ScoreProb
3. SNL - West Slovenia West - 11 2026

Litija vs Tolmin

Litija Home · Elo 1,482
Wed 4 Nov
UTC
Not started
Tolmin Away · Elo 1,520
Venue to be confirmed Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 29 Oct, 08:38 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Tolmin win
Litija win
14.8%
Draw
16.4%
Tolmin winPick
68.8%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Lineups · on the pitch, about an hour before kickoff
Live score and events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Live stats · not provided for this competition by our data source
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes46.8%
No53.2%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.565.1%
Under 2.534.9%

How much we know

Litija history2 matches
Tolmin history34 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 4 h ahead
    29 Oct · 08:38 UTC
  2. Re-published 16 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 2 Nov · 18:58 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    4 Nov · 13:00 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 60–69% band (68.8%). Picks in that band won 63.6% of the time, and the model said 64.3% on average, over 1,851 matches.

Why Tolmin are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • Tolmin are rated 38 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,520 against 1,482. On rating alone Tolmin would be expected to take 55% of the points on offer.

  • Tolmin score far more

    0.50 goals a game over 2 matches for Litija, against 1.56 over 34 for Tolmin.

  • Tolmin concede fewer

    Litija concede 3.00 a game, Tolmin 1.74.

  • Litija games more often go over 2.5 goals

    100% of Litija matches, against 62% for Tolmin. The model puts this match at 65% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 23 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Litija
Tolmin
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1481.9
ELO
1520.2
2
ELO · Matches
34
1481.9
Current Team ELO
1520.2
1520.2
Current Opponent ELO
1481.9
-38.28
Current ELO Difference
38.28
0.45
Expected score
0.55
2
History Matches
34
-0.45
Residual Mean
0.03
45.90
Overperformance
51.93
-0.45
Recent 10 Residual Mean
0.26
Recent form16 signals
160
2
Matches
5
0.00
PPG
1.80
0.50
Goals for per game
2.00
3.00
Goals against per game
0.80
0.0%
Win rate
40.0%
2
Matches
10
0.00
PPG
2.10
0.50
Goals for per game
2.50
3.00
Goals against per game
1.10
0.0%
Win rate
60.0%
0.50
Recent 10 Goals Mean
2.50
0.50
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.43
3.00
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.10
1.00
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.14
0.00
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.82
1.50
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.91
Overall performance9 signals
90
2
Matches
34
0.00
PPG
1.41
0.0%
Win rate
41.2%
0.0%
Draw rate
17.6%
100.0%
Loss rate
41.2%
100.0%
Over 1.5 rate
82.4%
100.0%
Over 2.5 rate
61.8%
50.0%
Over 3.5 rate
41.2%
1.50
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.42
Venue performance10 signals
100
1
Matches
17
0.00
PPG
1.41
0.0%
Win rate
41.2%
0.0%
Draw rate
17.6%
100.0%
Loss rate
41.2%
100.0%
Over 1.5 rate
88.2%
100.0%
Over 2.5 rate
70.6%
0.0%
Over 3.5 rate
41.2%
—
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.22
1
History Matches
17
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
0.50
Goals for per game
1.56
50.0%
Scoring rate
64.7%
50.0%
BTTS rate
47.1%
1.00
Goals for per game
1.53
100.0%
Scoring rate
70.6%
100.0%
BTTS rate
58.8%
0.50
Goals for per game
2.00
50.0%
Scoring rate
100.0%
50.0%
BTTS rate
100.0%
2
History Matches
34
0.50
Goals Mean
1.56
0.50
Goals Std
1.50
50.0%
Scored 1+ rate
64.7%
0.0%
Scored 2+ rate
47.1%
0.0%
Scored 3+ rate
29.4%
1.00
Venue Goals Mean
1.53
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
3.00
Goals against per game
1.74
100.0%
Conceding rate
79.4%
2.00
Goals against per game
1.82
100.0%
Conceding rate
88.2%
3.00
Goals against per game
2.00
100.0%
Conceding rate
100.0%
2
History Matches
34
3.00
Conceded Mean
1.74
1.00
Conceded Std
1.54
100.0%
Conceded 2+ rate
44.1%
50.0%
Conceded 3+ rate
23.5%
2.00
Venue Conceded Mean
1.82
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
0.0%
Clean-sheet rate
20.6%
50.0%
Failed-to-score rate
35.3%
0.0%
Clean-sheet rate
11.8%
0.0%
Failed-to-score rate
29.4%
0.0%
Clean-sheet rate
0.0%
50.0%
Failed-to-score rate
0.0%
0.0%
Clean-sheet rate
20.6%
50.0%
Failed-to-score rate
35.3%
0.0%
Clean-sheet rate
11.8%
0.0%
Failed-to-score rate
29.4%
0.0%
Clean-sheet rate
20.6%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
2
History Matches
34
0.00
Result entropy
0.94
1.50
Goal Difference Std
2.42
100.0
Stability score
5.62
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
2
Eligible Matches
33
0
Lead Matches
11
—
Lead Win Rate
81.8%
—
Lead Points Retention
0.85
2
Trailing Matches
10
0.0%
Non-loss rate
30.0%
0.0%
Trailing Win Rate
0.0%
Goal timing5 signals
50
2
Halftime Coverage Matches
33
0.00
First Half Goals For Mean
0.70
1.50
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.76
0.50
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.91
1.50
Second Half Goals Against Mean
1.00
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Short Rest Points Per Match
73.90
Rest days
73.90
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
0
Short Rest History Matches
0
1
Normal Rest History Matches
22
0.00
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.50
0
Long Rest History Matches
11
—
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.09
Competition & season17 signals
170
2
Matches
2
0.00
PPG
1.00
0.0%
Win rate
0.0%
0.0%
Draw rate
100.0%
100.0%
Loss rate
0.0%
100.0%
Over 1.5 rate
100.0%
100.0%
Over 2.5 rate
50.0%
50.0%
Over 3.5 rate
50.0%
1.50
Goal difference · Standard deviation
0.00
2
Current Competition Matches
2
0.00
Current Competition PPG
1.00
-2.50
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
0.00
1
Competition Season Count
3
0
Eligible Competition Season Count
2
—
Portability PPG Std
0.58
—
Portability PPG Range
1.16
—
Portability Score
46.32
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
2
Clean History Matches
34
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scoreLead Win RateLead Points RetentionPortability PPG StdPortability PPG RangePortability ScoreShort Rest Points Per MatchLong Rest Points Per Match
ELO-38.28
PPG-1.41
GF-1.06
GA1.26
PPG-1.00
PPG-1.41
PPG-1.80
PPG-2.10
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches-32
Clean-sheet rate-0.21
Failed-to-score rate14.7%
History Matches-16
Clean-sheet rate-0.12
Failed-to-score rate-0.29
History Matches-32
Goals Mean-1.06
Goals Std-1.00
Scored 1+ rate-0.15
Scored 2+ rate-0.47
Scored 3+ rate-0.29
Venue Goals Mean-0.53
Recent 10 Goals Mean-2.00
Recent 10 Goals Std-0.93
History Matches-32
Conceded Mean1.26
Conceded Std-0.54
Clean-sheet rate-0.21
Conceded 2+ rate55.9%
Conceded 3+ rate26.5%
Venue Conceded Mean0.18
Recent 10 Conceded Mean1.90
Recent 10 Conceded Std-0.14
History Matches-32
Result entropy-0.94
Goal Difference Std-0.92
Stability score94.38
Recent 10 Result Entropy-0.82
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std-0.41
Eligible Matches-31
Lead Matches-11
Trailing Matches-8
Non-loss rate-0.30
Trailing Win Rate0.0%
Halftime Coverage Matches-31
First Half Goals For Mean-0.70
First Half Goals Against Mean0.74
Second Half Goals For Mean-0.41
Second Half Goals Against Mean0.50
Current Competition Matches0
Current Competition PPG-1.00
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean-2.50
Competition Season Count-2
Eligible Competition Season Count-2
Rest days0.00
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches0
Normal Rest History Matches-21
Normal Rest Points Per Match-1.50
Long Rest History Matches-11
Current Team ELO-38.28
Current Opponent ELO38.28
Current ELO Difference-76.56
Expected score-0.11
History Matches-32
Residual Mean-0.48
Overperformance-6.02
Recent 10 Residual Mean-0.71

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Litija

W
Škofja Loka1–3Litija31 Oct · away
Pick: Škofja Loka 67% · missed
L
Litija0–1Svoboda24 Oct · home
Pick: Svoboda 52% · hit
W
Litija7–0Šencur17 Oct · home
Pick: Šencur 73% · missed
W
Vipava0–4Litija4 Oct · away
Pick: Vipava 52% · missed
W
Svoboda0–3Litija30 Aug · away
Pick: Svoboda 68% · missed

Tolmin

W
Tolmin4–2Adria31 Oct · home
Pick: Tolmin 65% · hit
W
Grad0–3Tolmin24 Oct · away
Pick: Tolmin 45% · hit
L
Tolmin0–1Šobec Lesce17 Oct · home
Pick: Tolmin 51% · missed
W
Tolmin1–0IB 1975 Ljubljana29 Aug · home
Pick: Tolmin 64% · hit
Earlier results appear as match history is added

About this match

Litija and Tolmin meet in 3. SNL - West on Wednesday 4 November 2026, kickoff 13:00 UTC. ScoreProb published its prediction on 29 Oct, 08:38 UTC: Litija win 14.8%, draw 16.4%, Tolmin win 68.8%. The pick is Tolmin win. Over 2.5 goals: 65.1%. Both teams to score: 46.8%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.