ScoreProb
I Liga Poland Round 14 2026

Pogoń Siedlce vs Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki

Pogoń Siedlce Home · Elo 1,440
Sun 8 Nov
UTC
Not started
Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki Away · Elo 1,482
Stadion ROSRRiT, Siedlce Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 2 Nov, 08:51 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki win
Pogoń Siedlce win
26.4%
Draw
25.2%
Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki winPick
48.4%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Lineups · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Live stats · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes54.1%
No45.9%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.555.8%
Under 2.544.2%

How much we know

Pogoń Siedlce history63 matches
Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki history72 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 7 h ahead
    2 Nov · 08:51 UTC
  2. Re-published 2 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 2 Nov · 20:35 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    8 Nov · 16:00 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 40–49% band (48.4%). Picks in that band won 45.4% of the time, and the model said 44.8% on average, over 6,162 matches.

Why Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki are rated 42 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,482 against 1,440. On rating alone Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki would be expected to take 56% of the points on offer.

  • Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki score more

    1.11 goals a game over 63 matches for Pogoń Siedlce, against 1.49 over 72 for Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki.

  • Pogoń Siedlce concede fewer

    Pogoń Siedlce concede 1.38 a game, Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki 1.67.

  • Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki games more often go over 2.5 goals

    46% of Pogoń Siedlce matches, against 65% for Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki. The model puts this match at 56% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 22 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Pogoń Siedlce
Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1439.8
ELO
1481.7
63
ELO · Matches
72
1439.8
Current Team ELO
1481.7
1481.7
Current Opponent ELO
1439.8
-41.87
Current ELO Difference
41.87
0.44
Expected score
0.56
63
History Matches
72
-0.05
Residual Mean
-0.01
46.11
Overperformance
48.87
0.00
Recent 10 Residual Mean
0.17
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
1.00
PPG
2.20
1.00
Goals for per game
1.60
1.20
Goals against per game
0.60
20.0%
Win rate
60.0%
10
Matches
10
0.90
PPG
1.60
1.00
Goals for per game
1.30
1.80
Goals against per game
1.00
20.0%
Win rate
40.0%
1.00
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.30
0.77
Recent 10 Goals Std
0.78
1.80
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.00
1.08
Recent 10 Conceded Std
0.89
0.94
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.96
1.40
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.27
Overall performance9 signals
90
63
Matches
72
1.11
PPG
1.28
27.0%
Win rate
31.9%
30.2%
Draw rate
31.9%
42.9%
Loss rate
36.1%
79.4%
Over 1.5 rate
86.1%
46.0%
Over 2.5 rate
65.3%
20.6%
Over 3.5 rate
36.1%
1.57
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.66
Venue performance10 signals
100
30
Matches
37
1.30
PPG
1.11
33.3%
Win rate
29.7%
30.0%
Draw rate
21.6%
36.7%
Loss rate
48.6%
76.7%
Over 1.5 rate
83.8%
46.7%
Over 2.5 rate
67.6%
13.3%
Over 3.5 rate
35.1%
1.45
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.64
30
History Matches
37
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
1.11
Goals for per game
1.49
71.4%
Scoring rate
76.4%
57.1%
BTTS rate
65.3%
1.17
Goals for per game
1.30
76.7%
Scoring rate
73.0%
56.7%
BTTS rate
64.9%
1.00
Goals for per game
1.60
80.0%
Scoring rate
100.0%
60.0%
BTTS rate
40.0%
63
History Matches
72
1.11
Goals Mean
1.49
0.96
Goals Std
1.15
71.4%
Scored 1+ rate
76.4%
28.6%
Scored 2+ rate
47.2%
9.5%
Scored 3+ rate
19.4%
1.17
Venue Goals Mean
1.30
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
1.38
Goals against per game
1.67
79.4%
Conceding rate
84.7%
1.13
Goals against per game
1.81
70.0%
Conceding rate
86.5%
1.20
Goals against per game
0.60
80.0%
Conceding rate
40.0%
63
History Matches
72
1.38
Conceded Mean
1.67
1.09
Conceded Std
1.15
39.7%
Conceded 2+ rate
51.4%
12.7%
Conceded 3+ rate
22.2%
1.13
Venue Conceded Mean
1.81
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
20.6%
Clean-sheet rate
15.3%
28.6%
Failed-to-score rate
23.6%
30.0%
Clean-sheet rate
13.5%
23.3%
Failed-to-score rate
27.0%
20.0%
Clean-sheet rate
60.0%
20.0%
Failed-to-score rate
0.0%
20.6%
Clean-sheet rate
15.3%
28.6%
Failed-to-score rate
23.6%
30.0%
Clean-sheet rate
13.5%
23.3%
Failed-to-score rate
27.0%
20.6%
Clean-sheet rate
15.3%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
63
History Matches
72
0.98
Result entropy
1.00
1.57
Goal Difference Std
1.66
1.87
Stability score
0.16
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
62
Eligible Matches
70
16
Lead Matches
22
50.0%
Lead Win Rate
72.7%
0.63
Lead Points Retention
0.80
21
Trailing Matches
22
23.8%
Non-loss rate
27.3%
9.5%
Trailing Win Rate
9.1%
Goal timing5 signals
50
62
Halftime Coverage Matches
70
0.45
First Half Goals For Mean
0.83
0.63
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.70
0.63
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.66
0.77
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.96
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
78.90
Rest days
78.10
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
2
Short Rest History Matches
3
2.00
Short Rest Points Per Match
0.33
27
Normal Rest History Matches
38
0.85
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.55
33
Long Rest History Matches
30
1.27
Long Rest Points Per Match
0.97
Competition & season17 signals
170
5
Matches
5
1.00
PPG
2.20
20.0%
Win rate
60.0%
40.0%
Draw rate
40.0%
40.0%
Loss rate
0.0%
60.0%
Over 1.5 rate
60.0%
40.0%
Over 2.5 rate
40.0%
20.0%
Over 3.5 rate
20.0%
0.75
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.10
5
Current Competition Matches
5
1.00
Current Competition PPG
2.20
-0.20
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
1.00
6
Competition Season Count
6
4
Eligible Competition Season Count
5
0.26
Portability PPG Std
0.49
0.73
Portability PPG Range
1.53
65.78
Portability Score
50.25
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
63
Clean History Matches
72
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
ELO-41.87
PPG-0.17
GF-0.38
GA-0.29
PPG-1.20
PPG0.19
PPG-1.20
PPG-0.70
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches-9
Clean-sheet rate5.4%
Failed-to-score rate5.0%
History Matches-7
Clean-sheet rate16.5%
Failed-to-score rate-0.04
History Matches-9
Goals Mean-0.38
Goals Std-0.19
Scored 1+ rate-0.05
Scored 2+ rate-0.19
Scored 3+ rate-0.10
Venue Goals Mean-0.13
Recent 10 Goals Mean-0.30
Recent 10 Goals Std-0.01
History Matches-9
Conceded Mean-0.29
Conceded Std-0.06
Clean-sheet rate5.4%
Conceded 2+ rate-0.12
Conceded 3+ rate-0.10
Venue Conceded Mean-0.68
Recent 10 Conceded Mean0.80
Recent 10 Conceded Std0.18
History Matches-9
Result entropy-0.02
Goal Difference Std-0.10
Stability score1.71
Recent 10 Result Entropy-0.02
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std0.13
Eligible Matches-8
Lead Matches-6
Lead Win Rate-0.23
Lead Points Retention-0.18
Trailing Matches-1
Non-loss rate-0.03
Trailing Win Rate0.4%
Halftime Coverage Matches-8
First Half Goals For Mean-0.38
First Half Goals Against Mean-0.07
Second Half Goals For Mean-0.03
Second Half Goals Against Mean-0.18
Current Competition Matches0
Current Competition PPG-1.20
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean-1.20
Competition Season Count0
Eligible Competition Season Count-1
Portability PPG Std-0.23
Portability PPG Range-0.80
Portability Score15.53
Rest days0.79
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches-1
Short Rest Points Per Match1.67
Normal Rest History Matches-11
Normal Rest Points Per Match-0.70
Long Rest History Matches3
Long Rest Points Per Match0.31
Current Team ELO-41.87
Current Opponent ELO41.87
Current ELO Difference-83.74
Expected score-0.12
History Matches-9
Residual Mean-0.04
Overperformance-2.76
Recent 10 Residual Mean-0.18

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Pogoń Siedlce

D
Pogoń Siedlce1–1Ruch Chorzów3 Nov · home
Pick: Pogoń Siedlce 43% · missed
W
Odra Opole0–1Pogoń Siedlce25 Oct · away
Pick: Odra Opole 47% · missed
L
Pogoń Siedlce3–4Stal Rzeszów18 Oct · home
Pick: Pogoń Siedlce 57% · missed
L
Pogoń Siedlce1–3Puszcza Niepołomice15 Oct · home
Pick: Pogoń Siedlce 50% · missed
W
Pogoń Siedlce2–0Stal Mielec29 Aug · home
Pick: Stal Mielec 38% · missed

Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki

L
Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki0–1Stal Mielec30 Oct · home
Pick: Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki 58% · missed
L
Ruch Chorzów2–0Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki25 Oct · away
Pick: Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki 46% · missed
L
Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki0–1Polonia Warszawa17 Oct · home
Pick: Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki 43% · missed
L
Podhale Nowy Targ3–1Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki1 Sep · away
Pick: Podhale Nowy Targ 40% · hit
Earlier results appear as match history is added

About this match

Pogoń Siedlce and Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki meet in I Liga on Sunday 8 November 2026, kickoff 16:00 UTC. The match is played at Stadion ROSRRiT, Siedlce. ScoreProb published its prediction on 2 Nov, 08:51 UTC: Pogoń Siedlce win 26.4%, draw 25.2%, Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki win 48.4%. The pick is Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki win. Over 2.5 goals: 55.8%. Both teams to score: 54.1%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.