ScoreProb
Third League - Southeast Bulgaria Southeast - 14 2026

Maritsa Plovdiv vs Maritsa Milevo

Maritsa Plovdiv Home · Elo 1,578
Sat 7 Nov
UTC
Not started
Maritsa Milevo Away · Elo 1,563
Maritsa stadium, Plovdiv Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Maritsa Plovdiv win
Maritsa Plovdiv winPick
42.9%
Draw
24.3%
Maritsa Milevo win
32.8%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Lineups · not provided for this competition by our data source
Live score and events · the live score only: events are not provided for this competition by our data source
Live stats · not provided for this competition by our data source
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes48.4%
No51.6%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.551.5%
Under 2.548.5%

How much we know

Maritsa Plovdiv history54 matches
Maritsa Milevo history56 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 3 h ahead
    1 Nov · 08:41 UTC
  2. Re-published 11 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 4 Nov · 07:21 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    7 Nov · 12:30 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 40–49% band (42.9%). Picks in that band won 45.4% of the time, and the model said 44.8% on average, over 6,162 matches.

Why Maritsa Plovdiv are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • The Elo ratings are level

    Elo 1,578 against 1,563. On rating alone the teams are close to even.

  • Maritsa Plovdiv score more

    2.26 goals a game over 54 matches for Maritsa Plovdiv, against 1.48 over 56 for Maritsa Milevo.

  • Defences are close

    Maritsa Plovdiv concede 0.96 a game, Maritsa Milevo 0.96.

  • Maritsa Plovdiv games more often go over 2.5 goals

    63% of Maritsa Plovdiv matches, against 48% for Maritsa Milevo. The model puts this match at 52% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 23 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Maritsa Plovdiv
Maritsa Milevo
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1578.3
ELO
1563.1
54
ELO · Matches
56
1578.3
Current Team ELO
1563.1
1563.1
Current Opponent ELO
1578.3
15.18
Current ELO Difference
-15.18
0.52
Expected score
0.48
54
History Matches
56
0.07
Residual Mean
0.05
55.01
Overperformance
53.54
-0.28
Recent 10 Residual Mean
0.03
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
0.80
PPG
2.40
2.20
Goals for per game
1.20
1.80
Goals against per game
0.60
20.0%
Win rate
80.0%
10
Matches
10
0.90
PPG
1.90
1.50
Goals for per game
2.10
1.70
Goals against per game
1.00
20.0%
Win rate
60.0%
1.50
Recent 10 Goals Mean
2.10
2.58
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.92
1.70
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.00
1.49
Recent 10 Conceded Std
0.89
0.94
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.82
3.28
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
2.30
Overall performance9 signals
90
54
Matches
56
2.06
PPG
1.66
63.0%
Win rate
46.4%
16.7%
Draw rate
26.8%
20.4%
Loss rate
26.8%
83.3%
Over 1.5 rate
66.1%
63.0%
Over 2.5 rate
48.2%
37.0%
Over 3.5 rate
25.0%
2.50
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.93
Venue performance10 signals
100
27
Matches
30
2.44
PPG
1.33
77.8%
Win rate
36.7%
11.1%
Draw rate
23.3%
11.1%
Loss rate
40.0%
92.6%
Over 1.5 rate
63.3%
74.1%
Over 2.5 rate
50.0%
48.1%
Over 3.5 rate
23.3%
2.78
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.89
27
History Matches
30
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
2.26
Goals for per game
1.48
81.5%
Scoring rate
75.0%
46.3%
BTTS rate
44.6%
3.04
Goals for per game
1.13
85.2%
Scoring rate
70.0%
37.0%
BTTS rate
40.0%
0.33
Goals for per game
0.67
33.3%
Scoring rate
66.7%
33.3%
BTTS rate
0.0%
54
History Matches
56
2.26
Goals Mean
1.48
1.95
Goals Std
1.44
81.5%
Scored 1+ rate
75.0%
61.1%
Scored 2+ rate
37.5%
31.5%
Scored 3+ rate
17.9%
3.04
Venue Goals Mean
1.13
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
0.96
Goals against per game
0.96
59.3%
Conceding rate
58.9%
0.78
Goals against per game
1.23
44.4%
Conceding rate
63.3%
1.67
Goals against per game
0.67
66.7%
Conceding rate
33.3%
54
History Matches
56
0.96
Conceded Mean
0.96
1.05
Conceded Std
1.07
25.9%
Conceded 2+ rate
25.0%
7.4%
Conceded 3+ rate
8.9%
0.78
Venue Conceded Mean
1.23
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
40.7%
Clean-sheet rate
41.1%
18.5%
Failed-to-score rate
25.0%
55.6%
Clean-sheet rate
36.7%
14.8%
Failed-to-score rate
30.0%
33.3%
Clean-sheet rate
66.7%
66.7%
Failed-to-score rate
33.3%
40.7%
Clean-sheet rate
41.1%
18.5%
Failed-to-score rate
25.0%
55.6%
Clean-sheet rate
36.7%
14.8%
Failed-to-score rate
30.0%
40.7%
Clean-sheet rate
41.1%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
54
History Matches
56
0.83
Result entropy
0.97
2.50
Goal Difference Std
1.93
16.80
Stability score
3.34
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
20
Eligible Matches
15
5
Lead Matches
2
100.0%
Lead Win Rate
100.0%
1.00
Lead Points Retention
1.00
4
Trailing Matches
2
0.0%
Non-loss rate
50.0%
0.0%
Trailing Win Rate
0.0%
Goal timing5 signals
50
20
Halftime Coverage Matches
15
0.90
First Half Goals For Mean
0.47
0.55
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.40
0.80
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.33
0.35
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.40
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
76.90
Rest days
76.90
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
5
Short Rest History Matches
5
2.00
Short Rest Points Per Match
1.40
33
Normal Rest History Matches
32
2.18
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.66
15
Long Rest History Matches
18
1.73
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.78
Competition & season17 signals
170
3
Matches
3
0.33
PPG
2.00
0.0%
Win rate
66.7%
33.3%
Draw rate
0.0%
66.7%
Loss rate
33.3%
66.7%
Over 1.5 rate
33.3%
66.7%
Over 2.5 rate
0.0%
0.0%
Over 3.5 rate
0.0%
1.25
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.41
3
Current Competition Matches
3
0.33
Current Competition PPG
2.00
-1.33
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
0.00
4
Competition Season Count
4
3
Eligible Competition Season Count
3
0.95
Portability PPG Std
0.16
2.23
Portability PPG Range
0.38
34.47
Portability Score
75.36
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
54
Clean History Matches
56
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
ELO15.18
PPG0.39
GF0.78
GA0.00
PPG-1.67
PPG1.11
PPG-1.60
PPG-1.00
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches-2
Clean-sheet rate0.00
Failed-to-score rate-0.06
History Matches-3
Clean-sheet rate18.9%
Failed-to-score rate-0.15
History Matches-2
Goals Mean0.78
Goals Std0.52
Scored 1+ rate6.5%
Scored 2+ rate23.6%
Scored 3+ rate13.6%
Venue Goals Mean1.90
Recent 10 Goals Mean-0.60
Recent 10 Goals Std0.66
History Matches-2
Conceded Mean0.00
Conceded Std-0.02
Clean-sheet rate0.00
Conceded 2+ rate0.9%
Conceded 3+ rate-0.02
Venue Conceded Mean-0.46
Recent 10 Conceded Mean0.70
Recent 10 Conceded Std0.59
History Matches-2
Result entropy-0.13
Goal Difference Std0.57
Stability score13.46
Recent 10 Result Entropy0.12
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std0.98
Eligible Matches5
Lead Matches3
Lead Win Rate0.0%
Lead Points Retention0.00
Trailing Matches2
Non-loss rate-0.50
Trailing Win Rate0.0%
Halftime Coverage Matches5
First Half Goals For Mean0.43
First Half Goals Against Mean0.15
Second Half Goals For Mean0.47
Second Half Goals Against Mean-0.05
Current Competition Matches0
Current Competition PPG-1.67
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean-1.33
Competition Season Count0
Eligible Competition Season Count0
Portability PPG Std0.79
Portability PPG Range1.85
Portability Score-40.89
Rest days0.00
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches0
Short Rest Points Per Match0.60
Normal Rest History Matches1
Normal Rest Points Per Match0.53
Long Rest History Matches-3
Long Rest Points Per Match-0.04
Current Team ELO15.18
Current Opponent ELO-15.18
Current ELO Difference30.36
Expected score0.04
History Matches-2
Residual Mean0.02
Overperformance1.46
Recent 10 Residual Mean-0.31

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Maritsa Plovdiv

W
Sekirovo Rakovski0–3Maritsa Plovdiv31 Oct · away
Pick: Sekirovo Rakovski 46% · missed
W
Maritsa Plovdiv2–1Botev Plovdiv II24 Oct · home
Pick: Maritsa Plovdiv 60% · hit
L
Rozova dolina2–0Maritsa Plovdiv29 Aug · away
Pick: Rozova dolina 54% · hit
Earlier results appear as match history is added

Maritsa Milevo

W
Maritsa Milevo2–0Rozova dolina31 Oct · home
Pick: Maritsa Milevo 43% · hit
D
Sayana Haskovo2–2Maritsa Milevo24 Oct · away
Pick: Sayana Haskovo 51% · missed
W
Maritsa Milevo2–1Yambol 191517 Oct · home
Pick: Yambol 1915 40% · missed
Earlier results appear as match history is added

About this match

Maritsa Plovdiv and Maritsa Milevo meet in Third League - Southeast on Saturday 7 November 2026, kickoff 12:30 UTC. The match is played at Maritsa stadium, Plovdiv. ScoreProb published its prediction on 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC: Maritsa Plovdiv win 42.9%, draw 24.3%, Maritsa Milevo win 32.8%. The pick is Maritsa Plovdiv win. Over 2.5 goals: 51.5%. Both teams to score: 48.4%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.