ScoreProb
Central Youth League Poland Round 14 2026

Lech Poznań U19 vs Stal Rzeszów U19

Lech Poznań U19 Home · Elo 1,599
Sun 8 Nov
UTC
Not started
Stal Rzeszów U19 Away · Elo 1,500
Venue to be confirmed Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 2 Nov, 08:51 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Lech Poznań U19 win
Lech Poznań U19 winPick
50.2%
Draw
24.0%
Stal Rzeszów U19 win
25.8%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Lineups · on the pitch, about an hour before kickoff
Live stats · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes61.8%
No38.2%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.565.9%
Under 2.534.1%

How much we know

Lech Poznań U19 history46 matches
Stal Rzeszów U19 history44 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 1 h ahead
    2 Nov · 08:51 UTC
  2. Re-published 2 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 2 Nov · 20:35 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    8 Nov · 10:00 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 50–59% band (50.2%). Picks in that band won 55.8% of the time, and the model said 54.4% on average, over 3,719 matches.

Why Lech Poznań U19 are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • Lech Poznań U19 are rated 99 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,599 against 1,500. On rating alone Lech Poznań U19 would be expected to take 64% of the points on offer.

  • Lech Poznań U19 score far more

    2.52 goals a game over 46 matches for Lech Poznań U19, against 1.41 over 44 for Stal Rzeszów U19.

  • Defences are close

    Lech Poznań U19 concede 1.54 a game, Stal Rzeszów U19 1.70.

  • Lech Poznań U19 games more often go over 2.5 goals

    80% of Lech Poznań U19 matches, against 57% for Stal Rzeszów U19. The model puts this match at 66% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 22 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Lech Poznań U19
Stal Rzeszów U19
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1598.8
ELO
1500.1
46
ELO · Matches
44
1598.8
Current Team ELO
1500.1
1500.1
Current Opponent ELO
1598.8
98.67
Current ELO Difference
-98.67
0.64
Expected score
0.36
46
History Matches
44
0.10
Residual Mean
0.00
57.03
Overperformance
49.78
0.10
Recent 10 Residual Mean
0.07
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
1.80
PPG
1.60
2.00
Goals for per game
1.20
1.60
Goals against per game
0.80
60.0%
Win rate
40.0%
10
Matches
10
2.10
PPG
1.20
2.10
Goals for per game
1.10
1.50
Goals against per game
1.20
70.0%
Win rate
20.0%
2.10
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.10
1.04
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.14
1.50
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.20
1.12
Recent 10 Conceded Std
0.87
0.56
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.86
1.43
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.51
Overall performance9 signals
90
46
Matches
44
2.02
PPG
1.25
63.0%
Win rate
34.1%
13.0%
Draw rate
22.7%
23.9%
Loss rate
43.2%
82.6%
Over 1.5 rate
77.3%
80.4%
Over 2.5 rate
56.8%
63.0%
Over 3.5 rate
36.4%
2.05
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.15
Venue performance10 signals
100
22
Matches
23
2.09
PPG
0.70
63.6%
Win rate
17.4%
18.2%
Draw rate
17.4%
18.2%
Loss rate
65.2%
86.4%
Over 1.5 rate
73.9%
86.4%
Over 2.5 rate
60.9%
68.2%
Over 3.5 rate
43.5%
2.02
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.76
22
History Matches
23
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
2.52
Goals for per game
1.41
91.3%
Scoring rate
77.3%
69.6%
BTTS rate
56.8%
2.86
Goals for per game
1.04
95.5%
Scoring rate
69.6%
68.2%
BTTS rate
60.9%
1.67
Goals for per game
0.67
100.0%
Scoring rate
66.7%
66.7%
BTTS rate
33.3%
46
History Matches
44
2.52
Goals Mean
1.41
1.60
Goals Std
1.21
91.3%
Scored 1+ rate
77.3%
71.7%
Scored 2+ rate
36.4%
45.7%
Scored 3+ rate
18.2%
2.86
Venue Goals Mean
1.04
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
1.54
Goals against per game
1.70
78.3%
Conceding rate
75.0%
1.41
Goals against per game
2.22
72.7%
Conceding rate
87.0%
1.33
Goals against per game
0.33
66.7%
Conceding rate
33.3%
46
History Matches
44
1.54
Conceded Mean
1.70
1.17
Conceded Std
1.63
50.0%
Conceded 2+ rate
43.2%
19.6%
Conceded 3+ rate
27.3%
1.41
Venue Conceded Mean
2.22
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
21.7%
Clean-sheet rate
25.0%
8.7%
Failed-to-score rate
22.7%
27.3%
Clean-sheet rate
13.0%
4.5%
Failed-to-score rate
30.4%
33.3%
Clean-sheet rate
66.7%
0.0%
Failed-to-score rate
33.3%
21.7%
Clean-sheet rate
25.0%
8.7%
Failed-to-score rate
22.7%
27.3%
Clean-sheet rate
13.0%
4.5%
Failed-to-score rate
30.4%
21.7%
Clean-sheet rate
25.0%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
46
History Matches
44
0.82
Result entropy
0.97
2.05
Goal Difference Std
2.15
18.20
Stability score
2.95
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
35
Eligible Matches
37
12
Lead Matches
13
91.7%
Lead Win Rate
69.2%
0.94
Lead Points Retention
0.79
11
Trailing Matches
8
36.4%
Non-loss rate
12.5%
18.2%
Trailing Win Rate
0.0%
Goal timing5 signals
50
35
Halftime Coverage Matches
37
1.14
First Half Goals For Mean
0.59
1.03
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.49
1.09
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.78
0.66
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.95
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
78.00
Rest days
78.04
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
0
Short Rest History Matches
1
—
Short Rest Points Per Match
0.00
23
Normal Rest History Matches
20
2.09
Normal Rest Points Per Match
2.00
22
Long Rest History Matches
22
1.91
Long Rest Points Per Match
0.68
Competition & season17 signals
170
3
Matches
3
2.00
PPG
1.67
66.7%
Win rate
33.3%
0.0%
Draw rate
66.7%
33.3%
Loss rate
0.0%
66.7%
Over 1.5 rate
33.3%
66.7%
Over 2.5 rate
0.0%
33.3%
Over 3.5 rate
0.0%
0.94
Goal difference · Standard deviation
0.47
3
Current Competition Matches
3
2.00
Current Competition PPG
1.67
0.33
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
0.33
4
Competition Season Count
3
3
Eligible Competition Season Count
3
0.09
Portability PPG Std
0.31
0.22
Portability PPG Range
0.75
84.30
Portability Score
61.94
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
46
Clean History Matches
44
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scoreShort Rest Points Per Match
ELO98.67
PPG0.77
GF1.11
GA-0.16
PPG0.33
PPG1.40
PPG0.20
PPG0.90
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches2
Clean-sheet rate-0.03
Failed-to-score rate-0.14
History Matches-1
Clean-sheet rate14.2%
Failed-to-score rate-0.26
History Matches2
Goals Mean1.11
Goals Std0.39
Scored 1+ rate14.0%
Scored 2+ rate35.4%
Scored 3+ rate27.5%
Venue Goals Mean1.82
Recent 10 Goals Mean1.00
Recent 10 Goals Std-0.09
History Matches2
Conceded Mean-0.16
Conceded Std-0.46
Clean-sheet rate-0.03
Conceded 2+ rate6.8%
Conceded 3+ rate-0.08
Venue Conceded Mean-0.81
Recent 10 Conceded Mean0.30
Recent 10 Conceded Std0.25
History Matches2
Result entropy-0.15
Goal Difference Std-0.10
Stability score15.25
Recent 10 Result Entropy-0.31
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std-0.08
Eligible Matches-2
Lead Matches-1
Lead Win Rate22.4%
Lead Points Retention0.15
Trailing Matches3
Non-loss rate23.9%
Trailing Win Rate18.2%
Halftime Coverage Matches-2
First Half Goals For Mean0.55
First Half Goals Against Mean0.54
Second Half Goals For Mean0.30
Second Half Goals Against Mean-0.29
Current Competition Matches0
Current Competition PPG0.33
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean0.00
Competition Season Count1
Eligible Competition Season Count0
Portability PPG Std-0.21
Portability PPG Range-0.53
Portability Score22.36
Rest days-0.04
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches-1
Normal Rest History Matches3
Normal Rest Points Per Match0.09
Long Rest History Matches0
Long Rest Points Per Match1.23
Current Team ELO98.67
Current Opponent ELO-98.67
Current ELO Difference197.3
Expected score0.28
History Matches2
Residual Mean0.10
Overperformance7.25
Recent 10 Residual Mean0.03

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Lech Poznań U19

L
Górnik Zabrze U192–0Lech Poznań U1930 Oct · away
Pick: Górnik Zabrze U19 45% · hit
W
Lech Poznań U194–1Talent Warszawa U1924 Oct · home
Pick: Lech Poznań U19 54% · hit
W
Lech Poznań U193–0Escola Varsovia U1918 Oct · home
Pick: Lech Poznań U19 62% · hit
L
Jagiellonia U195–3Lech Poznań U1914 Oct · away
Pick: Lech Poznań U19 40% · missed
L
Lech Poznań U190–3Miedź Legnica U194 Oct · home
Pick: Lech Poznań U19 61% · missed

Stal Rzeszów U19

D
Stal Rzeszów U190–0Korona Kielce U1930 Oct · home
Pick: Stal Rzeszów U19 60% · missed
L
Miedź Legnica U192–0Stal Rzeszów U1924 Oct · away
Pick: Stal Rzeszów U19 44% · missed
W
Stal Rzeszów U191–0Jagiellonia U1917 Oct · home
Pick: Stal Rzeszów U19 47% · hit
L
Stal Rzeszów U190–1Raków Częstochowa U194 Oct · home
Pick: Stal Rzeszów U19 56% · missed
L
Polonia Warszawa U192–1Stal Rzeszów U1929 Aug · away
Pick: Polonia Warszawa U19 45% · hit

About this match

Lech Poznań U19 and Stal Rzeszów U19 meet in Central Youth League on Sunday 8 November 2026, kickoff 10:00 UTC. ScoreProb published its prediction on 2 Nov, 08:51 UTC: Lech Poznań U19 win 50.2%, draw 24.0%, Stal Rzeszów U19 win 25.8%. The pick is Lech Poznań U19 win. Over 2.5 goals: 65.9%. Both teams to score: 61.8%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.