ScoreProb
FA WSL England Round 9 2026

Chelsea W vs Everton W

Chelsea W Home · Elo 1,700
Sat 7 Nov
UTC
Not started
Everton W Away · Elo 1,477
Stamford Bridge, London Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Chelsea W win
Chelsea W winPick
65.5%
Draw
17.2%
Everton W win
17.3%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Lineups · on the pitch, about an hour before kickoff
Live stats · shots, possession, corners, side by side
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes52.4%
No47.6%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.564.3%
Under 2.535.7%

How much we know

Chelsea W history58 matches
Everton W history39 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 3 h ahead
    1 Nov · 08:41 UTC
  2. Re-published 11 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 4 Nov · 07:21 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    7 Nov · 12:30 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 60–69% band (65.5%). Picks in that band won 63.6% of the time, and the model said 64.3% on average, over 1,851 matches.

Why Chelsea W are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • Chelsea W are rated 223 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,700 against 1,477. On rating alone Chelsea W would be expected to take 78% of the points on offer.

  • Chelsea W score far more

    2.19 goals a game over 58 matches for Chelsea W, against 1.38 over 39 for Everton W.

  • Chelsea W concede fewer

    Chelsea W concede 0.88 a game, Everton W 1.62.

  • Both teams play a similar number of high-scoring games

    55% of Chelsea W matches, against 56% for Everton W. The model puts this match at 64% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 16 May 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Chelsea W
Everton W
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1700.0
ELO
1477.2
58
ELO · Matches
39
1700.0
Current Team ELO
1477.2
1477.2
Current Opponent ELO
1700.0
222.8
Current ELO Difference
-222.8
0.78
Expected score
0.22
58
History Matches
39
0.18
Residual Mean
-0.04
63.73
Overperformance
47.47
0.13
Recent 10 Residual Mean
0.08
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
2.60
PPG
0.60
2.40
Goals for per game
1.00
1.00
Goals against per game
2.00
80.0%
Win rate
20.0%
10
Matches
10
2.30
PPG
1.50
2.10
Goals for per game
1.20
1.30
Goals against per game
1.40
70.0%
Win rate
50.0%
2.10
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.20
1.14
Recent 10 Goals Std
0.60
1.30
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.40
1.00
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.28
0.73
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.63
1.25
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.33
Overall performance9 signals
90
58
Matches
39
2.29
PPG
1.13
70.7%
Win rate
33.3%
17.2%
Draw rate
12.8%
12.1%
Loss rate
53.8%
79.3%
Over 1.5 rate
82.1%
55.2%
Over 2.5 rate
56.4%
36.2%
Over 3.5 rate
35.9%
2.19
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.87
Venue performance10 signals
100
34
Matches
22
2.50
PPG
1.23
79.4%
Win rate
36.4%
11.8%
Draw rate
13.6%
8.8%
Loss rate
50.0%
76.5%
Over 1.5 rate
81.8%
55.9%
Over 2.5 rate
50.0%
32.4%
Over 3.5 rate
31.8%
1.85
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.94
34
History Matches
22
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals for per gameScoring rateBTTS rate
2.19
Goals for per game
1.38
94.8%
Scoring rate
82.1%
50.0%
BTTS rate
61.5%
2.21
Goals for per game
1.41
94.1%
Scoring rate
77.3%
41.2%
BTTS rate
54.5%
58
History Matches
39
2.19
Goals Mean
1.38
1.67
Goals Std
1.17
94.8%
Scored 1+ rate
82.1%
56.9%
Scored 2+ rate
30.8%
29.3%
Scored 3+ rate
15.4%
2.21
Venue Goals Mean
1.41
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals against per gameConceding rate
0.88
Goals against per game
1.62
55.2%
Conceding rate
79.5%
0.71
Goals against per game
1.45
47.1%
Conceding rate
77.3%
58
History Matches
39
0.88
Conceded Mean
1.62
1.12
Conceded Std
1.21
17.2%
Conceded 2+ rate
48.7%
8.6%
Conceded 3+ rate
25.6%
0.71
Venue Conceded Mean
1.45
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Clean-sheet rateFailed-to-score rate
44.8%
Clean-sheet rate
20.5%
5.2%
Failed-to-score rate
17.9%
52.9%
Clean-sheet rate
22.7%
5.9%
Failed-to-score rate
22.7%
44.8%
Clean-sheet rate
20.5%
5.2%
Failed-to-score rate
17.9%
52.9%
Clean-sheet rate
22.7%
5.9%
Failed-to-score rate
22.7%
44.8%
Clean-sheet rate
20.5%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
58
History Matches
39
0.73
Result entropy
0.88
2.19
Goal Difference Std
1.87
26.86
Stability score
12.35
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
58
Eligible Matches
39
31
Lead Matches
10
87.1%
Lead Win Rate
90.0%
0.91
Lead Points Retention
0.90
7
Trailing Matches
14
28.6%
Non-loss rate
0.0%
14.3%
Trailing Win Rate
0.0%
Goal timing5 signals
50
58
Halftime Coverage Matches
39
1.12
First Half Goals For Mean
0.62
0.45
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.82
1.07
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.77
0.43
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.79
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
175.0
Rest days
175.0
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
3
Short Rest History Matches
1
0.67
Short Rest Points Per Match
3.00
37
Normal Rest History Matches
14
2.49
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.00
17
Long Rest History Matches
23
2.12
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.17
Competition & season17 signals
170
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin rateDraw rateLoss rateOver 1.5 rateOver 2.5 rateOver 3.5 rateGoal difference · Standard deviationCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference Mean
0
Matches
0
0
Current Competition Matches
0
8
Competition Season Count
5
7
Eligible Competition Season Count
3
0.72
Portability PPG Std
0.12
2.25
Portability PPG Range
0.29
41.07
Portability Score
80.14
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
58
Clean History Matches
39
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scoreCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference Mean
ELO222.8
PPG1.16
GF0.81
GA-0.74
PPG1.27
PPG2.00
PPG0.80
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches19
Clean-sheet rate24.3%
Failed-to-score rate-0.13
History Matches12
Clean-sheet rate30.2%
Failed-to-score rate-0.17
History Matches19
Goals Mean0.81
Goals Std0.50
Scored 1+ rate12.8%
Scored 2+ rate26.1%
Scored 3+ rate13.9%
Venue Goals Mean0.80
Recent 10 Goals Mean0.90
Recent 10 Goals Std0.54
History Matches19
Conceded Mean-0.74
Conceded Std-0.10
Clean-sheet rate24.3%
Conceded 2+ rate-0.31
Conceded 3+ rate-0.17
Venue Conceded Mean-0.75
Recent 10 Conceded Mean-0.10
Recent 10 Conceded Std-0.28
History Matches19
Result entropy-0.15
Goal Difference Std0.32
Stability score14.51
Recent 10 Result Entropy0.10
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std-0.08
Eligible Matches19
Lead Matches21
Lead Win Rate-0.03
Lead Points Retention0.01
Trailing Matches-7
Non-loss rate28.6%
Trailing Win Rate14.3%
Halftime Coverage Matches19
First Half Goals For Mean0.51
First Half Goals Against Mean-0.37
Second Half Goals For Mean0.30
Second Half Goals Against Mean-0.36
Current Competition Matches0
Competition Season Count3
Eligible Competition Season Count4
Portability PPG Std0.59
Portability PPG Range1.96
Portability Score-39.07
Rest days0.00
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches2
Short Rest Points Per Match-2.33
Normal Rest History Matches23
Normal Rest Points Per Match1.49
Long Rest History Matches-6
Long Rest Points Per Match0.94
Current Team ELO222.8
Current Opponent ELO-222.8
Current ELO Difference445.5
Expected score0.57
History Matches19
Residual Mean0.22
Overperformance16.26
Recent 10 Residual Mean0.05

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Chelsea W

W
Charlton Athletic W0–6Chelsea W1 Nov · away
Pick: Chelsea W 48% · hit
W
Chelsea W2–0Roma W28 Oct · home
Pick: Chelsea W 53% · hit
W
Crystal Palace W1–3Chelsea W25 Oct · away
Pick: Chelsea W 51% · hit
W
Chelsea W6–2Tottenham Hotspur W18 Oct · home
Pick: Chelsea W 69% · hit
W
West Ham W0–3Chelsea W4 Oct · away
Pick: Chelsea W 55% · hit

Everton W

D
Everton W0–0Manchester United W31 Oct · home
Pick: Manchester United W 48% · missed
W
Sheffield United W1–2Everton W28 Oct · away
Pick: Everton W 49% · hit
L
Everton W2–3Aston Villa W25 Oct · home
Pick: Everton W 41% · missed
W
Everton W2–0Newcastle United W21 Oct · home
Pick: Everton W 38% · hit
L
London City Lionesses W2–1Everton W18 Oct · away
Pick: Everton W 40% · missed

About this match

Chelsea W and Everton W meet in FA WSL on Saturday 7 November 2026, kickoff 12:30 UTC. The match is played at Stamford Bridge, London. ScoreProb published its prediction on 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC: Chelsea W win 65.5%, draw 17.2%, Everton W win 17.3%. The pick is Chelsea W win. Over 2.5 goals: 64.3%. Both teams to score: 52.4%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.