.06
Residual Mean
0.01
54.23
Overperformance
50.49
0.26
Recent 10 Residual Mean
-0.07
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
2.00
PPG
2.00
1.00
Goals for per game
1.60
0.60
Goals against per game
1.00
60.0%
Win rate
60.0%
10
Matches
10
2.20
PPG
1.20
1.60
Goals for per game
1.30
0.70
Goals against per game
1.70
70.0%
Win rate
30.0%
1.60
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.30
1.43
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.10
0.70
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.70
0.90
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.19
0.73
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.99
1.64
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.56
Overall performance9 signals
90
45
Matches
31
1.60
PPG
1.39
48.9%
Win rate
35.5%
13.3%
Draw rate
32.3%
37.8%
Loss rate
32.3%
68.9%
Over 1.5 rate
67.7%
55.6%
Over 2.5 rate
48.4%
37.8%
Over 3.5 rate
19.4%
2.15
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.32
Venue performance10 signals
100
23
Matches
16
1.78
PPG
1.56
56.5%
Win rate
43.8%
8.7%
Draw rate
25.0%
34.8%
Loss rate
31.3%
78.3%
Over 1.5 rate
75.0%
65.2%
Over 2.5 rate
50.0%
43.5%
Over 3.5 rate
18.8%
2.24
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.33
23
History Matches
16
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
1.69
Goals for per game
1.16
71.1%
Scoring rate
77.4%
53.3%
BTTS rate
61.3%
2.09
Goals for per game
1.38
78.3%
Scoring rate
87.5%
56.5%
BTTS rate
68.8%
1.00
Goals for per game
1.00
50.0%
Scoring rate
100.0%
50.0%
BTTS rate
50.0%
45
History Matches
31
1.69
Goals Mean
1.16
1.76
Goals Std
0.92
71.1%
Scored 1+ rate
77.4%
46.7%
Scored 2+ rate
29.0%
24.4%
Scored 3+ rate
6.5%
2.09
Venue Goals Mean
1.38
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
1.33
Goals against per game
1.23
75.6%
Conceding rate
74.2%
1.30
Goals against per game
1.19
73.9%
Conceding rate
75.0%
0.50
Goals against per game
1.00
50.0%
Conceding rate
50.0%
45
History Matches
31
1.33
Conceded Mean
1.23
1.25
Conceded Std
1.07
28.9%
Conceded 2+ rate
32.3%
20.0%
Conceded 3+ rate
9.7%
1.30
Venue Conceded Mean
1.19
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
24.4%
Clean-sheet rate
25.8%
28.9%
Failed-to-score rate
22.6%
26.1%
Clean-sheet rate
25.0%
21.7%
Failed-to-score rate
12.5%
50.0%
Clean-sheet rate
50.0%
50.0%
Failed-to-score rate
0.0%
24.4%
Clean-sheet rate
25.8%
28.9%
Failed-to-score rate
22.6%
26.1%
Clean-sheet rate
25.0%
21.7%
Failed-to-score rate
12.5%
24.4%
Clean-sheet rate
25.8%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
45
History Matches
31
0.90
Result entropy
1.00
2.15
Goal Difference Std
1.32
10.23
Stability score
0.09
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
37
Eligible Matches
24
12
Lead Matches
5
91.7%
Lead Win Rate
80.0%
0.92
Lead Points Retention
0.87
12
Trailing Matches
9
41.7%
Non-loss rate
44.4%
33.3%
Trailing Win Rate
11.1%
Goal timing5 signals
50
37
Halftime Coverage Matches
24
0.68
First Half Goals For Mean
0.46
0.57
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.71
1.16
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.63
0.78
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.50
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Short Rest Points Per Match
75.92
Rest days
75.92
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
0
Short Rest History Matches
0
22
Normal Rest History Matches
15
1.64
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.20
22
Long Rest History Matches
15
1.50
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.60
Competition & season17 signals
170
2
Matches
2
2.00
PPG
1.50
50.0%
Win rate
50.0%
50.0%
Draw rate
0.0%
0.0%
Loss rate
50.0%
50.0%
Over 1.5 rate
50.0%
50.0%
Over 2.5 rate
50.0%
0.0%
Over 3.5 rate
0.0%
0.50
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.00
2
Current Competition Matches
2
2.00
Current Competition PPG
1.50
0.50
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
0.00
3
Competition Season Count
2
2
Eligible Competition Season Count
1
0.31
Portability PPG Std
—
0.61
Portability PPG Range
—
62.00
Portability Score
—
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
45
Clean History Matches
31
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scorePortability PPG StdPortability PPG RangePortability ScoreShort Rest Points Per Match
ELO46.31
PPG0.21
GF0.53
GA0.11
PPG0.50
PPG0.22
PPG0.00
PPG1.00
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches14
Clean-sheet rate-0.01
Failed-to-score rate6.3%
History Matches7
Clean-sheet rate1.1%
Failed-to-score rate9.2%
History Matches14
Goals Mean0.53
Goals Std0.84
Scored 1+ rate-0.06
Scored 2+ rate17.6%
Scored 3+ rate18.0%
Venue Goals Mean0.71
Recent 10 Goals Mean0.30
Recent 10 Goals Std0.33
History Matches14
Conceded Mean0.11
Conceded Std0.18
Clean-sheet rate-0.01
Conceded 2+ rate-0.03
Conceded 3+ rate10.3%
Venue Conceded Mean0.12
Recent 10 Conceded Mean-1.00
Recent 10 Conceded Std-0.29
History Matches14
Result entropy-0.10
Goal Difference Std0.83
Stability score10.13
Recent 10 Result Entropy-0.26
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std0.08
Eligible Matches13
Lead Matches7
Lead Win Rate11.7%
Lead Points Retention0.05
Trailing Matches3
Non-loss rate-0.03
Trailing Win Rate22.2%
Halftime Coverage Matches13
First Half Goals For Mean0.22
First Half Goals Against Mean-0.14
Second Half Goals For Mean0.54
Second Half Goals Against Mean0.28
Current Competition Matches0
Current Competition PPG0.50
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean0.50
Competition Season Count1
Eligible Competition Season Count1
Rest days0.00
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches0
Normal Rest History Matches7
Normal Rest Points Per Match0.44
Long Rest History Matches7
Long Rest Points Per Match-0.10
Current Team ELO46.31
Current Opponent ELO-46.31
Current ELO Difference92.63
Expected score0.13
History Matches14
Residual Mean0.05
Overperformance3.74
Recent 10 Residual Mean0.33

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Royal Vision

W
Royal Vision1–0Rukinzo31 Oct · home
Pick: Royal Vision 38% · hit
D
Aigle Noir1–1Royal Vision17 Oct · away
Pick: Aigle Noir 62% · missed
W
Royal Vision5–0Vital'O4 Oct · home
Pick: Royal Vision 37% · hit
W
Royal Vision2–1Flambeau du Centre29 Aug · home
Pick: Royal Vision 44% · hit
Earlier results appear as match history is added

Muzinga

W
Muzinga1–0Aigle Noir3 Nov · home
Pick: Aigle Noir 49% · missed
W
Kayanza United1–2Muzinga31 Oct · away
Pick: Kayanza United 45% · missed
D
Vital'O0–0Muzinga18 Oct · away
Pick: Vital'O 56% · missed
W
Muzinga1–0Panthere Noir30 Aug · home
Pick: Muzinga 56% · hit
Earlier results appear as match history is added

About this match

Royal Vision and Muzinga meet in Ligue A on Saturday 7 November 2026, kickoff 11:00 UTC. ScoreProb published its prediction on 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC: Royal Vision win 53.7%, draw 25.8%, Muzinga win 20.5%. The pick is Royal Vision win. Over 2.5 goals: 53.2%. Both teams to score: 53.2%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.