ScoreProb
FA WSL England Round 9 2026

London City Lionesses W vs Birmingham City W

London City Lionesses W Home · Elo 1,513
Sat 7 Nov
UTC
Not started
Birmingham City W Away · Elo 1,573
Copperjax Community Stadium, London Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Birmingham City W win
London City Lionesses W win
33.1%
Draw
25.9%
Birmingham City W winPick
41.0%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Lineups · on the pitch, about an hour before kickoff
Live score and events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Live stats · shots, possession, corners, side by side
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes51.7%
No48.3%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.556.5%
Under 2.543.5%

How much we know

London City Lionesses W history35 matches
Birmingham City W history37 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 3 h ahead
    1 Nov · 08:41 UTC
  2. Re-published 11 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 4 Nov · 07:21 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    7 Nov · 12:00 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 40–49% band (41.0%). Picks in that band won 45.4% of the time, and the model said 44.8% on average, over 6,162 matches.

Why Birmingham City W are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • Birmingham City W are rated 61 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,573 against 1,513. On rating alone Birmingham City W would be expected to take 59% of the points on offer.

  • Birmingham City W score far more

    1.34 goals a game over 35 matches for London City Lionesses W, against 2.24 over 37 for Birmingham City W.

  • Defences are close

    London City Lionesses W concede 1.29 a game, Birmingham City W 1.16.

  • Birmingham City W games more often go over 2.5 goals

    46% of London City Lionesses W matches, against 62% for Birmingham City W. The model puts this match at 57% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 16 May 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
London City Lionesses W
Birmingham City W
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1512.7
ELO
1573.3
35
ELO · Matches
37
1512.7
Current Team ELO
1573.3
1573.3
Current Opponent ELO
1512.7
-60.59
Current ELO Difference
60.59
0.41
Expected score
0.59
35
History Matches
37
0.01
Residual Mean
0.10
50.92
Overperformance
56.45
-0.03
Recent 10 Residual Mean
0.02
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
1.60
PPG
1.80
2.00
Goals for per game
0.80
1.20
Goals against per game
0.80
40.0%
Win rate
60.0%
10
Matches
10
1.20
PPG
1.80
1.50
Goals for per game
1.60
1.40
Goals against per game
1.00
30.0%
Win rate
60.0%
1.50
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.60
1.36
Recent 10 Goals Std
2.24
1.40
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.00
0.49
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.18
0.99
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.61
1.58
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
2.94
Overall performance9 signals
90
35
Matches
37
1.49
PPG
1.89
42.9%
Win rate
56.8%
20.0%
Draw rate
18.9%
37.1%
Loss rate
24.3%
71.4%
Over 1.5 rate
81.1%
45.7%
Over 2.5 rate
62.2%
25.7%
Over 3.5 rate
40.5%
1.77
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.49
Venue performance10 signals
100
17
Matches
18
1.59
PPG
1.94
47.1%
Win rate
55.6%
17.6%
Draw rate
27.8%
35.3%
Loss rate
16.7%
64.7%
Over 1.5 rate
83.3%
41.2%
Over 2.5 rate
44.4%
29.4%
Over 3.5 rate
22.2%
1.97
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.09
17
History Matches
18
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals for per gameScoring rateBTTS rate
1.34
Goals for per game
2.24
77.1%
Scoring rate
83.8%
54.3%
BTTS rate
48.6%
1.53
Goals for per game
1.83
76.5%
Scoring rate
83.3%
47.1%
BTTS rate
38.9%
35
History Matches
37
1.34
Goals Mean
2.24
1.19
Goals Std
1.98
77.1%
Scored 1+ rate
83.8%
34.3%
Scored 2+ rate
51.4%
11.4%
Scored 3+ rate
35.1%
1.53
Venue Goals Mean
1.83
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals against per gameConceding rate
1.29
Goals against per game
1.16
74.3%
Conceding rate
64.9%
1.18
Goals against per game
1.00
70.6%
Conceding rate
55.6%
35
History Matches
37
1.29
Conceded Mean
1.16
1.18
Conceded Std
1.08
34.3%
Conceded 2+ rate
35.1%
8.6%
Conceded 3+ rate
16.2%
1.18
Venue Conceded Mean
1.00
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Clean-sheet rateFailed-to-score rate
25.7%
Clean-sheet rate
35.1%
22.9%
Failed-to-score rate
16.2%
29.4%
Clean-sheet rate
44.4%
23.5%
Failed-to-score rate
16.7%
25.7%
Clean-sheet rate
35.1%
22.9%
Failed-to-score rate
16.2%
29.4%
Clean-sheet rate
44.4%
23.5%
Failed-to-score rate
16.7%
25.7%
Clean-sheet rate
35.1%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
35
History Matches
37
0.96
Result entropy
0.89
1.77
Goal Difference Std
2.49
4.16
Stability score
10.77
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
35
Eligible Matches
37
8
Lead Matches
17
87.5%
Lead Win Rate
76.5%
0.92
Lead Points Retention
0.84
15
Trailing Matches
9
33.3%
Non-loss rate
0.0%
13.3%
Trailing Win Rate
0.0%
Goal timing5 signals
50
35
Halftime Coverage Matches
37
0.49
First Half Goals For Mean
0.84
0.69
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.51
0.86
Second Half Goals For Mean
1.41
0.60
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.65
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
175.0
Rest days
188.9
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
0
Short Rest History Matches
1
—
Short Rest Points Per Match
3.00
13
Normal Rest History Matches
20
1.69
Normal Rest Points Per Match
2.05
21
Long Rest History Matches
15
1.29
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.73
Competition & season17 signals
170
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin rateDraw rateLoss rateOver 1.5 rateOver 2.5 rateOver 3.5 rateGoal difference · Standard deviationCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference Mean
0
Matches
0
0
Current Competition Matches
0
5
Competition Season Count
4
3
Eligible Competition Season Count
4
0.40
Portability PPG Std
0.61
0.92
Portability PPG Range
1.58
55.42
Portability Score
45.02
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
35
Clean History Matches
37
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scoreCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference MeanShort Rest Points Per Match
ELO-60.59
PPG-0.41
GF-0.90
GA0.12
PPG-0.36
PPG-0.20
PPG-0.60
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches-2
Clean-sheet rate-0.09
Failed-to-score rate6.6%
History Matches-1
Clean-sheet rate-0.15
Failed-to-score rate6.9%
History Matches-2
Goals Mean-0.90
Goals Std-0.78
Scored 1+ rate-0.07
Scored 2+ rate-0.17
Scored 3+ rate-0.24
Venue Goals Mean-0.30
Recent 10 Goals Mean-0.10
Recent 10 Goals Std-0.88
History Matches-2
Conceded Mean0.12
Conceded Std0.11
Clean-sheet rate-0.09
Conceded 2+ rate-0.01
Conceded 3+ rate-0.08
Venue Conceded Mean0.18
Recent 10 Conceded Mean0.40
Recent 10 Conceded Std-0.69
History Matches-2
Result entropy0.07
Goal Difference Std-0.71
Stability score-6.60
Recent 10 Result Entropy0.38
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std-1.36
Eligible Matches-2
Lead Matches-9
Lead Win Rate11.0%
Lead Points Retention0.07
Trailing Matches6
Non-loss rate33.3%
Trailing Win Rate13.3%
Halftime Coverage Matches-2
First Half Goals For Mean-0.35
First Half Goals Against Mean0.17
Second Half Goals For Mean-0.55
Second Half Goals Against Mean-0.05
Current Competition Matches0
Competition Season Count1
Eligible Competition Season Count-1
Portability PPG Std-0.21
Portability PPG Range-0.67
Portability Score10.40
Rest days-13.92
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches-1
Normal Rest History Matches-7
Normal Rest Points Per Match-0.36
Long Rest History Matches6
Long Rest Points Per Match-0.45
Current Team ELO-60.59
Current Opponent ELO60.59
Current ELO Difference-121.2
Expected score-0.17
History Matches-2
Residual Mean-0.08
Overperformance-5.53
Recent 10 Residual Mean-0.05

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

London City Lionesses W

L
London City Lionesses W1–2Manchester City W1 Nov · home
Pick: Manchester City W 48% · hit
W
London City Lionesses W4–2Crystal Palace W28 Oct · home
Pick: Crystal Palace W 42% · missed
D
Liverpool W2–2London City Lionesses W25 Oct · away
Pick: Liverpool W 47% · missed
W
West Ham W1–2London City Lionesses W21 Oct · away
Pick: West Ham W 48% · missed
W
London City Lionesses W2–1Everton W18 Oct · home
Pick: Everton W 40% · missed

Birmingham City W

L
Birmingham City W1–4Tottenham Hotspur W1 Nov · home
Pick: Birmingham City W 50% · missed
W
Birmingham City W1–0Charlton Athletic W25 Oct · home
Pick: Birmingham City W 40% · hit
W
Durham W0–5Birmingham City W21 Oct · away
Pick: Birmingham City W 46% · hit
D
Arsenal W1–1Birmingham City W17 Oct · away
Pick: Arsenal W 62% · missed
L
Everton W2–1Birmingham City W4 Oct · away
Pick: Birmingham City W 41% · missed

About this match

London City Lionesses W and Birmingham City W meet in FA WSL on Saturday 7 November 2026, kickoff 12:00 UTC. The match is played at Copperjax Community Stadium, London. ScoreProb published its prediction on 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC: London City Lionesses W win 33.1%, draw 25.9%, Birmingham City W win 41.0%. The pick is Birmingham City W win. Over 2.5 goals: 56.5%. Both teams to score: 51.7%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.