ScoreProb
Ekstraklasa Poland Round 14 2026

Lech Poznan vs Zaglebie Lubin

Lech Poznan Home · Elo 1,686
Sun 8 Nov
UTC
Not started
Zaglebie Lubin Away · Elo 1,535
Stadion Poznan Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 2 Nov, 08:51 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Lech Poznan win
Lech Poznan winPick
61.1%
Draw
21.4%
Zaglebie Lubin win
17.5%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Lineups · on the pitch, about an hour before kickoff
Live score and events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Live stats · shots, possession, corners, side by side
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes54.5%
No45.5%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.561.1%
Under 2.538.9%

How much we know

Lech Poznan history85 matches
Zaglebie Lubin history71 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 10 h ahead
    2 Nov · 08:51 UTC
  2. Re-published 2 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 2 Nov · 20:35 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    8 Nov · 19:15 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 60–69% band (61.1%). Picks in that band won 63.6% of the time, and the model said 64.3% on average, over 1,851 matches.

Why Lech Poznan are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • Lech Poznan are rated 151 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,686 against 1,535. On rating alone Lech Poznan would be expected to take 70% of the points on offer.

  • Lech Poznan score far more

    1.94 goals a game over 85 matches for Lech Poznan, against 1.25 over 71 for Zaglebie Lubin.

  • Defences are close

    Lech Poznan concede 1.20 a game, Zaglebie Lubin 1.18.

  • Lech Poznan games more often go over 2.5 goals

    68% of Lech Poznan matches, against 48% for Zaglebie Lubin. The model puts this match at 61% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 23 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Lech Poznan
Zaglebie Lubin
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1686.4
ELO
1535.5
85
ELO · Matches
71
1686.4
Current Team ELO
1535.5
1535.5
Current Opponent ELO
1686.4
151.0
Current ELO Difference
-151.0
0.70
Expected score
0.30
85
History Matches
71
0.12
Residual Mean
0.03
59.49
Overperformance
52.34
0.26
Recent 10 Residual Mean
0.17
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
2.40
PPG
2.00
2.20
Goals for per game
1.60
0.80
Goals against per game
0.80
80.0%
Win rate
60.0%
10
Matches
10
2.50
PPG
1.90
2.50
Goals for per game
1.60
0.70
Goals against per game
1.00
80.0%
Win rate
60.0%
2.50
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.60
1.63
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.20
0.70
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.00
0.90
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.10
0.58
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.82
2.14
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.91
Overall performance9 signals
90
85
Matches
71
1.89
PPG
1.37
56.5%
Win rate
36.6%
20.0%
Draw rate
26.8%
23.5%
Loss rate
36.6%
78.8%
Over 1.5 rate
67.6%
68.2%
Over 2.5 rate
47.9%
40.0%
Over 3.5 rate
29.6%
1.87
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.56
Venue performance10 signals
100
47
Matches
34
1.85
PPG
1.24
55.3%
Win rate
32.4%
19.1%
Draw rate
26.5%
25.5%
Loss rate
41.2%
85.1%
Over 1.5 rate
55.9%
74.5%
Over 2.5 rate
44.1%
48.9%
Over 3.5 rate
29.4%
2.19
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.39
47
History Matches
34
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
1.94
Goals for per game
1.25
88.2%
Scoring rate
67.6%
64.7%
BTTS rate
49.3%
2.17
Goals for per game
1.00
89.4%
Scoring rate
64.7%
70.2%
BTTS rate
50.0%
1.67
Goals for per game
1.25
66.7%
Scoring rate
75.0%
33.3%
BTTS rate
50.0%
85
History Matches
71
1.94
Goals Mean
1.25
1.46
Goals Std
1.17
88.2%
Scored 1+ rate
67.6%
57.6%
Scored 2+ rate
40.8%
24.7%
Scored 3+ rate
11.3%
2.17
Venue Goals Mean
1.00
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
1.20
Goals against per game
1.18
71.8%
Conceding rate
69.0%
1.34
Goals against per game
1.21
78.7%
Conceding rate
70.6%
0.33
Goals against per game
1.00
33.3%
Conceding rate
50.0%
85
History Matches
71
1.20
Conceded Mean
1.18
1.08
Conceded Std
1.08
30.6%
Conceded 2+ rate
33.8%
14.1%
Conceded 3+ rate
12.7%
1.34
Venue Conceded Mean
1.21
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
28.2%
Clean-sheet rate
31.0%
11.8%
Failed-to-score rate
32.4%
21.3%
Clean-sheet rate
29.4%
10.6%
Failed-to-score rate
35.3%
66.7%
Clean-sheet rate
50.0%
33.3%
Failed-to-score rate
25.0%
28.2%
Clean-sheet rate
31.0%
11.8%
Failed-to-score rate
32.4%
21.3%
Clean-sheet rate
29.4%
10.6%
Failed-to-score rate
35.3%
28.2%
Clean-sheet rate
31.0%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
85
History Matches
71
0.90
Result entropy
0.99
1.87
Goal Difference Std
1.56
10.34
Stability score
0.92
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
85
Eligible Matches
70
41
Lead Matches
20
87.8%
Lead Win Rate
70.0%
0.90
Lead Points Retention
0.77
15
Trailing Matches
21
33.3%
Non-loss rate
23.8%
6.7%
Trailing Win Rate
23.8%
Goal timing5 signals
50
85
Halftime Coverage Matches
70
1.08
First Half Goals For Mean
0.59
0.49
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.59
0.86
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.66
0.71
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.59
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
86.05
Rest days
77.27
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
12
Short Rest History Matches
6
2.25
Short Rest Points Per Match
1.50
50
Normal Rest History Matches
34
1.78
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.38
22
Long Rest History Matches
30
1.91
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.37
Competition & season17 signals
170
3
Matches
4
2.33
PPG
1.75
66.7%
Win rate
50.0%
33.3%
Draw rate
25.0%
0.0%
Loss rate
25.0%
66.7%
Over 1.5 rate
75.0%
66.7%
Over 2.5 rate
50.0%
0.0%
Over 3.5 rate
25.0%
1.25
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.48
3
Current Competition Matches
4
2.33
Current Competition PPG
1.75
1.33
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
0.25
13
Competition Season Count
6
7
Eligible Competition Season Count
5
0.24
Portability PPG Std
0.44
0.65
Portability PPG Range
1.27
67.77
Portability Score
53.38
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
85
Clean History Matches
71
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
ELO151.0
PPG0.53
GF0.69
GA0.02
PPG0.58
PPG0.62
PPG0.40
PPG0.60
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches14
Clean-sheet rate-0.03
Failed-to-score rate-0.21
History Matches13
Clean-sheet rate-0.08
Failed-to-score rate-0.25
History Matches14
Goals Mean0.69
Goals Std0.29
Scored 1+ rate20.6%
Scored 2+ rate16.8%
Scored 3+ rate13.4%
Venue Goals Mean1.17
Recent 10 Goals Mean0.90
Recent 10 Goals Std0.43
History Matches14
Conceded Mean0.02
Conceded Std0.00
Clean-sheet rate-0.03
Conceded 2+ rate-0.03
Conceded 3+ rate1.4%
Venue Conceded Mean0.13
Recent 10 Conceded Mean-0.30
Recent 10 Conceded Std-0.20
History Matches14
Result entropy-0.09
Goal Difference Std0.31
Stability score9.42
Recent 10 Result Entropy-0.24
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std0.23
Eligible Matches15
Lead Matches21
Lead Win Rate17.8%
Lead Points Retention0.14
Trailing Matches-6
Non-loss rate9.5%
Trailing Win Rate-0.17
Halftime Coverage Matches15
First Half Goals For Mean0.50
First Half Goals Against Mean-0.09
Second Half Goals For Mean0.20
Second Half Goals Against Mean0.12
Current Competition Matches-1
Current Competition PPG0.58
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean1.08
Competition Season Count7
Eligible Competition Season Count2
Portability PPG Std-0.20
Portability PPG Range-0.62
Portability Score14.39
Rest days8.78
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches6
Short Rest Points Per Match0.75
Normal Rest History Matches16
Normal Rest Points Per Match0.40
Long Rest History Matches-8
Long Rest Points Per Match0.54
Current Team ELO151.0
Current Opponent ELO-151.0
Current ELO Difference301.9
Expected score0.41
History Matches14
Residual Mean0.09
Overperformance7.15
Recent 10 Residual Mean0.09

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Lech Poznan

L
Siarka Tarnobrzeg1–0Lech Poznan28 Oct · away
Pick: Lech Poznan 54% · missed
W
Legia Warszawa1–2Lech Poznan25 Oct · away
Pick: Legia Warszawa 40% · missed
D
Lech Poznan1–1Sunderland22 Oct · home
Pick: Lech Poznan 58% · missed
W
Lech Poznan6–1Korona Kielce18 Oct · home
Pick: Lech Poznan 63% · hit
L
Lech Poznan0–4Bayer Leverkusen15 Oct · home
Pick: Lech Poznan 45% · missed

Zaglebie Lubin

W
Zaglebie Lubin1–0Korona Kielce2 Nov · home
Pick: Zaglebie Lubin 45% · hit
D
Motor Lublin2–2Zaglebie Lubin23 Oct · away
Pick: Zaglebie Lubin 38% · missed
W
Zaglebie Lubin1–0Jagiellonia18 Oct · home
Pick: Zaglebie Lubin 38% · hit
L
Siarka Tarnobrzeg3–2Zaglebie Lubin1 Sep · away
Pick: Zaglebie Lubin 44% · missed
D
Zaglebie Lubin0–0Pogon Szczecin29 Aug · home
Pick: Pogon Szczecin 41% · missed

About this match

Lech Poznan and Zaglebie Lubin meet in Ekstraklasa on Sunday 8 November 2026, kickoff 19:15 UTC. The match is played at Stadion Poznan. ScoreProb published its prediction on 2 Nov, 08:51 UTC: Lech Poznan win 61.1%, draw 21.4%, Zaglebie Lubin win 17.5%. The pick is Lech Poznan win. Over 2.5 goals: 61.1%. Both teams to score: 54.5%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.