ScoreProb
Ekstraklasa Poland Round 14 2026

Jagiellonia vs GKS Katowice

Jagiellonia Home · Elo 1,643
Sun 8 Nov
UTC
Not started
GKS Katowice Away · Elo 1,587
Chorten Arena, Bialystok Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 2 Nov, 08:51 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Jagiellonia win
Jagiellonia winPick
44.4%
Draw
31.5%
GKS Katowice win
24.1%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Lineups · on the pitch, about an hour before kickoff
Live score and events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Live stats · shots, possession, corners, side by side
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes54.0%
No46.0%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.554.2%
Under 2.545.8%

How much we know

Jagiellonia history92 matches
GKS Katowice history76 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 4 h ahead
    2 Nov · 08:51 UTC
  2. Re-published 2 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 2 Nov · 20:35 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    8 Nov · 13:45 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 40–49% band (44.4%). Picks in that band won 45.4% of the time, and the model said 44.8% on average, over 6,162 matches.

Why Jagiellonia are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • Jagiellonia are rated 55 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,643 against 1,587. On rating alone Jagiellonia would be expected to take 58% of the points on offer.

  • Scoring rates are level

    1.57 goals a game over 92 matches for Jagiellonia, against 1.68 over 76 for GKS Katowice.

  • Defences are close

    Jagiellonia concede 1.15 a game, GKS Katowice 1.24.

  • Both teams play a similar number of high-scoring games

    55% of Jagiellonia matches, against 59% for GKS Katowice. The model puts this match at 54% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 24 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Jagiellonia
GKS Katowice
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1642.7
ELO
1587.5
92
ELO · Matches
76
1642.7
Current Team ELO
1587.5
1587.5
Current Opponent ELO
1642.7
55.23
Current ELO Difference
-55.23
0.58
Expected score
0.42
92
History Matches
76
0.08
Residual Mean
0.07
56.40
Overperformance
55.64
0.26
Recent 10 Residual Mean
0.03
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
2.00
PPG
1.80
1.20
Goals for per game
2.00
1.00
Goals against per game
1.00
60.0%
Win rate
60.0%
10
Matches
10
2.30
PPG
1.60
1.10
Goals for per game
1.90
0.60
Goals against per game
1.20
70.0%
Win rate
50.0%
1.10
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.90
0.70
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.51
0.60
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.20
0.66
Recent 10 Conceded Std
0.60
0.73
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.86
0.92
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
2.00
Overall performance9 signals
90
92
Matches
76
1.74
PPG
1.64
48.9%
Win rate
48.7%
27.2%
Draw rate
18.4%
23.9%
Loss rate
32.9%
77.2%
Over 1.5 rate
78.9%
55.4%
Over 2.5 rate
59.2%
28.3%
Over 3.5 rate
32.9%
1.79
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.93
Venue performance10 signals
100
47
Matches
32
2.02
PPG
0.94
61.7%
Win rate
25.0%
17.0%
Draw rate
18.8%
21.3%
Loss rate
56.3%
76.6%
Over 1.5 rate
78.1%
59.6%
Over 2.5 rate
56.3%
31.9%
Over 3.5 rate
21.9%
1.83
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.66
47
History Matches
32
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
1.57
Goals for per game
1.68
84.8%
Scoring rate
77.6%
58.7%
BTTS rate
52.6%
1.87
Goals for per game
1.16
89.4%
Scoring rate
62.5%
53.2%
BTTS rate
50.0%
1.00
Goals for per game
2.25
66.7%
Scoring rate
75.0%
33.3%
BTTS rate
50.0%
92
History Matches
76
1.57
Goals Mean
1.68
1.20
Goals Std
1.42
84.8%
Scored 1+ rate
77.6%
40.2%
Scored 2+ rate
50.0%
21.7%
Scored 3+ rate
26.3%
1.87
Venue Goals Mean
1.16
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
1.15
Goals against per game
1.24
67.4%
Conceding rate
72.4%
1.00
Goals against per game
1.66
61.7%
Conceding rate
84.4%
1.00
Goals against per game
1.00
66.7%
Conceding rate
75.0%
92
History Matches
76
1.15
Conceded Mean
1.24
1.17
Conceded Std
1.04
31.5%
Conceded 2+ rate
35.5%
9.8%
Conceded 3+ rate
14.5%
1.00
Venue Conceded Mean
1.66
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
32.6%
Clean-sheet rate
27.6%
15.2%
Failed-to-score rate
22.4%
38.3%
Clean-sheet rate
15.6%
10.6%
Failed-to-score rate
37.5%
33.3%
Clean-sheet rate
25.0%
33.3%
Failed-to-score rate
25.0%
32.6%
Clean-sheet rate
27.6%
15.2%
Failed-to-score rate
22.4%
38.3%
Clean-sheet rate
15.6%
10.6%
Failed-to-score rate
37.5%
32.6%
Clean-sheet rate
27.6%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
92
History Matches
76
0.95
Result entropy
0.94
1.79
Goal Difference Std
1.93
4.79
Stability score
6.45
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
92
Eligible Matches
76
31
Lead Matches
30
80.6%
Lead Win Rate
80.0%
0.86
Lead Points Retention
0.86
14
Trailing Matches
23
21.4%
Non-loss rate
26.1%
7.1%
Trailing Win Rate
13.0%
Goal timing5 signals
50
92
Halftime Coverage Matches
76
0.78
First Half Goals For Mean
0.78
0.51
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.61
0.78
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.91
0.64
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.63
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
86.80
Rest days
76.93
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
19
Short Rest History Matches
8
2.16
Short Rest Points Per Match
2.13
55
Normal Rest History Matches
35
1.58
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.57
17
Long Rest History Matches
32
1.71
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.56
Competition & season17 signals
170
3
Matches
4
2.00
PPG
1.50
66.7%
Win rate
50.0%
0.0%
Draw rate
0.0%
33.3%
Loss rate
50.0%
66.7%
Over 1.5 rate
75.0%
33.3%
Over 2.5 rate
75.0%
0.0%
Over 3.5 rate
50.0%
1.41
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.49
3
Current Competition Matches
4
2.00
Current Competition PPG
1.50
0.00
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
1.25
11
Competition Season Count
7
7
Eligible Competition Season Count
7
0.23
Portability PPG Std
0.26
0.72
Portability PPG Range
0.73
68.15
Portability Score
65.56
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
92
Clean History Matches
76
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
ELO55.23
PPG0.09
GF-0.12
GA-0.08
PPG0.50
PPG1.08
PPG0.20
PPG0.70
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches16
Clean-sheet rate5.0%
Failed-to-score rate-0.07
History Matches15
Clean-sheet rate22.7%
Failed-to-score rate-0.27
History Matches16
Goals Mean-0.12
Goals Std-0.22
Scored 1+ rate7.2%
Scored 2+ rate-0.10
Scored 3+ rate-0.05
Venue Goals Mean0.72
Recent 10 Goals Mean-0.80
Recent 10 Goals Std-0.81
History Matches16
Conceded Mean-0.08
Conceded Std0.13
Clean-sheet rate5.0%
Conceded 2+ rate-0.04
Conceded 3+ rate-0.05
Venue Conceded Mean-0.66
Recent 10 Conceded Mean-0.60
Recent 10 Conceded Std0.06
History Matches16
Result entropy0.02
Goal Difference Std-0.13
Stability score-1.65
Recent 10 Result Entropy-0.13
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std-1.08
Eligible Matches16
Lead Matches1
Lead Win Rate0.6%
Lead Points Retention0.00
Trailing Matches-9
Non-loss rate-0.05
Trailing Win Rate-0.06
Halftime Coverage Matches16
First Half Goals For Mean0.01
First Half Goals Against Mean-0.09
Second Half Goals For Mean-0.13
Second Half Goals Against Mean0.01
Current Competition Matches-1
Current Competition PPG0.50
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean-1.25
Competition Season Count4
Eligible Competition Season Count0
Portability PPG Std-0.03
Portability PPG Range-0.01
Portability Score2.58
Rest days9.88
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches11
Short Rest Points Per Match0.03
Normal Rest History Matches20
Normal Rest Points Per Match0.01
Long Rest History Matches-15
Long Rest Points Per Match0.14
Current Team ELO55.23
Current Opponent ELO-55.23
Current ELO Difference110.5
Expected score0.16
History Matches16
Residual Mean0.01
Overperformance0.76
Recent 10 Residual Mean0.23

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Jagiellonia

W
Lechia Gdansk0–6Jagiellonia28 Oct · away
Pick: Jagiellonia 56% · hit
W
Jagiellonia1–0Wisla Plock25 Oct · home
Pick: Jagiellonia 60% · hit
L
Jagiellonia0–3Anderlecht22 Oct · home
Pick: Jagiellonia 51% · missed
L
Zaglebie Lubin1–0Jagiellonia18 Oct · away
Pick: Zaglebie Lubin 38% · hit
W
Jagiellonia3–1Ararat-Armenia15 Oct · home
Pick: Jagiellonia 46% · hit

GKS Katowice

L
Górnik Łęczna1–0GKS Katowice27 Oct · away
Pick: GKS Katowice 42% · missed
L
Korona Kielce1–0GKS Katowice24 Oct · away
Pick: GKS Katowice 43% · missed
L
GKS Katowice0–1Pogon Szczecin17 Oct · home
Pick: GKS Katowice 56% · missed
W
GKS Katowice2–1Wieczysta Kraków12 Oct · home
Pick: GKS Katowice 60% · hit
W
Gornik Zabrze2–3GKS Katowice30 Aug · away
Pick: Gornik Zabrze 44% · missed

About this match

Jagiellonia and GKS Katowice meet in Ekstraklasa on Sunday 8 November 2026, kickoff 13:45 UTC. The match is played at Chorten Arena, Bialystok. ScoreProb published its prediction on 2 Nov, 08:51 UTC: Jagiellonia win 44.4%, draw 31.5%, GKS Katowice win 24.1%. The pick is Jagiellonia win. Over 2.5 goals: 54.2%. Both teams to score: 54.0%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.