ScoreProb
Botola Pro Morocco Round 7 2026

Maghreb Fès vs FUS Rabat

Maghreb Fès Home · Elo 1,598
Sat 7 Nov
UTC
Not started
FUS Rabat Away · Elo 1,532
Venue to be confirmed Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Maghreb Fès win
Maghreb Fès winPick
38.8%
Draw
32.0%
FUS Rabat win
29.2%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Lineups · on the pitch, about an hour before kickoff
Live stats · shots, possession, corners, side by side
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes47.2%
No52.8%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.541.1%
Under 2.558.9%

How much we know

Maghreb Fès history41 matches
FUS Rabat history43 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 9 h ahead
    1 Nov · 08:41 UTC
  2. Re-published 11 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 4 Nov · 07:21 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    7 Nov · 18:00 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 33–39% band (38.8%). Picks in that band won 40.1% of the time, and the model said 37.7% on average, over 2,635 matches.

Why Maghreb Fès are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • Maghreb Fès are rated 66 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,598 against 1,532. On rating alone Maghreb Fès would be expected to take 59% of the points on offer.

  • FUS Rabat score more

    1.24 goals a game over 41 matches for Maghreb Fès, against 1.40 over 43 for FUS Rabat.

  • Maghreb Fès concede fewer

    Maghreb Fès concede 0.71 a game, FUS Rabat 1.09.

  • FUS Rabat games more often go over 2.5 goals

    29% of Maghreb Fès matches, against 44% for FUS Rabat. The model puts this match at 41% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 5 Jul 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Maghreb Fès
FUS Rabat@include('fixtures.partials.crest', ['team' => $away, 'size' => 'sm', 'lazy' => true])
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1598.4
ELO
1532.1
41
ELO · Matches
43
1598.4
Current Team ELO
1532.1
1532.1
Current Opponent ELO
1598.4
66.25
Current ELO Difference
-66.25
0.59
Expected score
0.41
41
History Matches
43
0.12
Residual Mean
0.04
58.15
Overperformance
52.66
0.10
Recent 10 Residual Mean
-0.06
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
2.00
PPG
0.80
1.20
Goals for per game
0.60
0.60
Goals against per game
1.40
60.0%
Win rate
20.0%
10
Matches
10
1.80
PPG
1.10
1.10
Goals for per game
0.70
0.70
Goals against per game
1.00
50.0%
Win rate
20.0%
1.10
Recent 10 Goals Mean
0.70
0.83
Recent 10 Goals Std
0.78
0.70
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.00
0.64
Recent 10 Conceded Std
0.63
0.94
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.94
0.92
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.00
Overall performance9 signals
90
41
Matches
43
1.78
PPG
1.49
46.3%
Win rate
39.5%
39.0%
Draw rate
30.2%
14.6%
Loss rate
30.2%
63.4%
Over 1.5 rate
74.4%
29.3%
Over 2.5 rate
44.2%
14.6%
Over 3.5 rate
20.9%
1.31
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.68
Venue performance10 signals
100
21
Matches
21
1.90
PPG
1.29
57.1%
Win rate
33.3%
19.0%
Draw rate
28.6%
23.8%
Loss rate
38.1%
66.7%
Over 1.5 rate
71.4%
38.1%
Over 2.5 rate
42.9%
23.8%
Over 3.5 rate
28.6%
1.67
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.08
21
History Matches
21
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals for per gameScoring rateBTTS rate
1.24
Goals for per game
1.40
75.6%
Scoring rate
69.8%
43.9%
BTTS rate
51.2%
1.48
Goals for per game
1.43
81.0%
Scoring rate
61.9%
38.1%
BTTS rate
38.1%
41
History Matches
43
1.24
Goals Mean
1.40
1.05
Goals Std
1.28
75.6%
Scored 1+ rate
69.8%
34.1%
Scored 2+ rate
41.9%
7.3%
Scored 3+ rate
18.6%
1.48
Venue Goals Mean
1.43
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals against per gameConceding rate
0.71
Goals against per game
1.09
51.2%
Conceding rate
74.4%
0.81
Goals against per game
1.10
47.6%
Conceding rate
66.7%
41
History Matches
43
0.71
Conceded Mean
1.09
0.83
Conceded Std
0.94
14.6%
Conceded 2+ rate
25.6%
4.9%
Conceded 3+ rate
4.7%
0.81
Venue Conceded Mean
1.10
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Clean-sheet rateFailed-to-score rate
48.8%
Clean-sheet rate
25.6%
24.4%
Failed-to-score rate
30.2%
52.4%
Clean-sheet rate
33.3%
19.0%
Failed-to-score rate
38.1%
48.8%
Clean-sheet rate
25.6%
24.4%
Failed-to-score rate
30.2%
52.4%
Clean-sheet rate
33.3%
19.0%
Failed-to-score rate
38.1%
48.8%
Clean-sheet rate
25.6%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
41
History Matches
43
0.91
Result entropy
0.99
1.31
Goal Difference Std
1.68
8.53
Stability score
0.77
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
41
Eligible Matches
43
13
Lead Matches
16
84.6%
Lead Win Rate
75.0%
0.90
Lead Points Retention
0.81
7
Trailing Matches
11
42.9%
Non-loss rate
27.3%
14.3%
Trailing Win Rate
9.1%
Goal timing5 signals
50
41
Halftime Coverage Matches
43
0.49
First Half Goals For Mean
0.63
0.29
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.49
0.76
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.77
0.41
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.60
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
125.0
Rest days
125.0
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
5
Short Rest History Matches
8
1.60
Short Rest Points Per Match
1.25
17
Normal Rest History Matches
18
1.59
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.83
18
Long Rest History Matches
16
2.11
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.13
Competition & season17 signals
170
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin rateDraw rateLoss rateOver 1.5 rateOver 2.5 rateOver 3.5 rateGoal difference · Standard deviationCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference Mean
0
Matches
0
0
Current Competition Matches
0
3
Competition Season Count
3
2
Eligible Competition Season Count
2
0.28
Portability PPG Std
0.38
0.57
Portability PPG Range
0.77
63.83
Portability Score
56.60
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
41
Clean History Matches
43
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scoreCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference Mean
ELO66.25
PPG0.29
GF-0.15
GA-0.39
PPG0.62
PPG1.20
PPG0.70
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches-2
Clean-sheet rate23.2%
Failed-to-score rate-0.06
History Matches0
Clean-sheet rate19.0%
Failed-to-score rate-0.19
History Matches-2
Goals Mean-0.15
Goals Std-0.22
Scored 1+ rate5.8%
Scored 2+ rate-0.08
Scored 3+ rate-0.11
Venue Goals Mean0.05
Recent 10 Goals Mean0.40
Recent 10 Goals Std0.05
History Matches-2
Conceded Mean-0.39
Conceded Std-0.10
Clean-sheet rate23.2%
Conceded 2+ rate-0.11
Conceded 3+ rate0.2%
Venue Conceded Mean-0.29
Recent 10 Conceded Mean-0.30
Recent 10 Conceded Std0.01
History Matches-2
Result entropy-0.08
Goal Difference Std-0.37
Stability score7.77
Recent 10 Result Entropy0.00
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std-0.09
Eligible Matches-2
Lead Matches-3
Lead Win Rate9.6%
Lead Points Retention0.08
Trailing Matches-4
Non-loss rate15.6%
Trailing Win Rate5.2%
Halftime Coverage Matches-2
First Half Goals For Mean-0.14
First Half Goals Against Mean-0.20
Second Half Goals For Mean-0.01
Second Half Goals Against Mean-0.19
Current Competition Matches0
Competition Season Count0
Eligible Competition Season Count0
Portability PPG Std-0.10
Portability PPG Range-0.20
Portability Score7.23
Rest days0.00
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches-3
Short Rest Points Per Match0.35
Normal Rest History Matches-1
Normal Rest Points Per Match-0.25
Long Rest History Matches2
Long Rest Points Per Match0.99
Current Team ELO66.25
Current Opponent ELO-66.25
Current ELO Difference132.5
Expected score0.19
History Matches-2
Residual Mean0.08
Overperformance5.49
Recent 10 Residual Mean0.16

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Maghreb Fès

L
Widad Témara1–0Maghreb Fès1 Nov · away
Pick: Maghreb Fès 38% · missed
D
Maghreb Fès0–0Renaissance Berkane29 Oct · home
Pick: Renaissance Berkane 48% · missed
W
ASEC Mimosas1–2Maghreb Fès25 Oct · away
Pick: ASEC Mimosas 47% · missed
D
Maghreb Fès1–1ASEC Mimosas18 Oct · home
Pick: ASEC Mimosas 37% · missed
L
Ittihad Tanger2–1Maghreb Fès14 Oct · away
Pick: Draw 36% · missed

FUS Rabat

W
FUS Rabat1–0Hassania Agadir31 Oct · home
Pick: FUS Rabat 42% · hit
W
CR Khemis Zemamra0–1FUS Rabat25 Oct · away
Pick: FUS Rabat 36% · hit
D
FUS Rabat1–1Raja Casablanca13 Oct · home
Pick: Raja Casablanca 38% · missed
Earlier results appear as match history is added

About this match

Maghreb Fès and FUS Rabat meet in Botola Pro on Saturday 7 November 2026, kickoff 18:00 UTC. ScoreProb published its prediction on 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC: Maghreb Fès win 38.8%, draw 32.0%, FUS Rabat win 29.2%. The pick is Maghreb Fès win. Over 2.5 goals: 41.1%. Both teams to score: 47.2%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.