ScoreProb
2. liga Slovakia Round 16 2026

Malženice vs Šamorín

Malženice Home · Elo 1,479
Sat 7 Nov
UTC
Not started
Šamorín Away · Elo 1,562
Obecny futbalovy stadion Malzenice Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 4 Nov, 07:21 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Šamorín win
Malženice win
28.6%
Draw
22.4%
Šamorín winPick
49.0%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Lineups · on the pitch, about an hour before kickoff
Live stats · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes58.3%
No41.7%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.557.8%
Under 2.542.2%

How much we know

Malženice history63 matches
Šamorín history62 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 3 d 2 h ahead
    4 Nov · 07:21 UTC
  2. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    7 Nov · 10:00 UTC
  3. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  4. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 40–49% band (49.0%). Picks in that band won 45.4% of the time, and the model said 44.8% on average, over 6,162 matches.

Why Šamorín are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • Šamorín are rated 83 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,562 against 1,479. On rating alone Šamorín would be expected to take 62% of the points on offer.

  • Šamorín score more

    1.30 goals a game over 63 matches for Malženice, against 1.53 over 62 for Šamorín.

  • Šamorín concede fewer

    Malženice concede 1.65 a game, Šamorín 1.40.

  • Both teams play a similar number of high-scoring games

    59% of Malženice matches, against 53% for Šamorín. The model puts this match at 58% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 23 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Malženice
Šamorín
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1479.0
ELO
1561.9
63
ELO · Matches
62
1479.0
Current Team ELO
1561.9
1561.9
Current Opponent ELO
1479.0
-82.85
Current ELO Difference
82.85
0.38
Expected score
0.62
63
History Matches
62
-0.03
Residual Mean
0.06
47.48
Overperformance
54.30
-0.17
Recent 10 Residual Mean
0.24
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
0.80
PPG
2.40
1.60
Goals for per game
2.00
1.80
Goals against per game
1.00
20.0%
Win rate
80.0%
10
Matches
10
0.80
PPG
2.20
1.40
Goals for per game
2.30
1.50
Goals against per game
1.00
20.0%
Win rate
70.0%
1.40
Recent 10 Goals Mean
2.30
1.36
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.95
1.50
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.00
0.67
Recent 10 Conceded Std
0.77
0.86
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.73
1.70
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
2.45
Overall performance9 signals
90
63
Matches
62
1.13
PPG
1.45
30.2%
Win rate
41.9%
22.2%
Draw rate
19.4%
47.6%
Loss rate
38.7%
77.8%
Over 1.5 rate
85.5%
58.7%
Over 2.5 rate
53.2%
34.9%
Over 3.5 rate
29.0%
1.83
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.84
Venue performance10 signals
100
25
Matches
29
1.72
PPG
1.55
52.0%
Win rate
48.3%
16.0%
Draw rate
10.3%
32.0%
Loss rate
41.4%
76.0%
Over 1.5 rate
86.2%
68.0%
Over 2.5 rate
69.0%
32.0%
Over 3.5 rate
41.4%
1.89
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.64
25
History Matches
29
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
1.30
Goals for per game
1.53
73.0%
Scoring rate
75.8%
60.3%
BTTS rate
59.7%
1.56
Goals for per game
1.76
80.0%
Scoring rate
82.8%
60.0%
BTTS rate
72.4%
1.40
Goals for per game
2.20
80.0%
Scoring rate
80.0%
80.0%
BTTS rate
60.0%
63
History Matches
62
1.30
Goals Mean
1.53
1.18
Goals Std
1.38
73.0%
Scored 1+ rate
75.8%
34.9%
Scored 2+ rate
41.9%
14.3%
Scored 3+ rate
22.6%
1.56
Venue Goals Mean
1.76
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
1.65
Goals against per game
1.40
77.8%
Conceding rate
82.3%
1.40
Goals against per game
1.59
68.0%
Conceding rate
89.7%
1.80
Goals against per game
1.00
100.0%
Conceding rate
80.0%
63
History Matches
62
1.65
Conceded Mean
1.40
1.38
Conceded Std
1.04
47.6%
Conceded 2+ rate
40.3%
23.8%
Conceded 3+ rate
12.9%
1.40
Venue Conceded Mean
1.59
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
22.2%
Clean-sheet rate
17.7%
27.0%
Failed-to-score rate
24.2%
32.0%
Clean-sheet rate
10.3%
20.0%
Failed-to-score rate
17.2%
0.0%
Clean-sheet rate
20.0%
20.0%
Failed-to-score rate
20.0%
22.2%
Clean-sheet rate
17.7%
27.0%
Failed-to-score rate
24.2%
32.0%
Clean-sheet rate
10.3%
20.0%
Failed-to-score rate
17.2%
22.2%
Clean-sheet rate
17.7%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
63
History Matches
62
0.95
Result entropy
0.96
1.83
Goal Difference Std
1.84
4.51
Stability score
4.45
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
60
Eligible Matches
62
15
Lead Matches
21
86.7%
Lead Win Rate
71.4%
0.89
Lead Points Retention
0.76
25
Trailing Matches
24
20.0%
Non-loss rate
29.2%
4.0%
Trailing Win Rate
12.5%
Goal timing5 signals
50
60
Halftime Coverage Matches
62
0.50
First Half Goals For Mean
0.69
0.77
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.66
0.75
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.84
0.83
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.74
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
76.06
Rest days
76.81
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
2
Short Rest History Matches
5
1.50
Short Rest Points Per Match
1.80
40
Normal Rest History Matches
35
1.18
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.31
20
Long Rest History Matches
21
1.05
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.67
Competition & season17 signals
170
5
Matches
5
0.80
PPG
2.40
20.0%
Win rate
80.0%
20.0%
Draw rate
0.0%
60.0%
Loss rate
20.0%
100.0%
Over 1.5 rate
100.0%
60.0%
Over 2.5 rate
60.0%
20.0%
Over 3.5 rate
40.0%
1.36
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.72
5
Current Competition Matches
5
0.80
Current Competition PPG
2.40
-0.40
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
1.20
8
Competition Season Count
8
6
Eligible Competition Season Count
6
0.47
Portability PPG Std
0.59
1.57
Portability PPG Range
1.40
51.77
Portability Score
45.99
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
63
Clean History Matches
62
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
ELO-82.85
PPG-0.32
GF-0.23
GA0.25
PPG-1.60
PPG0.17
PPG-1.60
PPG-1.40
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches1
Clean-sheet rate4.5%
Failed-to-score rate2.8%
History Matches-4
Clean-sheet rate21.7%
Failed-to-score rate2.8%
History Matches1
Goals Mean-0.23
Goals Std-0.20
Scored 1+ rate-0.03
Scored 2+ rate-0.07
Scored 3+ rate-0.08
Venue Goals Mean-0.20
Recent 10 Goals Mean-0.90
Recent 10 Goals Std-0.60
History Matches1
Conceded Mean0.25
Conceded Std0.34
Clean-sheet rate4.5%
Conceded 2+ rate7.3%
Conceded 3+ rate10.9%
Venue Conceded Mean-0.19
Recent 10 Conceded Mean0.50
Recent 10 Conceded Std-0.10
History Matches1
Result entropy0.00
Goal Difference Std-0.02
Stability score0.06
Recent 10 Result Entropy0.14
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std-0.75
Eligible Matches-2
Lead Matches-6
Lead Win Rate15.2%
Lead Points Retention0.13
Trailing Matches1
Non-loss rate-0.09
Trailing Win Rate-0.09
Halftime Coverage Matches-2
First Half Goals For Mean-0.19
First Half Goals Against Mean0.11
Second Half Goals For Mean-0.09
Second Half Goals Against Mean0.09
Current Competition Matches0
Current Competition PPG-1.60
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean-1.60
Competition Season Count0
Eligible Competition Season Count0
Portability PPG Std-0.12
Portability PPG Range0.17
Portability Score5.78
Rest days-0.75
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches-3
Short Rest Points Per Match-0.30
Normal Rest History Matches5
Normal Rest Points Per Match-0.14
Long Rest History Matches-1
Long Rest Points Per Match-0.62
Current Team ELO-82.85
Current Opponent ELO82.85
Current ELO Difference-165.7
Expected score-0.23
History Matches1
Residual Mean-0.09
Overperformance-6.82
Recent 10 Residual Mean-0.42

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Malženice

D
Humenné2–2Malženice31 Oct · away
Pick: Humenné 42% · missed
W
Malženice3–0Zlaté Moravce25 Oct · home
Pick: Malženice 40% · hit
D
Pohronie0–0Malženice16 Oct · away
Pick: Pohronie 51% · missed
D
Petržalka1–1Malženice4 Oct · away
Pick: Petržalka 65% · missed
W
Malženice3–1MFK Bytča31 Aug · home
Pick: Malženice 60% · hit

Šamorín

D
Zlaté Moravce0–0Šamorín31 Oct · away
Pick: Šamorín 47% · missed
W
Šamorín2–1Pohronie24 Oct · home
Pick: Šamorín 53% · hit
D
Inter Bratislava2–2Šamorín17 Oct · away
Pick: Inter Bratislava 41% · missed
W
Šamorín2–1Humenné14 Oct · home
Pick: Šamorín 48% · hit
L
Liptovský Mikuláš2–0Šamorín5 Oct · away
Pick: Liptovský Mikuláš 48% · hit

About this match

Malženice and Šamorín meet in 2. liga on Saturday 7 November 2026, kickoff 10:00 UTC. The match is played at Obecny futbalovy stadion Malzenice. ScoreProb published its prediction on 4 Nov, 07:21 UTC: Malženice win 28.6%, draw 22.4%, Šamorín win 49.0%. The pick is Šamorín win. Over 2.5 goals: 57.8%. Both teams to score: 58.3%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.