ScoreProb
Feminine Division 1 France Round 8 2026

Lens W vs Lyon W

Lens W Home · Elo 1,427
Sat 7 Nov
UTC
Not started
Lyon W Away · Elo 1,717
Degouve-Brabant Stadium, Arras Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Lyon W win
Lens W win
15.7%
Draw
12.9%
Lyon W winPick
71.4%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Lineups · on the pitch, about an hour before kickoff
Live stats · shots, possession, corners, side by side
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes45.4%
No54.6%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.567.3%
Under 2.532.7%

How much we know

Lens W history22 matches
Lyon W history48 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 7 h ahead
    1 Nov · 08:41 UTC
  2. Re-published 11 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 4 Nov · 07:21 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    7 Nov · 16:00 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 70–79% band (71.4%). Picks in that band won 76.2% of the time, and the model said 73.9% on average, over 583 matches.

Why Lyon W are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • Lyon W are rated 290 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,717 against 1,427. On rating alone Lyon W would be expected to take 84% of the points on offer.

  • Lyon W score far more

    0.95 goals a game over 22 matches for Lens W, against 3.21 over 48 for Lyon W.

  • Lyon W concede fewer

    Lens W concede 2.18 a game, Lyon W 0.69.

  • Lyon W games more often go over 2.5 goals

    55% of Lens W matches, against 75% for Lyon W. The model puts this match at 67% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 30 May 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Lens W
Lyon W@include('fixtures.partials.crest', ['team' => $away, 'size' => 'sm', 'lazy' => true])
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1427.3
ELO
1717.3
22
ELO · Matches
48
1427.3
Current Team ELO
1717.3
1717.3
Current Opponent ELO
1427.3
-290.0
Current ELO Difference
290.0
0.16
Expected score
0.84
22
History Matches
48
-0.16
Residual Mean
0.23
41.56
Overperformance
66.21
-0.18
Recent 10 Residual Mean
0.05
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
0.60
PPG
2.40
0.80
Goals for per game
3.80
2.00
Goals against per game
1.20
20.0%
Win rate
80.0%
10
Matches
10
0.70
PPG
2.00
0.80
Goals for per game
2.80
1.90
Goals against per game
1.10
20.0%
Win rate
60.0%
0.80
Recent 10 Goals Mean
2.80
0.87
Recent 10 Goals Std
2.27
1.90
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.10
1.58
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.22
0.73
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.86
1.51
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
3.20
Overall performance9 signals
90
22
Matches
48
0.73
PPG
2.54
18.2%
Win rate
81.3%
18.2%
Draw rate
10.4%
63.6%
Loss rate
8.3%
72.7%
Over 1.5 rate
87.5%
54.5%
Over 2.5 rate
75.0%
31.8%
Over 3.5 rate
56.3%
1.91
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.43
Venue performance10 signals
100
11
Matches
22
0.91
PPG
2.23
27.3%
Win rate
68.2%
9.1%
Draw rate
18.2%
63.6%
Loss rate
13.6%
63.6%
Over 1.5 rate
86.4%
45.5%
Over 2.5 rate
63.6%
18.2%
Over 3.5 rate
40.9%
2.13
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.57
11
History Matches
22
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals for per gameScoring rateBTTS rate
0.95
Goals for per game
3.21
63.6%
Scoring rate
93.8%
54.5%
BTTS rate
39.6%
1.00
Goals for per game
2.77
63.6%
Scoring rate
86.4%
54.5%
BTTS rate
40.9%
22
History Matches
48
0.95
Goals Mean
3.21
0.88
Goals Std
2.01
63.6%
Scored 1+ rate
93.8%
27.3%
Scored 2+ rate
79.2%
4.5%
Scored 3+ rate
60.4%
1.00
Venue Goals Mean
2.77
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals against per gameConceding rate
2.18
Goals against per game
0.69
90.9%
Conceding rate
43.8%
2.00
Goals against per game
0.86
90.9%
Conceding rate
50.0%
22
History Matches
48
2.18
Conceded Mean
0.69
1.87
Conceded Std
1.00
54.5%
Conceded 2+ rate
14.6%
27.3%
Conceded 3+ rate
6.3%
2.00
Venue Conceded Mean
0.86
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Clean-sheet rateFailed-to-score rate
9.1%
Clean-sheet rate
56.3%
36.4%
Failed-to-score rate
6.3%
9.1%
Clean-sheet rate
50.0%
36.4%
Failed-to-score rate
13.6%
9.1%
Clean-sheet rate
56.3%
36.4%
Failed-to-score rate
6.3%
9.1%
Clean-sheet rate
50.0%
36.4%
Failed-to-score rate
13.6%
9.1%
Clean-sheet rate
56.3%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
22
History Matches
48
0.83
Result entropy
0.56
1.91
Goal Difference Std
2.43
17.39
Stability score
44.35
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
22
Eligible Matches
48
3
Lead Matches
37
66.7%
Lead Win Rate
91.9%
0.67
Lead Points Retention
0.94
11
Trailing Matches
4
27.3%
Non-loss rate
50.0%
0.0%
Trailing Win Rate
25.0%
Goal timing5 signals
50
22
Halftime Coverage Matches
48
0.55
First Half Goals For Mean
1.33
1.05
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.23
0.41
Second Half Goals For Mean
1.88
1.14
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.46
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
185.0
Rest days
161.9
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
1
Short Rest History Matches
4
0.00
Short Rest Points Per Match
2.25
6
Normal Rest History Matches
25
0.00
Normal Rest Points Per Match
2.40
14
Long Rest History Matches
18
1.07
Long Rest Points Per Match
2.78
Competition & season17 signals
170
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin rateDraw rateLoss rateOver 1.5 rateOver 2.5 rateOver 3.5 rateGoal difference · Standard deviationCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference Mean
0
Matches
0
0
Current Competition Matches
0
1
Competition Season Count
4
1
Eligible Competition Season Count
4
—
Portability PPG Std
0.33
—
Portability PPG Range
0.78
—
Portability Score
60.13
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
22
Clean History Matches
48
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scoreCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference MeanPortability PPG StdPortability PPG RangePortability Score
ELO-290.0
PPG-1.81
GF-2.25
GA1.49
PPG-1.32
PPG-1.80
PPG-1.30
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches-26
Clean-sheet rate-0.47
Failed-to-score rate30.1%
History Matches-11
Clean-sheet rate-0.41
Failed-to-score rate22.7%
History Matches-26
Goals Mean-2.25
Goals Std-1.13
Scored 1+ rate-0.30
Scored 2+ rate-0.52
Scored 3+ rate-0.56
Venue Goals Mean-1.77
Recent 10 Goals Mean-2.00
Recent 10 Goals Std-1.40
History Matches-26
Conceded Mean1.49
Conceded Std0.87
Clean-sheet rate-0.47
Conceded 2+ rate40.0%
Conceded 3+ rate21.0%
Venue Conceded Mean1.14
Recent 10 Conceded Mean0.80
Recent 10 Conceded Std0.36
History Matches-26
Result entropy0.27
Goal Difference Std-0.53
Stability score-26.96
Recent 10 Result Entropy-0.14
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std-1.68
Eligible Matches-26
Lead Matches-34
Lead Win Rate-0.25
Lead Points Retention-0.27
Trailing Matches7
Non-loss rate-0.23
Trailing Win Rate-0.25
Halftime Coverage Matches-26
First Half Goals For Mean-0.79
First Half Goals Against Mean0.82
Second Half Goals For Mean-1.47
Second Half Goals Against Mean0.68
Current Competition Matches0
Competition Season Count-3
Eligible Competition Season Count-3
Rest days23.17
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches-3
Short Rest Points Per Match-2.25
Normal Rest History Matches-19
Normal Rest Points Per Match-2.40
Long Rest History Matches-4
Long Rest Points Per Match-1.71
Current Team ELO-290.0
Current Opponent ELO290.0
Current ELO Difference-580.0
Expected score-0.68
History Matches-26
Residual Mean-0.39
Overperformance-24.65
Recent 10 Residual Mean-0.23

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Lens W

D
Le Havre W0–0Lens W24 Oct · away
Pick: Le Havre W 53% · missed
L
Lens W1–3Strasbourg W17 Oct · home
Pick: Strasbourg W 47% · hit
Earlier results appear as match history is added

Lyon W

W
Lyon W6–0Inter Milano W28 Oct · home
Pick: Lyon W 60% · hit
W
Lyon W5–0Marseille W24 Oct · home
Pick: Lyon W 72% · hit
Earlier results appear as match history is added

About this match

Lens W and Lyon W meet in Feminine Division 1 on Saturday 7 November 2026, kickoff 16:00 UTC. The match is played at Degouve-Brabant Stadium, Arras. ScoreProb published its prediction on 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC: Lens W win 15.7%, draw 12.9%, Lyon W win 71.4%. The pick is Lyon W win. Over 2.5 goals: 67.3%. Both teams to score: 45.4%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.