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Second League Bulgaria Round 16 2026

Marek vs Chernomorets 1919 Burgas

Marek Home · Elo 1,510
Sat 14 Nov
UTC
Not started
Chernomorets 1919 Burgas Away · Elo 1,526
Stadion Bonchuk, Dupnitsa Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 8 Nov, 08:45 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Marek win
Marek winPick
37.7%
Draw
30.7%
Chernomorets 1919 Burgas win
31.6%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Lineups · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Live stats · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes47.2%
No52.8%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.543.8%
Under 2.556.2%

How much we know

Marek history65 matches
Chernomorets 1919 Burgas history65 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 3 h ahead
    8 Nov · 08:45 UTC
  2. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    14 Nov · 12:30 UTC
  3. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  4. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 16,809 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 39.9% · said 37.7% · n 2,949
40–49% Won 45.3% · said 44.8% · n 6,860
50–59% Won 55.6% · said 54.4% · n 4,146
60–69% Won 63.9% · said 64.4% · n 2,031
70–79% Won 76.5% · said 73.9% · n 646
80%+ Won 83.1% · said 84.5% · n 177
This pick sits in the 33–39% band (37.7%). Picks in that band won 39.9% of the time, and the model said 37.7% on average, over 2,949 matches.

Why Marek are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • The Elo ratings are level

    Elo 1,510 against 1,526. On rating alone the teams are close to even.

  • Chernomorets 1919 Burgas score far more

    0.98 goals a game over 65 matches for Marek, against 1.95 over 65 for Chernomorets 1919 Burgas.

  • Chernomorets 1919 Burgas concede fewer

    Marek concede 1.20 a game, Chernomorets 1919 Burgas 0.98.

  • Chernomorets 1919 Burgas games more often go over 2.5 goals

    37% of Marek matches, against 51% for Chernomorets 1919 Burgas. The model puts this match at 44% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 24 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Marek
Chernomorets 1919 Burgas@include('fixtures.partials.crest', ['team' => $away, 'size' => 'sm', 'lazy' => true])
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1510.0
ELO
1526.2
65
ELO · Matches
65
1510.0
Current Team ELO
1526.2
1526.2
Current Opponent ELO
1510.0
-16.26
Current ELO Difference
16.26
0.48
Expected score
0.52
65
History Matches
65
-0.01
Residual Mean
0.01
49.47
Overperformance
51.05
-0.12
Recent 10 Residual Mean
-0.28
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
1.20
PPG
1.00
1.20
Goals for per game
0.60
1.20
Goals against per game
0.80
40.0%
Win rate
20.0%
10
Matches
10
1.20
PPG
0.80
0.90
Goals for per game
0.70
1.30
Goals against per game
1.70
40.0%
Win rate
20.0%
0.90
Recent 10 Goals Mean
0.70
1.22
Recent 10 Goals Std
0.64
1.30
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.70
1.10
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.35
0.61
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.86
1.74
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.55
Overall performance9 signals
90
65
Matches
65
1.32
PPG
1.72
35.4%
Win rate
49.2%
26.2%
Draw rate
24.6%
38.5%
Loss rate
26.2%
60.0%
Over 1.5 rate
75.4%
36.9%
Over 2.5 rate
50.8%
20.0%
Over 3.5 rate
32.3%
1.62
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.17
Venue performance10 signals
100
27
Matches
34
1.81
PPG
1.47
51.9%
Win rate
41.2%
25.9%
Draw rate
23.5%
22.2%
Loss rate
35.3%
55.6%
Over 1.5 rate
76.5%
33.3%
Over 2.5 rate
55.9%
18.5%
Over 3.5 rate
32.4%
1.31
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.13
27
History Matches
34
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
0.98
Goals for per game
1.95
64.6%
Scoring rate
75.4%
36.9%
BTTS rate
46.2%
1.26
Goals for per game
1.76
81.5%
Scoring rate
70.6%
44.4%
BTTS rate
50.0%
1.20
Goals for per game
0.60
60.0%
Scoring rate
60.0%
40.0%
BTTS rate
40.0%
65
History Matches
65
0.98
Goals Mean
1.95
0.98
Goals Std
1.81
64.6%
Scored 1+ rate
75.4%
21.5%
Scored 2+ rate
49.2%
10.8%
Scored 3+ rate
33.8%
1.26
Venue Goals Mean
1.76
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
1.20
Goals against per game
0.98
61.5%
Conceding rate
61.5%
0.85
Goals against per game
1.21
51.9%
Conceding rate
70.6%
1.20
Goals against per game
0.80
80.0%
Conceding rate
80.0%
65
History Matches
65
1.20
Conceded Mean
0.98
1.23
Conceded Std
1.05
35.4%
Conceded 2+ rate
23.1%
16.9%
Conceded 3+ rate
10.8%
0.85
Venue Conceded Mean
1.21
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
38.5%
Clean-sheet rate
38.5%
35.4%
Failed-to-score rate
24.6%
48.1%
Clean-sheet rate
29.4%
18.5%
Failed-to-score rate
29.4%
20.0%
Clean-sheet rate
20.0%
40.0%
Failed-to-score rate
40.0%
38.5%
Clean-sheet rate
38.5%
35.4%
Failed-to-score rate
24.6%
48.1%
Clean-sheet rate
29.4%
18.5%
Failed-to-score rate
29.4%
38.5%
Clean-sheet rate
38.5%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
65
History Matches
65
0.99
Result entropy
0.95
1.62
Goal Difference Std
2.17
1.16
Stability score
4.91
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
65
Eligible Matches
49
16
Lead Matches
18
81.3%
Lead Win Rate
77.8%
0.88
Lead Points Retention
0.85
19
Trailing Matches
10
26.3%
Non-loss rate
10.0%
0.0%
Trailing Win Rate
0.0%
Goal timing5 signals
50
65
Halftime Coverage Matches
49
0.46
First Half Goals For Mean
0.69
0.54
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.43
0.52
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.63
0.66
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.57
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
82.90
Rest days
82.81
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
1
Short Rest History Matches
2
1.00
Short Rest Points Per Match
3.00
35
Normal Rest History Matches
39
1.20
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.95
28
Long Rest History Matches
23
1.43
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.17
Competition & season17 signals
170
5
Matches
5
1.20
PPG
1.00
40.0%
Win rate
20.0%
0.0%
Draw rate
40.0%
60.0%
Loss rate
40.0%
40.0%
Over 1.5 rate
40.0%
40.0%
Over 2.5 rate
0.0%
20.0%
Over 3.5 rate
0.0%
1.26
Goal difference · Standard deviation
0.75
5
Current Competition Matches
5
1.20
Current Competition PPG
1.00
0.00
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
-0.20
6
Competition Season Count
6
4
Eligible Competition Season Count
5
0.18
Portability PPG Std
0.83
0.46
Portability PPG Range
2.43
73.95
Portability Score
37.52
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
65
Clean History Matches
65
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
ELO-16.26
PPG-0.40
GF-0.97
GA0.22
PPG0.20
PPG0.34
PPG0.20
PPG0.40
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches0
Clean-sheet rate0.0%
Failed-to-score rate10.8%
History Matches-7
Clean-sheet rate18.7%
Failed-to-score rate-0.11
History Matches0
Goals Mean-0.97
Goals Std-0.83
Scored 1+ rate-0.11
Scored 2+ rate-0.28
Scored 3+ rate-0.23
Venue Goals Mean-0.51
Recent 10 Goals Mean0.20
Recent 10 Goals Std0.58
History Matches0
Conceded Mean0.22
Conceded Std0.19
Clean-sheet rate0.0%
Conceded 2+ rate12.3%
Conceded 3+ rate6.2%
Venue Conceded Mean-0.35
Recent 10 Conceded Mean-0.40
Recent 10 Conceded Std-0.25
History Matches0
Result entropy0.04
Goal Difference Std-0.55
Stability score-3.75
Recent 10 Result Entropy-0.25
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std0.19
Eligible Matches16
Lead Matches-2
Lead Win Rate3.5%
Lead Points Retention0.02
Trailing Matches9
Non-loss rate16.3%
Trailing Win Rate0.0%
Halftime Coverage Matches16
First Half Goals For Mean-0.23
First Half Goals Against Mean0.11
Second Half Goals For Mean-0.11
Second Half Goals Against Mean0.09
Current Competition Matches0
Current Competition PPG0.20
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean0.20
Competition Season Count0
Eligible Competition Season Count-1
Portability PPG Std-0.66
Portability PPG Range-1.97
Portability Score36.43
Rest days0.08
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches-1
Short Rest Points Per Match-2.00
Normal Rest History Matches-4
Normal Rest Points Per Match-0.75
Long Rest History Matches5
Long Rest Points Per Match0.25
Current Team ELO-16.26
Current Opponent ELO16.26
Current ELO Difference-32.52
Expected score-0.05
History Matches0
Residual Mean-0.02
Overperformance-1.59
Recent 10 Residual Mean0.15

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Marek

D
Vihren1–1Marek23 Oct · away
Pick: Vihren 54% · missed
L
Marek0–3Cherno More Varna17 Oct · home
Pick: Cherno More Varna 42% · hit
W
Chavdar Troyan0–4Marek4 Oct · away
Pick: Draw 37% · missed
D
Sportist Svoge0–0Marek29 Aug · away
Pick: Sportist Svoge 47% · missed
Earlier results appear as match history is added

Chernomorets 1919 Burgas

W
Nesebar1–2Chernomorets 1919 Burgas31 Oct · away
Pick: Nesebar 53% · missed
D
Chernomorets 1919 Burgas1–1Sportist Svoge23 Oct · home
Pick: Chernomorets 1919 Burgas 50% · missed
L
Chernomorets 1919 Burgas0–4Botev Plovdiv18 Oct · home
Pick: Botev Plovdiv 43% · hit
W
Volov Shumen0–2Chernomorets 1919 Burgas4 Oct · away
Pick: Volov Shumen 45% · missed
W
Pirin Blagoevgrad0–3Chernomorets 1919 Burgas29 Aug · away
Pick: Chernomorets 1919 Burgas 57% · hit

About this match

Marek and Chernomorets 1919 Burgas meet in Second League on Saturday 14 November 2026, kickoff 12:30 UTC. The match is played at Stadion Bonchuk, Dupnitsa. ScoreProb published its prediction on 8 Nov, 08:45 UTC: Marek win 37.7%, draw 30.7%, Chernomorets 1919 Burgas win 31.6%. The pick is Marek win. Over 2.5 goals: 43.8%. Both teams to score: 47.2%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.