ScoreProb
Ekstraklasa Poland Round 14 2026

Legia Warszawa vs Raków Częstochowa

Legia Warszawa Home · Elo 1,628
Sun 8 Nov
UTC
Not started
Raków Częstochowa Away · Elo 1,596
Stadion Wojska Polskiego, Warsaw Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 2 Nov, 08:51 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Legia Warszawa win
Legia Warszawa winPick
61.7%
Draw
18.7%
Raków Częstochowa win
19.6%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Lineups · on the pitch, about an hour before kickoff
Live score and events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Live stats · shots, possession, corners, side by side
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes50.8%
No49.2%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.556.5%
Under 2.543.5%

How much we know

Legia Warszawa history91 matches
Raków Częstochowa history90 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 7 h ahead
    2 Nov · 08:51 UTC
  2. Re-published 2 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 2 Nov · 20:35 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    8 Nov · 16:30 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 60–69% band (61.7%). Picks in that band won 63.6% of the time, and the model said 64.3% on average, over 1,851 matches.

Why Legia Warszawa are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • Legia Warszawa are rated 32 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,628 against 1,596. On rating alone Legia Warszawa would be expected to take 55% of the points on offer.

  • Scoring rates are level

    1.57 goals a game over 91 matches for Legia Warszawa, against 1.61 over 90 for Raków Częstochowa.

  • Raków Częstochowa concede fewer

    Legia Warszawa concede 1.19 a game, Raków Częstochowa 1.07.

  • Both teams play a similar number of high-scoring games

    54% of Legia Warszawa matches, against 51% for Raków Częstochowa. The model puts this match at 56% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 22 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Legia Warszawa
Raków Częstochowa
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1628.4
ELO
1596.1
91
ELO · Matches
90
1628.4
Current Team ELO
1596.1
1596.1
Current Opponent ELO
1628.4
32.33
Current ELO Difference
-32.33
0.55
Expected score
0.45
91
History Matches
90
0.08
Residual Mean
0.05
56.28
Overperformance
54.36
0.17
Recent 10 Residual Mean
-0.09
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
2.20
PPG
1.40
2.20
Goals for per game
1.40
0.60
Goals against per game
0.80
60.0%
Win rate
40.0%
10
Matches
10
2.30
PPG
1.10
2.00
Goals for per game
1.50
0.80
Goals against per game
1.30
70.0%
Win rate
30.0%
2.00
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.50
1.41
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.12
0.80
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.30
0.60
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.00
0.73
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.94
1.72
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.60
Overall performance9 signals
90
91
Matches
90
1.66
PPG
1.72
46.2%
Win rate
50.0%
27.5%
Draw rate
22.2%
26.4%
Loss rate
27.8%
74.7%
Over 1.5 rate
78.9%
53.8%
Over 2.5 rate
51.1%
35.2%
Over 3.5 rate
25.6%
1.60
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.51
Venue performance10 signals
100
49
Matches
44
1.86
PPG
1.55
53.1%
Win rate
43.2%
26.5%
Draw rate
25.0%
20.4%
Loss rate
31.8%
63.3%
Over 1.5 rate
79.5%
49.0%
Over 2.5 rate
47.7%
32.7%
Over 3.5 rate
25.0%
1.53
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.49
49
History Matches
44
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
1.57
Goals for per game
1.61
82.4%
Scoring rate
85.6%
60.4%
BTTS rate
57.8%
1.59
Goals for per game
1.50
75.5%
Scoring rate
84.1%
51.0%
BTTS rate
61.4%
2.20
Goals for per game
1.00
100.0%
Scoring rate
100.0%
60.0%
BTTS rate
100.0%
91
History Matches
90
1.57
Goals Mean
1.61
1.19
Goals Std
1.12
82.4%
Scored 1+ rate
85.6%
46.2%
Scored 2+ rate
45.6%
18.7%
Scored 3+ rate
23.3%
1.59
Venue Goals Mean
1.50
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
1.19
Goals against per game
1.07
72.5%
Conceding rate
66.7%
0.90
Goals against per game
1.18
65.3%
Conceding rate
70.5%
0.60
Goals against per game
2.00
60.0%
Conceding rate
100.0%
91
History Matches
90
1.19
Conceded Mean
1.07
1.04
Conceded Std
1.00
29.7%
Conceded 2+ rate
28.9%
14.3%
Conceded 3+ rate
8.9%
0.90
Venue Conceded Mean
1.18
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
27.5%
Clean-sheet rate
33.3%
17.6%
Failed-to-score rate
14.4%
34.7%
Clean-sheet rate
29.5%
24.5%
Failed-to-score rate
15.9%
40.0%
Clean-sheet rate
0.0%
0.0%
Failed-to-score rate
0.0%
27.5%
Clean-sheet rate
33.3%
17.6%
Failed-to-score rate
14.4%
34.7%
Clean-sheet rate
29.5%
24.5%
Failed-to-score rate
15.9%
27.5%
Clean-sheet rate
33.3%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
91
History Matches
90
0.97
Result entropy
0.94
1.60
Goal Difference Std
1.51
3.21
Stability score
5.64
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
90
Eligible Matches
89
32
Lead Matches
33
84.4%
Lead Win Rate
84.8%
0.86
Lead Points Retention
0.89
25
Trailing Matches
16
40.0%
Non-loss rate
37.5%
24.0%
Trailing Win Rate
12.5%
Goal timing5 signals
50
90
Halftime Coverage Matches
89
0.70
First Half Goals For Mean
0.71
0.59
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.40
0.87
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.90
0.59
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.67
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
78.04
Rest days
84.04
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
12
Short Rest History Matches
14
0.75
Short Rest Points Per Match
0.93
57
Normal Rest History Matches
58
1.82
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.93
21
Long Rest History Matches
17
1.76
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.71
Competition & season17 signals
170
5
Matches
3
2.20
PPG
0.00
60.0%
Win rate
0.0%
40.0%
Draw rate
0.0%
0.0%
Loss rate
100.0%
80.0%
Over 1.5 rate
100.0%
40.0%
Over 2.5 rate
100.0%
40.0%
Over 3.5 rate
0.0%
1.85
Goal difference · Standard deviation
0.00
5
Current Competition Matches
3
2.20
Current Competition PPG
0.00
1.60
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
-1.00
11
Competition Season Count
8
8
Eligible Competition Season Count
8
0.58
Portability PPG Std
0.70
1.88
Portability PPG Range
2.50
46.29
Portability Score
41.74
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
91
Clean History Matches
90
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
ELO32.33
PPG-0.06
GF-0.04
GA0.12
PPG2.20
PPG0.31
PPG0.80
PPG1.20
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches1
Clean-sheet rate-0.06
Failed-to-score rate3.1%
History Matches5
Clean-sheet rate5.1%
Failed-to-score rate8.6%
History Matches1
Goals Mean-0.04
Goals Std0.06
Scored 1+ rate-0.03
Scored 2+ rate0.6%
Scored 3+ rate-0.05
Venue Goals Mean0.09
Recent 10 Goals Mean0.50
Recent 10 Goals Std0.30
History Matches1
Conceded Mean0.12
Conceded Std0.04
Clean-sheet rate-0.06
Conceded 2+ rate0.8%
Conceded 3+ rate5.4%
Venue Conceded Mean-0.28
Recent 10 Conceded Mean-0.50
Recent 10 Conceded Std-0.40
History Matches1
Result entropy0.02
Goal Difference Std0.09
Stability score-2.43
Recent 10 Result Entropy-0.21
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std0.12
Eligible Matches1
Lead Matches-1
Lead Win Rate0.00
Lead Points Retention-0.02
Trailing Matches9
Non-loss rate2.5%
Trailing Win Rate11.5%
Halftime Coverage Matches1
First Half Goals For Mean-0.01
First Half Goals Against Mean0.18
Second Half Goals For Mean-0.03
Second Half Goals Against Mean-0.09
Current Competition Matches2
Current Competition PPG2.20
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean2.60
Competition Season Count3
Eligible Competition Season Count0
Portability PPG Std-0.12
Portability PPG Range-0.63
Portability Score4.55
Rest days-6.00
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches-2
Short Rest Points Per Match-0.18
Normal Rest History Matches-1
Normal Rest Points Per Match-0.11
Long Rest History Matches4
Long Rest Points Per Match0.06
Current Team ELO32.33
Current Opponent ELO-32.33
Current ELO Difference64.67
Expected score0.09
History Matches1
Residual Mean0.02
Overperformance1.92
Recent 10 Residual Mean0.26

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Legia Warszawa

D
Gornik Zabrze0–0Legia Warszawa30 Oct · away
Pick: Legia Warszawa 39% · missed
L
Legia Warszawa1–2Lech Poznan25 Oct · home
Pick: Legia Warszawa 40% · missed
D
Cracovia Krakow1–1Legia Warszawa17 Oct · away
Pick: Legia Warszawa 56% · missed
L
Motor Lublin3–0Legia Warszawa1 Sep · away
Pick: Legia Warszawa 50% · missed
Earlier results appear as match history is added

Raków Częstochowa

W
Raków Częstochowa3–1Pogon Szczecin2 Nov · home
Pick: Raków Częstochowa 51% · hit
L
Wisla Krakow2–1Raków Częstochowa24 Oct · away
Pick: Wisla Krakow 45% · hit
W
Wieczysta Kraków1–2Raków Częstochowa16 Oct · away
Pick: Wieczysta Kraków 43% · missed
L
Raków Częstochowa2–5Jagiellonia30 Aug · home
Pick: Jagiellonia 41% · hit
Earlier results appear as match history is added

About this match

Legia Warszawa and Raków Częstochowa meet in Ekstraklasa on Sunday 8 November 2026, kickoff 16:30 UTC. The match is played at Stadion Wojska Polskiego, Warsaw. ScoreProb published its prediction on 2 Nov, 08:51 UTC: Legia Warszawa win 61.7%, draw 18.7%, Raków Częstochowa win 19.6%. The pick is Legia Warszawa win. Over 2.5 goals: 56.5%. Both teams to score: 50.8%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.