Lierse K. U21 vs RFC de Liege U21
Match result probability Model pick: Lierse K. U21 win
Lierse K. U21 winPick
51.9%
Draw
15.9%
RFC de Liege U21 win
32.2%
At kickoff this becomes the match centre
Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.
Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Lineups · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Live stats · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect
Both teams to score
Yes57.0%
No43.0%
Total goals · 2.5
Over 2.573.1%
Under 2.526.9%
How much we know
Lierse K. U21 history33 matches
RFC de Liege U21 history34 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news
Your call
Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.
Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score
Match result: ours Lierse K. U21
Over / under 2.5: ours Over
Both teams to score: ours Yes
Life of this match
One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.
- Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 10 h ahead31 Oct · 08:40 UTC
- Re-published 15 more timesThe numbers did not changeLatest 4 Nov · 06:57 UTC
- Lineups appearAbout an hour before kickoff, where the competition provides them. This prediction does not use lineups.≈ 18:00 UTC
- KickoffThis page becomes the match centre6 Nov · 19:00 UTC
- Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
- Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC
How reliable are picks like this?
Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 50–59% band (51.9%). Picks in that band won 55.8% of the time, and the model said 54.4% on average, over 3,719 matches.
Why Lierse K. U21 are the pick
Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.
-
Lierse K. U21 are rated 129 Elo points higher
Elo 1,478 against 1,349. On rating alone Lierse K. U21 would be expected to take 68% of the points on offer.
-
Lierse K. U21 score more
1.58 goals a game over 33 matches for Lierse K. U21, against 1.29 over 34 for RFC de Liege U21.
-
Lierse K. U21 concede fewer
Lierse K. U21 concede 1.91 a game, RFC de Liege U21 3.47.
-
RFC de Liege U21 games more often go over 2.5 goals
67% of Lierse K. U21 matches, against 94% for RFC de Liege U21. The model puts this match at 73% for over 2.5.
These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.
Compare the two teams
Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.
Match history used: up to 15 May 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
RFC de Liege U21@include('fixtures.partials.crest', ['team' => $away, 'size' => 'sm', 'lazy' => true])
ELO & ratings10 signals 100
1478.1
ELO
1348.7
33
ELO · Matches
34
1478.1
Current Team ELO
1348.7
1348.7
Current Opponent ELO
1478.1
129.5
Current ELO Difference
-129.5
0.68
Expected score
0.32
33
History Matches
34
-0.03
Residual Mean
-0.23
47.84
Overperformance
35.81
-0.12
Recent 10 Residual Mean
-0.31
Recent form16 signals 160
5
Matches
5
0.80
PPG
0.00
1.40
Goals for per game
0.20
1.80
Goals against per game
4.20
20.0%
Win rate
0.0%
10
Matches
10
1.00
PPG
0.00
1.30
Goals for per game
0.70
2.00
Goals against per game
3.70
30.0%
Win rate
0.0%
1.30
Recent 10 Goals Mean
0.70
0.78
Recent 10 Goals Std
0.90
2.00
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
3.70
1.84
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.55
0.82
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.00
2.00
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.90
Overall performance9 signals 90
33
Matches
34
1.24
PPG
0.56
36.4%
Win rate
17.6%
15.2%
Draw rate
2.9%
48.5%
Loss rate
79.4%
81.8%
Over 1.5 rate
100.0%
66.7%
Over 2.5 rate
94.1%
45.5%
Over 3.5 rate
64.7%
2.41
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.77
Venue performance10 signals 100
16
Matches
18
1.00
PPG
0.50
31.3%
Win rate
16.7%
6.3%
Draw rate
0.0%
62.5%
Loss rate
83.3%
75.0%
Over 1.5 rate
100.0%
68.8%
Over 2.5 rate
100.0%
43.8%
Over 3.5 rate
66.7%
2.51
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.91
16
History Matches
18
Scoring & attack16 signals 160
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals for per gameScoring rateBTTS rate
1.58
Goals for per game
1.29
72.7%
Scoring rate
67.6%
54.5%
BTTS rate
61.8%
1.19
Goals for per game
1.22
56.3%
Scoring rate
61.1%
37.5%
BTTS rate
55.6%
33
History Matches
34
1.58
Goals Mean
1.29
1.54
Goals Std
1.15
72.7%
Scored 1+ rate
67.6%
42.4%
Scored 2+ rate
41.2%
21.2%
Scored 3+ rate
17.6%
1.19
Venue Goals Mean
1.22
Defense & conceding12 signals 120
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals against per gameConceding rate
1.91
Goals against per game
3.47
75.8%
Conceding rate
94.1%
2.00
Goals against per game
3.72
75.0%
Conceding rate
94.4%
33
History Matches
34
1.91
Conceded Mean
3.47
1.60
Conceded Std
2.16
54.5%
Conceded 2+ rate
82.4%
33.3%
Conceded 3+ rate
67.6%
2.00
Venue Conceded Mean
3.72
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals 110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Clean-sheet rateFailed-to-score rate
24.2%
Clean-sheet rate
5.9%
27.3%
Failed-to-score rate
32.4%
25.0%
Clean-sheet rate
5.6%
43.8%
Failed-to-score rate
38.9%
24.2%
Clean-sheet rate
5.9%
27.3%
Failed-to-score rate
32.4%
25.0%
Clean-sheet rate
5.6%
43.8%
Failed-to-score rate
38.9%
24.2%
Clean-sheet rate
5.9%
Volatility & stability4 signals 40
33
History Matches
34
0.91
Result entropy
0.54
2.41
Goal Difference Std
2.77
8.54
Stability score
46.03
Halftime resilience7 signals 70
33
Eligible Matches
34
8
Lead Matches
10
75.0%
Lead Win Rate
60.0%
0.75
Lead Points Retention
0.63
14
Trailing Matches
21
14.3%
Non-loss rate
0.0%
7.1%
Trailing Win Rate
0.0%
Goal timing5 signals 50
33
Halftime Coverage Matches
34
0.48
First Half Goals For Mean
0.71
0.88
First Half Goals Against Mean
1.56
1.09
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.59
1.03
Second Half Goals Against Mean
1.91
Rest & schedule9 signals 90
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Short Rest Points Per Match
175.0
Rest days
175.0
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
0
Short Rest History Matches
0
15
Normal Rest History Matches
17
1.13
Normal Rest Points Per Match
0.71
17
Long Rest History Matches
16
1.35
Long Rest Points Per Match
0.44
Competition & season17 signals 170
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin rateDraw rateLoss rateOver 1.5 rateOver 2.5 rateOver 3.5 rateGoal difference · Standard deviationCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference Mean
0
Matches
0
0
Current Competition Matches
0
2
Competition Season Count
2
2
Eligible Competition Season Count
2
0.06
Portability PPG Std
0.31
0.13
Portability PPG Range
0.63
88.89
Portability Score
61.54
Odds & market11 signals 110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal 10
33
Clean History Matches
34
Matchup differences86 signals 086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scoreCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference MeanShort Rest Points Per Match
ELO129.5
PPG0.68
GF0.28
GA-1.56
PPG0.50
PPG0.80
PPG1.00
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches-1
Clean-sheet rate18.4%
Failed-to-score rate-0.05
History Matches-2
Clean-sheet rate19.4%
Failed-to-score rate4.9%
History Matches-1
Goals Mean0.28
Goals Std0.39
Scored 1+ rate5.1%
Scored 2+ rate1.2%
Scored 3+ rate3.6%
Venue Goals Mean-0.03
Recent 10 Goals Mean0.60
Recent 10 Goals Std-0.12
History Matches-1
Conceded Mean-1.56
Conceded Std-0.56
Clean-sheet rate18.4%
Conceded 2+ rate-0.28
Conceded 3+ rate-0.34
Venue Conceded Mean-1.72
Recent 10 Conceded Mean-1.70
Recent 10 Conceded Std0.29
History Matches-1
Result entropy0.37
Goal Difference Std-0.36
Stability score-37.49
Recent 10 Result Entropy0.82
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std0.11
Eligible Matches-1
Lead Matches-2
Lead Win Rate15.0%
Lead Points Retention0.12
Trailing Matches-7
Non-loss rate14.3%
Trailing Win Rate7.1%
Halftime Coverage Matches-1
First Half Goals For Mean-0.22
First Half Goals Against Mean-0.68
Second Half Goals For Mean0.50
Second Half Goals Against Mean-0.88
Current Competition Matches0
Competition Season Count0
Eligible Competition Season Count0
Portability PPG Std-0.25
Portability PPG Range-0.50
Portability Score27.35
Rest days0.00
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches0
Normal Rest History Matches-2
Normal Rest Points Per Match0.43
Long Rest History Matches1
Long Rest Points Per Match0.92
Current Team ELO129.5
Current Opponent ELO-129.5
Current ELO Difference259.0
Expected score0.36
History Matches-1
Residual Mean0.19
Overperformance12.03
Recent 10 Residual Mean0.20
Latest results, with our pick
Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.
Lierse K. U21
W
RAAL La Louviere U211–4Lierse K. U2130 Oct · away
Pick: RAAL La Louviere U21 40% · missed W
Sp. Hasselt U213–6Lierse K. U2123 Oct · away
Pick: Sp. Hasselt U21 39% · missed W
K. Beerschot V.A. Reserve U211–3Lierse K. U2116 Oct · away
Pick: Lierse K. U21 49% · hit Earlier results appear as match history is added
RFC de Liege U21
W
RFC de Liege U212–1K. Beerschot V.A. Reserve U2123 Oct · home
Pick: K. Beerschot V.A. Reserve U21 47% · missed Earlier results appear as match history is added
About this match
Lierse K. U21 and RFC de Liege U21 meet in Reserve Pro League on Friday 6 November 2026, kickoff 19:00 UTC. ScoreProb published its prediction on 31 Oct, 08:40 UTC: Lierse K. U21 win 51.9%, draw 15.9%, RFC de Liege U21 win 32.2%. The pick is Lierse K. U21 win. Over 2.5 goals: 73.1%. Both teams to score: 57.0%.
Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.