ScoreProb
Feminine Division 1 France Round 8 2026

Paris Saint Germain W vs Le Havre W

Paris Saint Germain W Home · Elo 1,623
Sat 7 Nov
UTC
Not started
Le Havre W Away · Elo 1,445
Stade Georges Lefevre, Paris Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Paris Saint Germain W win
Paris Saint Germain W winPick
73.9%
Draw
12.8%
Le Havre W win
13.3%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Lineups · on the pitch, about an hour before kickoff
Live stats · shots, possession, corners, side by side
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes52.1%
No47.9%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.568.7%
Under 2.531.3%

How much we know

Paris Saint Germain W history40 matches
Le Havre W history31 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 7 h ahead
    1 Nov · 08:41 UTC
  2. Re-published 11 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 4 Nov · 07:21 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    7 Nov · 16:00 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 70–79% band (73.9%). Picks in that band won 76.2% of the time, and the model said 73.9% on average, over 583 matches.

Why Paris Saint Germain W are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • Paris Saint Germain W are rated 178 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,623 against 1,445. On rating alone Paris Saint Germain W would be expected to take 74% of the points on offer.

  • Paris Saint Germain W score far more

    2.20 goals a game over 40 matches for Paris Saint Germain W, against 1.03 over 31 for Le Havre W.

  • Paris Saint Germain W concede fewer

    Paris Saint Germain W concede 1.00 a game, Le Havre W 1.90.

  • Both teams play a similar number of high-scoring games

    63% of Paris Saint Germain W matches, against 61% for Le Havre W. The model puts this match at 69% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 17 May 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Paris Saint Germain W
Le Havre W@include('fixtures.partials.crest', ['team' => $away, 'size' => 'sm', 'lazy' => true])
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1622.8
ELO
1444.8
40
ELO · Matches
31
1622.8
Current Team ELO
1444.8
1444.8
Current Opponent ELO
1622.8
178.1
Current ELO Difference
-178.1
0.74
Expected score
0.26
40
History Matches
31
0.15
Residual Mean
-0.09
60.02
Overperformance
44.46
0.18
Recent 10 Residual Mean
-0.06
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
2.40
PPG
1.00
1.60
Goals for per game
1.80
0.40
Goals against per game
2.00
80.0%
Win rate
20.0%
10
Matches
10
2.40
PPG
0.90
1.90
Goals for per game
1.20
0.60
Goals against per game
2.30
80.0%
Win rate
20.0%
1.90
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.20
1.04
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.17
0.60
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
2.30
0.66
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.10
0.46
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.94
1.35
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.81
Overall performance9 signals
90
40
Matches
31
2.05
PPG
0.94
62.5%
Win rate
19.4%
17.5%
Draw rate
35.5%
20.0%
Loss rate
45.2%
77.5%
Over 1.5 rate
83.9%
62.5%
Over 2.5 rate
61.3%
40.0%
Over 3.5 rate
32.3%
2.40
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.79
Venue performance10 signals
100
20
Matches
16
2.15
PPG
1.00
65.0%
Win rate
25.0%
20.0%
Draw rate
25.0%
15.0%
Loss rate
50.0%
70.0%
Over 1.5 rate
93.8%
55.0%
Over 2.5 rate
62.5%
35.0%
Over 3.5 rate
12.5%
2.13
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.32
20
History Matches
16
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals for per gameScoring rateBTTS rate
2.20
Goals for per game
1.03
82.5%
Scoring rate
58.1%
42.5%
BTTS rate
58.1%
2.25
Goals for per game
1.06
80.0%
Scoring rate
68.8%
30.0%
BTTS rate
68.8%
40
History Matches
31
2.20
Goals Mean
1.03
1.78
Goals Std
1.03
82.5%
Scored 1+ rate
58.1%
57.5%
Scored 2+ rate
35.5%
35.0%
Scored 3+ rate
9.7%
2.25
Venue Goals Mean
1.06
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals against per gameConceding rate
1.00
Goals against per game
1.90
52.5%
Conceding rate
93.5%
0.60
Goals against per game
1.69
35.0%
Conceding rate
100.0%
40
History Matches
31
1.00
Conceded Mean
1.90
1.30
Conceded Std
1.33
27.5%
Conceded 2+ rate
58.1%
10.0%
Conceded 3+ rate
19.4%
0.60
Venue Conceded Mean
1.69
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Clean-sheet rateFailed-to-score rate
47.5%
Clean-sheet rate
6.5%
17.5%
Failed-to-score rate
41.9%
65.0%
Clean-sheet rate
0.0%
20.0%
Failed-to-score rate
31.3%
47.5%
Clean-sheet rate
6.5%
17.5%
Failed-to-score rate
41.9%
65.0%
Clean-sheet rate
0.0%
20.0%
Failed-to-score rate
31.3%
47.5%
Clean-sheet rate
6.5%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
40
History Matches
31
0.84
Result entropy
0.95
2.40
Goal Difference Std
1.79
16.20
Stability score
4.93
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
40
Eligible Matches
31
18
Lead Matches
7
94.4%
Lead Win Rate
57.1%
0.96
Lead Points Retention
0.62
6
Trailing Matches
13
16.7%
Non-loss rate
30.8%
0.0%
Trailing Win Rate
7.7%
Goal timing5 signals
50
40
Halftime Coverage Matches
31
1.00
First Half Goals For Mean
0.61
0.38
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.90
1.20
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.42
0.63
Second Half Goals Against Mean
1.00
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
174.9
Rest days
185.0
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
4
Short Rest History Matches
0
2.00
Short Rest Points Per Match
—
13
Normal Rest History Matches
8
1.77
Normal Rest Points Per Match
0.50
22
Long Rest History Matches
22
2.18
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.09
Competition & season17 signals
170
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin rateDraw rateLoss rateOver 1.5 rateOver 2.5 rateOver 3.5 rateGoal difference · Standard deviationCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference Mean
0
Matches
0
0
Current Competition Matches
0
3
Competition Season Count
2
3
Eligible Competition Season Count
2
0.95
Portability PPG Std
0.20
2.03
Portability PPG Range
0.40
34.40
Portability Score
71.22
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
40
Clean History Matches
31
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scoreCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference MeanShort Rest Points Per Match
ELO178.1
PPG1.11
GF1.17
GA-0.90
PPG1.15
PPG1.40
PPG1.50
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches9
Clean-sheet rate41.0%
Failed-to-score rate-0.24
History Matches4
Clean-sheet rate65.0%
Failed-to-score rate-0.11
History Matches9
Goals Mean1.17
Goals Std0.75
Scored 1+ rate24.4%
Scored 2+ rate22.0%
Scored 3+ rate25.3%
Venue Goals Mean1.19
Recent 10 Goals Mean0.70
Recent 10 Goals Std-0.12
History Matches9
Conceded Mean-0.90
Conceded Std-0.02
Clean-sheet rate41.0%
Conceded 2+ rate-0.31
Conceded 3+ rate-0.09
Venue Conceded Mean-1.09
Recent 10 Conceded Mean-1.70
Recent 10 Conceded Std-0.44
History Matches9
Result entropy-0.11
Goal Difference Std0.61
Stability score11.27
Recent 10 Result Entropy-0.48
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std-0.47
Eligible Matches9
Lead Matches11
Lead Win Rate37.3%
Lead Points Retention0.34
Trailing Matches-7
Non-loss rate-0.14
Trailing Win Rate-0.08
Halftime Coverage Matches9
First Half Goals For Mean0.39
First Half Goals Against Mean-0.53
Second Half Goals For Mean0.78
Second Half Goals Against Mean-0.38
Current Competition Matches0
Competition Season Count1
Eligible Competition Season Count1
Portability PPG Std0.75
Portability PPG Range1.63
Portability Score-36.82
Rest days-10.17
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches4
Normal Rest History Matches5
Normal Rest Points Per Match1.27
Long Rest History Matches0
Long Rest Points Per Match1.09
Current Team ELO178.1
Current Opponent ELO-178.1
Current ELO Difference356.1
Expected score0.47
History Matches9
Residual Mean0.24
Overperformance15.56
Recent 10 Residual Mean0.24

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Paris Saint Germain W

D
Paris FC W1–1Paris Saint Germain W1 Nov · away
Pick: Paris FC W 42% · missed
D
Manchester City W1–1Paris Saint Germain W29 Oct · away
Pick: Manchester City W 56% · missed
W
Paris Saint Germain W1–0Montpellier W23 Oct · home
Pick: Paris Saint Germain W 71% · hit
W
FC Fleury 91 W1–3Paris Saint Germain W4 Oct · away
Pick: Paris Saint Germain W 45% · hit
D
Eintracht Frankfurt W1–1Paris Saint Germain W26 Aug · away
Pick: Eintracht Frankfurt W 62% · missed

Le Havre W

D
Le Havre W0–0Lens W24 Oct · home
Pick: Le Havre W 53% · missed
D
Montpellier W1–1Le Havre W17 Oct · away
Pick: Le Havre W 41% · missed
Earlier results appear as match history is added

About this match

Paris Saint Germain W and Le Havre W meet in Feminine Division 1 on Saturday 7 November 2026, kickoff 16:00 UTC. The match is played at Stade Georges Lefevre, Paris. ScoreProb published its prediction on 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC: Paris Saint Germain W win 73.9%, draw 12.8%, Le Havre W win 13.3%. The pick is Paris Saint Germain W win. Over 2.5 goals: 68.7%. Both teams to score: 52.1%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.