ScoreProb
I Liga Poland Round 14 2026

ŁKS Łódź vs Stal Rzeszów

ŁKS Łódź Home · Elo 1,563
Sun 8 Nov
UTC
Not started
Stal Rzeszów Away · Elo 1,407
Venue to be confirmed Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 2 Nov, 08:51 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: ŁKS Łódź win
ŁKS Łódź winPick
61.4%
Draw
18.9%
Stal Rzeszów win
19.8%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Lineups · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Live stats · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes55.2%
No44.8%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.565.7%
Under 2.534.3%

How much we know

ŁKS Łódź history67 matches
Stal Rzeszów history74 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 4 h ahead
    2 Nov · 08:51 UTC
  2. Re-published 2 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 2 Nov · 20:35 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    8 Nov · 13:30 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 60–69% band (61.4%). Picks in that band won 63.6% of the time, and the model said 64.3% on average, over 1,851 matches.

Why ŁKS Łódź are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • ŁKS Łódź are rated 156 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,563 against 1,407. On rating alone ŁKS Łódź would be expected to take 71% of the points on offer.

  • ŁKS Łódź score more

    1.66 goals a game over 67 matches for ŁKS Łódź, against 1.23 over 74 for Stal Rzeszów.

  • ŁKS Łódź concede fewer

    ŁKS Łódź concede 1.31 a game, Stal Rzeszów 1.96.

  • Both teams play a similar number of high-scoring games

    69% of ŁKS Łódź matches, against 68% for Stal Rzeszów. The model puts this match at 66% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 25 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
ŁKS Łódź
Stal Rzeszów
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1563.0
ELO
1407.3
67
ELO · Matches
74
1563.0
Current Team ELO
1407.3
1407.3
Current Opponent ELO
1563.0
155.7
Current ELO Difference
-155.7
0.71
Expected score
0.29
67
History Matches
74
0.05
Residual Mean
-0.06
54.09
Overperformance
45.24
0.09
Recent 10 Residual Mean
-0.10
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
2.00
PPG
0.40
2.00
Goals for per game
0.60
1.00
Goals against per game
2.40
60.0%
Win rate
0.0%
10
Matches
10
1.80
PPG
0.70
1.80
Goals for per game
1.00
1.30
Goals against per game
2.30
50.0%
Win rate
10.0%
1.80
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.00
1.08
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.18
1.30
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
2.30
0.78
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.55
0.94
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.86
1.75
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
2.00
Overall performance9 signals
90
67
Matches
74
1.57
PPG
1.04
43.3%
Win rate
27.0%
26.9%
Draw rate
23.0%
29.9%
Loss rate
50.0%
83.6%
Over 1.5 rate
81.1%
68.7%
Over 2.5 rate
67.6%
35.8%
Over 3.5 rate
37.8%
1.88
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.91
Venue performance10 signals
100
36
Matches
37
1.75
PPG
0.95
50.0%
Win rate
24.3%
25.0%
Draw rate
21.6%
25.0%
Loss rate
54.1%
86.1%
Over 1.5 rate
89.2%
75.0%
Over 2.5 rate
75.7%
44.4%
Over 3.5 rate
43.2%
1.92
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.16
36
History Matches
37
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
1.66
Goals for per game
1.23
82.1%
Scoring rate
73.0%
62.7%
BTTS rate
63.5%
2.00
Goals for per game
1.22
86.1%
Scoring rate
70.3%
61.1%
BTTS rate
62.2%
2.00
Goals for per game
0.60
100.0%
Scoring rate
60.0%
80.0%
BTTS rate
60.0%
67
History Matches
74
1.66
Goals Mean
1.23
1.25
Goals Std
1.08
82.1%
Scored 1+ rate
73.0%
49.3%
Scored 2+ rate
31.1%
22.4%
Scored 3+ rate
14.9%
2.00
Venue Goals Mean
1.22
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
1.31
Goals against per game
1.96
73.1%
Conceding rate
86.5%
1.17
Goals against per game
2.30
66.7%
Conceding rate
89.2%
1.00
Goals against per game
2.40
80.0%
Conceding rate
100.0%
67
History Matches
74
1.31
Conceded Mean
1.96
1.11
Conceded Std
1.48
38.8%
Conceded 2+ rate
56.8%
16.4%
Conceded 3+ rate
28.4%
1.17
Venue Conceded Mean
2.30
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
26.9%
Clean-sheet rate
13.5%
17.9%
Failed-to-score rate
27.0%
33.3%
Clean-sheet rate
10.8%
13.9%
Failed-to-score rate
29.7%
20.0%
Clean-sheet rate
0.0%
0.0%
Failed-to-score rate
40.0%
26.9%
Clean-sheet rate
13.5%
17.9%
Failed-to-score rate
27.0%
33.3%
Clean-sheet rate
10.8%
13.9%
Failed-to-score rate
29.7%
26.9%
Clean-sheet rate
13.5%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
67
History Matches
74
0.98
Result entropy
0.94
1.88
Goal Difference Std
1.91
2.02
Stability score
5.51
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
65
Eligible Matches
72
22
Lead Matches
14
81.8%
Lead Win Rate
78.6%
0.86
Lead Points Retention
0.81
22
Trailing Matches
30
45.5%
Non-loss rate
23.3%
22.7%
Trailing Win Rate
10.0%
Goal timing5 signals
50
65
Halftime Coverage Matches
72
0.66
First Half Goals For Mean
0.50
0.71
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.82
0.98
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.71
0.63
Second Half Goals Against Mean
1.10
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
76.85
Rest days
75.85
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
4
Short Rest History Matches
4
0.75
Short Rest Points Per Match
0.25
32
Normal Rest History Matches
42
1.59
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.12
30
Long Rest History Matches
27
1.60
Long Rest Points Per Match
0.96
Competition & season17 signals
170
5
Matches
5
2.00
PPG
0.40
60.0%
Win rate
0.0%
20.0%
Draw rate
40.0%
20.0%
Loss rate
60.0%
100.0%
Over 1.5 rate
80.0%
80.0%
Over 2.5 rate
40.0%
20.0%
Over 3.5 rate
40.0%
1.67
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.83
5
Current Competition Matches
5
2.00
Current Competition PPG
0.40
1.00
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
-1.80
6
Competition Season Count
6
5
Eligible Competition Season Count
5
0.29
Portability PPG Std
0.43
0.67
Portability PPG Range
1.17
63.49
Portability Score
53.94
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
67
Clean History Matches
74
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
ELO155.7
PPG0.53
GF0.43
GA-0.65
PPG1.60
PPG0.80
PPG1.60
PPG1.10
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches-7
Clean-sheet rate13.4%
Failed-to-score rate-0.09
History Matches-1
Clean-sheet rate22.5%
Failed-to-score rate-0.16
History Matches-7
Goals Mean0.43
Goals Std0.17
Scored 1+ rate9.1%
Scored 2+ rate18.2%
Scored 3+ rate7.5%
Venue Goals Mean0.78
Recent 10 Goals Mean0.80
Recent 10 Goals Std-0.11
History Matches-7
Conceded Mean-0.65
Conceded Std-0.37
Clean-sheet rate13.4%
Conceded 2+ rate-0.18
Conceded 3+ rate-0.12
Venue Conceded Mean-1.13
Recent 10 Conceded Mean-1.00
Recent 10 Conceded Std-0.77
History Matches-7
Result entropy0.03
Goal Difference Std-0.02
Stability score-3.49
Recent 10 Result Entropy0.08
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std-0.26
Eligible Matches-7
Lead Matches8
Lead Win Rate3.2%
Lead Points Retention0.05
Trailing Matches-8
Non-loss rate22.1%
Trailing Win Rate12.7%
Halftime Coverage Matches-7
First Half Goals For Mean0.16
First Half Goals Against Mean-0.11
Second Half Goals For Mean0.28
Second Half Goals Against Mean-0.47
Current Competition Matches0
Current Competition PPG1.60
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean2.80
Competition Season Count0
Eligible Competition Season Count0
Portability PPG Std-0.14
Portability PPG Range-0.50
Portability Score9.55
Rest days1.00
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches0
Short Rest Points Per Match0.50
Normal Rest History Matches-10
Normal Rest Points Per Match0.47
Long Rest History Matches3
Long Rest Points Per Match0.64
Current Team ELO155.7
Current Opponent ELO-155.7
Current ELO Difference311.4
Expected score0.42
History Matches-7
Residual Mean0.11
Overperformance8.86
Recent 10 Residual Mean0.19

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

ŁKS Łódź

D
ŁKS Łódź1–1Polonia Warszawa2 Nov · home
Pick: ŁKS Łódź 44% · missed
W
Warta Poznań0–1ŁKS Łódź26 Oct · away
Pick: Warta Poznań 40% · missed
W
ŁKS Łódź1–0Podbeskidzie18 Oct · home
Pick: ŁKS Łódź 44% · hit
Earlier results appear as match history is added

Stal Rzeszów

D
Stal Rzeszów2–2Puszcza Niepołomice2 Nov · home
Pick: Puszcza Niepołomice 44% · missed
W
Arka Gdynia1–2Stal Rzeszów29 Oct · away
Pick: Arka Gdynia 44% · missed
L
Podbeskidzie2–1Stal Rzeszów25 Oct · away
Pick: Podbeskidzie 64% · hit
W
Pogoń Siedlce3–4Stal Rzeszów18 Oct · away
Pick: Pogoń Siedlce 57% · missed
L
Stal Rzeszów1–2Lechia Gdansk12 Oct · home
Pick: Stal Rzeszów 40% · missed

About this match

ŁKS Łódź and Stal Rzeszów meet in I Liga on Sunday 8 November 2026, kickoff 13:30 UTC. ScoreProb published its prediction on 2 Nov, 08:51 UTC: ŁKS Łódź win 61.4%, draw 18.9%, Stal Rzeszów win 19.8%. The pick is ŁKS Łódź win. Over 2.5 goals: 65.7%. Both teams to score: 55.2%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.