ScoreProb
Third League - Southeast Bulgaria Southeast - 14 2026

Dimitrovgrad vs Atletik Kuklen

Dimitrovgrad Home · Elo 1,422
Sat 7 Nov
UTC
Not started
Atletik Kuklen Away · Elo 1,454
Venue to be confirmed Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Dimitrovgrad win
Dimitrovgrad winPick
49.3%
Draw
21.7%
Atletik Kuklen win
29.0%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Lineups · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Live stats · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes60.4%
No39.6%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.564.1%
Under 2.535.9%

How much we know

Dimitrovgrad history55 matches
Atletik Kuklen history55 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 3 h ahead
    1 Nov · 08:41 UTC
  2. Re-published 11 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 4 Nov · 07:21 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    7 Nov · 12:30 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 40–49% band (49.3%). Picks in that band won 45.4% of the time, and the model said 44.8% on average, over 6,162 matches.

Why Dimitrovgrad are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • Atletik Kuklen are rated 33 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,454 against 1,422. On rating alone Atletik Kuklen would be expected to take 55% of the points on offer.

  • Scoring rates are level

    1.31 goals a game over 55 matches for Dimitrovgrad, against 1.22 over 55 for Atletik Kuklen.

  • Defences are close

    Dimitrovgrad concede 1.84 a game, Atletik Kuklen 2.04.

  • Atletik Kuklen games more often go over 2.5 goals

    56% of Dimitrovgrad matches, against 65% for Atletik Kuklen. The model puts this match at 64% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 23 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Dimitrovgrad
Atletik Kuklen
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1421.6
ELO
1454.2
55
ELO · Matches
55
1421.6
Current Team ELO
1454.2
1454.2
Current Opponent ELO
1421.6
-32.58
Current ELO Difference
32.58
0.45
Expected score
0.55
55
History Matches
55
-0.07
Residual Mean
-0.04
45.19
Overperformance
46.94
-0.08
Recent 10 Residual Mean
-0.06
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
0.60
PPG
1.80
1.60
Goals for per game
1.60
2.60
Goals against per game
1.40
20.0%
Win rate
60.0%
10
Matches
10
1.00
PPG
1.20
1.60
Goals for per game
1.40
2.10
Goals against per game
2.10
30.0%
Win rate
40.0%
1.60
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.40
1.20
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.36
2.10
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
2.10
1.14
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.45
0.82
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.61
1.57
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
2.10
Overall performance9 signals
90
55
Matches
55
1.11
PPG
1.18
32.7%
Win rate
36.4%
12.7%
Draw rate
9.1%
54.5%
Loss rate
54.5%
78.2%
Over 1.5 rate
80.0%
56.4%
Over 2.5 rate
65.5%
36.4%
Over 3.5 rate
47.3%
2.14
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.24
Venue performance10 signals
100
29
Matches
28
1.66
PPG
0.89
51.7%
Win rate
25.0%
10.3%
Draw rate
14.3%
37.9%
Loss rate
60.7%
82.8%
Over 1.5 rate
78.6%
62.1%
Over 2.5 rate
60.7%
44.8%
Over 3.5 rate
53.6%
2.04
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.23
29
History Matches
28
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
1.31
Goals for per game
1.22
56.4%
Scoring rate
63.6%
43.6%
BTTS rate
52.7%
1.79
Goals for per game
0.93
65.5%
Scoring rate
57.1%
48.3%
BTTS rate
46.4%
2.00
Goals for per game
1.00
66.7%
Scoring rate
66.7%
66.7%
BTTS rate
33.3%
55
History Matches
55
1.31
Goals Mean
1.22
1.44
Goals Std
1.19
56.4%
Scored 1+ rate
63.6%
41.8%
Scored 2+ rate
36.4%
21.8%
Scored 3+ rate
18.2%
1.79
Venue Goals Mean
0.93
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
1.84
Goals against per game
2.04
81.8%
Conceding rate
87.3%
1.59
Goals against per game
2.46
79.3%
Conceding rate
89.3%
2.00
Goals against per game
1.33
100.0%
Conceding rate
66.7%
55
History Matches
55
1.84
Conceded Mean
2.04
1.51
Conceded Std
1.56
50.9%
Conceded 2+ rate
52.7%
27.3%
Conceded 3+ rate
29.1%
1.59
Venue Conceded Mean
2.46
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
18.2%
Clean-sheet rate
12.7%
43.6%
Failed-to-score rate
36.4%
20.7%
Clean-sheet rate
10.7%
34.5%
Failed-to-score rate
42.9%
0.0%
Clean-sheet rate
33.3%
33.3%
Failed-to-score rate
33.3%
18.2%
Clean-sheet rate
12.7%
43.6%
Failed-to-score rate
36.4%
20.7%
Clean-sheet rate
10.7%
34.5%
Failed-to-score rate
42.9%
18.2%
Clean-sheet rate
12.7%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
55
History Matches
55
0.87
Result entropy
0.83
2.14
Goal Difference Std
2.24
12.75
Stability score
16.58
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
18
Eligible Matches
15
2
Lead Matches
5
100.0%
Lead Win Rate
80.0%
1.00
Lead Points Retention
0.80
5
Trailing Matches
3
0.0%
Non-loss rate
33.3%
0.0%
Trailing Win Rate
33.3%
Goal timing5 signals
50
18
Halftime Coverage Matches
15
0.44
First Half Goals For Mean
0.80
1.00
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.60
0.89
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.73
1.11
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.80
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
76.90
Rest days
76.90
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
5
Short Rest History Matches
6
1.20
Short Rest Points Per Match
1.50
37
Normal Rest History Matches
32
1.11
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.09
12
Long Rest History Matches
16
1.08
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.31
Competition & season17 signals
170
3
Matches
3
1.00
PPG
1.00
33.3%
Win rate
33.3%
0.0%
Draw rate
0.0%
66.7%
Loss rate
66.7%
66.7%
Over 1.5 rate
66.7%
66.7%
Over 2.5 rate
33.3%
66.7%
Over 3.5 rate
33.3%
1.41
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.70
3
Current Competition Matches
3
1.00
Current Competition PPG
1.00
0.00
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
-0.33
3
Competition Season Count
3
3
Eligible Competition Season Count
3
0.15
Portability PPG Std
0.10
0.32
Portability PPG Range
0.24
77.06
Portability Score
83.88
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
55
Clean History Matches
55
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
ELO-32.58
PPG-0.07
GF0.09
GA-0.20
PPG0.00
PPG0.76
PPG-1.20
PPG-0.20
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches0
Clean-sheet rate5.5%
Failed-to-score rate7.3%
History Matches1
Clean-sheet rate10.0%
Failed-to-score rate-0.08
History Matches0
Goals Mean0.09
Goals Std0.25
Scored 1+ rate-0.07
Scored 2+ rate5.5%
Scored 3+ rate3.6%
Venue Goals Mean0.86
Recent 10 Goals Mean0.20
Recent 10 Goals Std-0.16
History Matches0
Conceded Mean-0.20
Conceded Std-0.05
Clean-sheet rate5.5%
Conceded 2+ rate-0.02
Conceded 3+ rate-0.02
Venue Conceded Mean-0.88
Recent 10 Conceded Mean0.00
Recent 10 Conceded Std-0.31
History Matches0
Result entropy0.04
Goal Difference Std-0.10
Stability score-3.83
Recent 10 Result Entropy0.20
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std-0.53
Eligible Matches3
Lead Matches-3
Lead Win Rate20.0%
Lead Points Retention0.20
Trailing Matches2
Non-loss rate-0.33
Trailing Win Rate-0.33
Halftime Coverage Matches3
First Half Goals For Mean-0.36
First Half Goals Against Mean0.40
Second Half Goals For Mean0.16
Second Half Goals Against Mean0.31
Current Competition Matches0
Current Competition PPG0.00
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean0.33
Competition Season Count0
Eligible Competition Season Count0
Portability PPG Std0.05
Portability PPG Range0.08
Portability Score-6.82
Rest days0.00
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches-1
Short Rest Points Per Match-0.30
Normal Rest History Matches5
Normal Rest Points Per Match0.01
Long Rest History Matches-4
Long Rest Points Per Match-0.23
Current Team ELO-32.58
Current Opponent ELO32.58
Current ELO Difference-65.16
Expected score-0.09
History Matches0
Residual Mean-0.02
Overperformance-1.75
Recent 10 Residual Mean-0.02

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Dimitrovgrad

W
Dimitrovgrad4–1Gigant Saedinenie31 Oct · home
Pick: Gigant Saedinenie 40% · missed
W
Levski Karlovo0–3Dimitrovgrad24 Oct · away
Pick: Levski Karlovo 44% · missed
W
Dimitrovgrad5–1Rodopa Smolyan17 Oct · home
Pick: Rodopa Smolyan 41% · missed
L
Sozopol3–1Dimitrovgrad29 Aug · away
Pick: Sozopol 53% · hit
Earlier results appear as match history is added

Atletik Kuklen

W
Atletik Kuklen2–0Levski Karlovo31 Oct · home
Pick: Atletik Kuklen 51% · hit
L
Rodopa Smolyan1–0Atletik Kuklen24 Oct · away
Pick: Rodopa Smolyan 56% · hit
Earlier results appear as match history is added

About this match

Dimitrovgrad and Atletik Kuklen meet in Third League - Southeast on Saturday 7 November 2026, kickoff 12:30 UTC. ScoreProb published its prediction on 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC: Dimitrovgrad win 49.3%, draw 21.7%, Atletik Kuklen win 29.0%. The pick is Dimitrovgrad win. Over 2.5 goals: 64.1%. Both teams to score: 60.4%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.