ScoreProb
I Liga Poland Round 14 2026

Stal Mielec vs Ruch Chorzów

Stal Mielec Home · Elo 1,456
Sun 8 Nov
UTC
Not started
Ruch Chorzów Away · Elo 1,517
Stadion Miejski przy Solskiego 1 w Mielcu, Mielec Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 2 Nov, 08:51 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Stal Mielec win
Stal Mielec winPick
40.1%
Draw
23.9%
Ruch Chorzów win
36.0%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Lineups · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Live stats · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes60.8%
No39.2%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.563.2%
Under 2.536.8%

How much we know

Stal Mielec history61 matches
Ruch Chorzów history68 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 10 h ahead
    2 Nov · 08:51 UTC
  2. Re-published 2 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 2 Nov · 20:35 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    8 Nov · 19:15 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 40–49% band (40.1%). Picks in that band won 45.4% of the time, and the model said 44.8% on average, over 6,162 matches.

Why Stal Mielec are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • Ruch Chorzów are rated 62 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,517 against 1,456. On rating alone Ruch Chorzów would be expected to take 59% of the points on offer.

  • Scoring rates are level

    1.44 goals a game over 61 matches for Stal Mielec, against 1.41 over 68 for Ruch Chorzów.

  • Ruch Chorzów concede fewer

    Stal Mielec concede 2.03 a game, Ruch Chorzów 1.41.

  • Stal Mielec games more often go over 2.5 goals

    74% of Stal Mielec matches, against 54% for Ruch Chorzów. The model puts this match at 63% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 24 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Stal Mielec
Ruch Chorzów
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1455.8
ELO
1517.4
61
ELO · Matches
68
1455.8
Current Team ELO
1517.4
1517.4
Current Opponent ELO
1455.8
-61.64
Current ELO Difference
61.64
0.41
Expected score
0.59
61
History Matches
68
-0.03
Residual Mean
0.02
47.88
Overperformance
51.45
0.22
Recent 10 Residual Mean
-0.06
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
1.60
PPG
1.40
2.20
Goals for per game
0.60
2.20
Goals against per game
1.00
40.0%
Win rate
40.0%
10
Matches
10
1.70
PPG
1.30
2.10
Goals for per game
0.90
2.20
Goals against per game
1.30
50.0%
Win rate
40.0%
2.10
Recent 10 Goals Mean
0.90
1.51
Recent 10 Goals Std
0.70
2.20
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.30
1.60
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.00
0.94
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.86
2.55
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.28
Overall performance9 signals
90
61
Matches
68
1.00
PPG
1.40
26.2%
Win rate
36.8%
21.3%
Draw rate
29.4%
52.5%
Loss rate
33.8%
88.5%
Over 1.5 rate
83.8%
73.8%
Over 2.5 rate
54.4%
47.5%
Over 3.5 rate
33.8%
1.92
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.78
Venue performance10 signals
100
32
Matches
32
1.09
PPG
1.28
28.1%
Win rate
31.3%
25.0%
Draw rate
34.4%
46.9%
Loss rate
34.4%
87.5%
Over 1.5 rate
84.4%
75.0%
Over 2.5 rate
53.1%
43.8%
Over 3.5 rate
34.4%
1.93
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.66
32
History Matches
32
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
1.44
Goals for per game
1.41
78.7%
Scoring rate
80.9%
70.5%
BTTS rate
57.4%
1.56
Goals for per game
1.44
84.4%
Scoring rate
84.4%
75.0%
BTTS rate
59.4%
2.20
Goals for per game
0.60
80.0%
Scoring rate
60.0%
80.0%
BTTS rate
20.0%
61
History Matches
68
1.44
Goals Mean
1.41
1.21
Goals Std
1.05
78.7%
Scored 1+ rate
80.9%
39.3%
Scored 2+ rate
42.6%
16.4%
Scored 3+ rate
11.8%
1.56
Venue Goals Mean
1.44
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
2.03
Goals against per game
1.41
88.5%
Conceding rate
73.5%
1.78
Goals against per game
1.44
84.4%
Conceding rate
71.9%
2.20
Goals against per game
1.00
100.0%
Conceding rate
60.0%
61
History Matches
68
2.03
Conceded Mean
1.41
1.34
Conceded Std
1.20
62.3%
Conceded 2+ rate
44.1%
29.5%
Conceded 3+ rate
16.2%
1.78
Venue Conceded Mean
1.44
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
11.5%
Clean-sheet rate
26.5%
21.3%
Failed-to-score rate
19.1%
15.6%
Clean-sheet rate
28.1%
15.6%
Failed-to-score rate
15.6%
0.0%
Clean-sheet rate
40.0%
20.0%
Failed-to-score rate
40.0%
11.5%
Clean-sheet rate
26.5%
21.3%
Failed-to-score rate
19.1%
15.6%
Clean-sheet rate
28.1%
15.6%
Failed-to-score rate
15.6%
11.5%
Clean-sheet rate
26.5%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
61
History Matches
68
0.93
Result entropy
1.00
1.92
Goal Difference Std
1.78
7.25
Stability score
0.38
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
61
Eligible Matches
67
20
Lead Matches
26
60.0%
Lead Win Rate
65.4%
0.67
Lead Points Retention
0.72
18
Trailing Matches
12
16.7%
Non-loss rate
16.7%
0.0%
Trailing Win Rate
0.0%
Goal timing5 signals
50
61
Halftime Coverage Matches
67
0.77
First Half Goals For Mean
0.82
0.70
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.55
0.67
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.58
1.33
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.85
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
77.09
Rest days
76.09
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
1
Short Rest History Matches
3
3.00
Short Rest Points Per Match
1.00
30
Normal Rest History Matches
35
1.13
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.49
29
Long Rest History Matches
29
0.83
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.34
Competition & season17 signals
170
5
Matches
5
1.60
PPG
1.40
40.0%
Win rate
40.0%
40.0%
Draw rate
20.0%
20.0%
Loss rate
40.0%
100.0%
Over 1.5 rate
60.0%
80.0%
Over 2.5 rate
0.0%
60.0%
Over 3.5 rate
0.0%
2.28
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.36
5
Current Competition Matches
5
1.60
Current Competition PPG
1.40
0.00
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
-0.40
5
Competition Season Count
7
4
Eligible Competition Season Count
5
0.31
Portability PPG Std
0.54
0.87
Portability PPG Range
1.57
61.37
Portability Score
48.04
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
61
Clean History Matches
68
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
ELO-61.64
PPG-0.40
GF0.03
GA0.62
PPG0.20
PPG-0.19
PPG0.20
PPG0.40
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches-7
Clean-sheet rate-0.15
Failed-to-score rate2.2%
History Matches0
Clean-sheet rate-0.13
Failed-to-score rate0.0%
History Matches-7
Goals Mean0.03
Goals Std0.16
Scored 1+ rate-0.02
Scored 2+ rate-0.03
Scored 3+ rate4.6%
Venue Goals Mean0.13
Recent 10 Goals Mean1.20
Recent 10 Goals Std0.81
History Matches-7
Conceded Mean0.62
Conceded Std0.14
Clean-sheet rate-0.15
Conceded 2+ rate18.2%
Conceded 3+ rate13.3%
Venue Conceded Mean0.34
Recent 10 Conceded Mean0.90
Recent 10 Conceded Std0.60
History Matches-7
Result entropy-0.07
Goal Difference Std0.14
Stability score6.88
Recent 10 Result Entropy0.08
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std1.27
Eligible Matches-6
Lead Matches-6
Lead Win Rate-0.05
Lead Points Retention-0.05
Trailing Matches6
Non-loss rate0.0%
Trailing Win Rate0.0%
Halftime Coverage Matches-6
First Half Goals For Mean-0.05
First Half Goals Against Mean0.15
Second Half Goals For Mean0.09
Second Half Goals Against Mean0.48
Current Competition Matches0
Current Competition PPG0.20
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean0.40
Competition Season Count-2
Eligible Competition Season Count-1
Portability PPG Std-0.23
Portability PPG Range-0.70
Portability Score13.33
Rest days1.00
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches-2
Short Rest Points Per Match2.00
Normal Rest History Matches-5
Normal Rest Points Per Match-0.35
Long Rest History Matches0
Long Rest Points Per Match-0.52
Current Team ELO-61.64
Current Opponent ELO61.64
Current ELO Difference-123.3
Expected score-0.18
History Matches-7
Residual Mean-0.05
Overperformance-3.57
Recent 10 Residual Mean0.29

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Stal Mielec

W
Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki0–1Stal Mielec30 Oct · away
Pick: Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki 58% · missed
D
Stal Mielec0–0Chrobry Głogów24 Oct · home
Pick: Chrobry Głogów 44% · missed
L
Miedz Legnica3–0Stal Mielec17 Oct · away
Pick: Miedz Legnica 60% · hit
L
Pogoń Siedlce2–0Stal Mielec29 Aug · away
Pick: Stal Mielec 38% · missed
Earlier results appear as match history is added

Ruch Chorzów

D
Pogoń Siedlce1–1Ruch Chorzów3 Nov · away
Pick: Pogoń Siedlce 43% · missed
W
Znicz Pruszków0–1Ruch Chorzów28 Oct · away
Pick: Ruch Chorzów 41% · hit
W
Ruch Chorzów2–0Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki25 Oct · home
Pick: Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki 46% · missed
W
Ruch Chorzów3–0Odra Opole16 Oct · home
Pick: Ruch Chorzów 42% · hit
L
Chrobry Głogów2–0Ruch Chorzów30 Aug · away
Pick: Chrobry Głogów 47% · hit

About this match

Stal Mielec and Ruch Chorzów meet in I Liga on Sunday 8 November 2026, kickoff 19:15 UTC. The match is played at Stadion Miejski przy Solskiego 1 w Mielcu, Mielec. ScoreProb published its prediction on 2 Nov, 08:51 UTC: Stal Mielec win 40.1%, draw 23.9%, Ruch Chorzów win 36.0%. The pick is Stal Mielec win. Over 2.5 goals: 63.2%. Both teams to score: 60.8%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.