Paris FC W vs Montpellier W
Match result probability Model pick: Paris FC W win
Paris FC W winPick
63.9%
Draw
19.0%
Montpellier W win
17.1%
At kickoff this becomes the match centre
Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.
Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Lineups · on the pitch, about an hour before kickoff
Live stats · shots, possession, corners, side by side
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect
Both teams to score
Yes53.9%
No46.1%
Total goals · 2.5
Over 2.562.4%
Under 2.537.6%
How much we know
Paris FC W history44 matches
Montpellier W history30 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news
Your call
Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.
Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score
Match result: ours Paris FC W
Over / under 2.5: ours Over
Both teams to score: ours Yes
Life of this match
One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.
- Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 7 h ahead1 Nov · 08:41 UTC
- Re-published 11 more timesThe numbers did not changeLatest 4 Nov · 07:21 UTC
- Lineups appearAbout an hour before kickoff, where the competition provides them. This prediction does not use lineups.≈ 15:00 UTC
- KickoffThis page becomes the match centre7 Nov · 16:00 UTC
- Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
- Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC
How reliable are picks like this?
Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 60–69% band (63.9%). Picks in that band won 63.6% of the time, and the model said 64.3% on average, over 1,851 matches.
Why Paris FC W are the pick
Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.
-
Paris FC W are rated 167 Elo points higher
Elo 1,604 against 1,437. On rating alone Paris FC W would be expected to take 72% of the points on offer.
-
Paris FC W score more
1.66 goals a game over 44 matches for Paris FC W, against 1.37 over 30 for Montpellier W.
-
Paris FC W concede fewer
Paris FC W concede 1.11 a game, Montpellier W 1.90.
-
Montpellier W games more often go over 2.5 goals
57% of Paris FC W matches, against 73% for Montpellier W. The model puts this match at 62% for over 2.5.
These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.
Compare the two teams
Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.
Match history used: up to 30 May 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Montpellier W@include('fixtures.partials.crest', ['team' => $away, 'size' => 'sm', 'lazy' => true])
ELO & ratings10 signals 100
1604.4
ELO
1437.1
44
ELO · Matches
30
1604.4
Current Team ELO
1437.1
1437.1
Current Opponent ELO
1604.4
167.3
Current ELO Difference
-167.3
0.72
Expected score
0.28
44
History Matches
30
0.11
Residual Mean
-0.11
57.89
Overperformance
43.44
0.23
Recent 10 Residual Mean
-0.10
Recent form16 signals 160
5
Matches
5
2.40
PPG
1.20
2.20
Goals for per game
1.20
1.60
Goals against per game
1.80
80.0%
Win rate
40.0%
10
Matches
10
2.40
PPG
0.80
2.30
Goals for per game
1.10
1.10
Goals against per game
1.70
80.0%
Win rate
20.0%
2.30
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.10
1.73
Recent 10 Goals Std
0.70
1.10
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.70
1.51
Recent 10 Conceded Std
0.90
0.46
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.86
2.68
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.02
Overall performance9 signals 90
44
Matches
30
1.77
PPG
0.97
52.3%
Win rate
26.7%
20.5%
Draw rate
16.7%
27.3%
Loss rate
56.7%
79.5%
Over 1.5 rate
86.7%
56.8%
Over 2.5 rate
73.3%
29.5%
Over 3.5 rate
40.0%
2.47
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.54
Venue performance10 signals 100
21
Matches
16
2.05
PPG
0.75
61.9%
Win rate
18.8%
19.0%
Draw rate
18.8%
19.0%
Loss rate
62.5%
81.0%
Over 1.5 rate
93.8%
61.9%
Over 2.5 rate
93.8%
33.3%
Over 3.5 rate
56.3%
2.07
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.26
21
History Matches
16
Scoring & attack16 signals 160
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals for per gameScoring rateBTTS rate
1.66
Goals for per game
1.37
65.9%
Scoring rate
86.7%
29.5%
BTTS rate
73.3%
2.14
Goals for per game
1.56
76.2%
Scoring rate
93.8%
38.1%
BTTS rate
93.8%
44
History Matches
30
1.66
Goals Mean
1.37
1.58
Goals Std
0.87
65.9%
Scored 1+ rate
86.7%
54.5%
Scored 2+ rate
40.0%
25.0%
Scored 3+ rate
6.7%
2.14
Venue Goals Mean
1.56
Defense & conceding12 signals 120
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals against per gameConceding rate
1.11
Goals against per game
1.90
50.0%
Conceding rate
83.3%
0.86
Goals against per game
2.25
47.6%
Conceding rate
100.0%
44
History Matches
30
1.11
Conceded Mean
1.90
1.46
Conceded Std
1.25
31.8%
Conceded 2+ rate
66.7%
15.9%
Conceded 3+ rate
26.7%
0.86
Venue Conceded Mean
2.25
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals 110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Clean-sheet rateFailed-to-score rate
50.0%
Clean-sheet rate
16.7%
34.1%
Failed-to-score rate
13.3%
52.4%
Clean-sheet rate
0.0%
23.8%
Failed-to-score rate
6.3%
50.0%
Clean-sheet rate
16.7%
34.1%
Failed-to-score rate
13.3%
52.4%
Clean-sheet rate
0.0%
23.8%
Failed-to-score rate
6.3%
50.0%
Clean-sheet rate
16.7%
Volatility & stability4 signals 40
44
History Matches
30
0.93
Result entropy
0.89
2.47
Goal Difference Std
1.54
7.33
Stability score
11.44
Halftime resilience7 signals 70
44
Eligible Matches
30
16
Lead Matches
5
87.5%
Lead Win Rate
60.0%
0.92
Lead Points Retention
0.60
11
Trailing Matches
12
27.3%
Non-loss rate
16.7%
18.2%
Trailing Win Rate
0.0%
Goal timing5 signals 50
44
Halftime Coverage Matches
30
0.64
First Half Goals For Mean
0.47
0.55
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.90
1.02
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.90
0.57
Second Half Goals Against Mean
1.00
Rest & schedule9 signals 90
161.9
Rest days
185.0
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
5
Short Rest History Matches
1
2.20
Short Rest Points Per Match
1.00
16
Normal Rest History Matches
9
1.38
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.56
22
Long Rest History Matches
19
1.91
Long Rest Points Per Match
0.74
Competition & season17 signals 170
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin rateDraw rateLoss rateOver 1.5 rateOver 2.5 rateOver 3.5 rateGoal difference · Standard deviationCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference Mean
0
Matches
0
0
Current Competition Matches
0
3
Competition Season Count
2
3
Eligible Competition Season Count
2
0.39
Portability PPG Std
0.53
0.93
Portability PPG Range
1.07
56.48
Portability Score
48.35
Odds & market11 signals 110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal 10
44
Clean History Matches
30
Matchup differences86 signals 086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scoreCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference Mean
ELO167.3
PPG0.81
GF0.29
GA-0.79
PPG1.30
PPG1.20
PPG1.60
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches14
Clean-sheet rate33.3%
Failed-to-score rate20.8%
History Matches5
Clean-sheet rate52.4%
Failed-to-score rate17.6%
History Matches14
Goals Mean0.29
Goals Std0.71
Scored 1+ rate-0.21
Scored 2+ rate14.5%
Scored 3+ rate18.3%
Venue Goals Mean0.58
Recent 10 Goals Mean1.20
Recent 10 Goals Std1.03
History Matches14
Conceded Mean-0.79
Conceded Std0.22
Clean-sheet rate33.3%
Conceded 2+ rate-0.35
Conceded 3+ rate-0.11
Venue Conceded Mean-1.39
Recent 10 Conceded Mean-0.60
Recent 10 Conceded Std0.61
History Matches14
Result entropy0.04
Goal Difference Std0.93
Stability score-4.10
Recent 10 Result Entropy-0.41
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std1.66
Eligible Matches14
Lead Matches11
Lead Win Rate27.5%
Lead Points Retention0.32
Trailing Matches-1
Non-loss rate10.6%
Trailing Win Rate18.2%
Halftime Coverage Matches14
First Half Goals For Mean0.17
First Half Goals Against Mean-0.35
Second Half Goals For Mean0.12
Second Half Goals Against Mean-0.43
Current Competition Matches0
Competition Season Count1
Eligible Competition Season Count1
Portability PPG Std-0.15
Portability PPG Range-0.14
Portability Score8.13
Rest days-23.17
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches4
Short Rest Points Per Match1.20
Normal Rest History Matches7
Normal Rest Points Per Match-0.18
Long Rest History Matches3
Long Rest Points Per Match1.17
Current Team ELO167.3
Current Opponent ELO-167.3
Current ELO Difference334.7
Expected score0.45
History Matches14
Residual Mean0.22
Overperformance14.44
Recent 10 Residual Mean0.34
Latest results, with our pick
Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.
Paris FC W
D
Paris FC W1–1Paris Saint Germain W1 Nov · home
Pick: Paris FC W 42% · missed D
Paris FC W1–1Häcken W29 Oct · home
Pick: Häcken W 53% · missed W
Toulouse W0–4Paris FC W17 Oct · away
Pick: Paris FC W 34% · hit Earlier results appear as match history is added
Montpellier W
L
Paris Saint Germain W1–0Montpellier W23 Oct · away
Pick: Paris Saint Germain W 71% · hit D
Montpellier W1–1Le Havre W17 Oct · home
Pick: Le Havre W 41% · missed Earlier results appear as match history is added
About this match
Paris FC W and Montpellier W meet in Feminine Division 1 on Saturday 7 November 2026, kickoff 16:00 UTC. The match is played at Stade Jean-Bouin, Paris. ScoreProb published its prediction on 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC: Paris FC W win 63.9%, draw 19.0%, Montpellier W win 17.1%. The pick is Paris FC W win. Over 2.5 goals: 62.4%. Both teams to score: 53.9%.
Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.