ScoreProb
Third League - Southeast Bulgaria Southeast - 14 2026

Rozova dolina vs Levski Krumovgrad

Rozova dolina Home · Elo 1,495
Sat 7 Nov
UTC
Not started
Levski Krumovgrad Away · Elo 1,467
Venue to be confirmed Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Rozova dolina win
Rozova dolina winPick
54.0%
Draw
22.2%
Levski Krumovgrad win
23.8%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Lineups · not provided for this competition by our data source
Live score and events · the live score only: events are not provided for this competition by our data source
Live stats · not provided for this competition by our data source
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes48.2%
No51.8%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.551.4%
Under 2.548.6%

How much we know

Rozova dolina history60 matches
Levski Krumovgrad history23 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 3 h ahead
    1 Nov · 08:41 UTC
  2. Re-published 11 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 4 Nov · 07:21 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    7 Nov · 12:30 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 50–59% band (54.0%). Picks in that band won 55.8% of the time, and the model said 54.4% on average, over 3,719 matches.

Why Rozova dolina are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • Rozova dolina are rated 28 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,495 against 1,467. On rating alone Rozova dolina would be expected to take 54% of the points on offer.

  • Rozova dolina score far more

    1.20 goals a game over 60 matches for Rozova dolina, against 0.74 over 23 for Levski Krumovgrad.

  • Defences are close

    Rozova dolina concede 1.40 a game, Levski Krumovgrad 1.35.

  • Rozova dolina games more often go over 2.5 goals

    47% of Rozova dolina matches, against 35% for Levski Krumovgrad. The model puts this match at 51% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 23 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Rozova dolina
Levski Krumovgrad
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1495.3
ELO
1466.8
60
ELO · Matches
23
1495.3
Current Team ELO
1466.8
1466.8
Current Opponent ELO
1495.3
28.45
Current ELO Difference
-28.45
0.54
Expected score
0.46
60
History Matches
23
-0.01
Residual Mean
-0.08
49.30
Overperformance
45.55
0.02
Recent 10 Residual Mean
-0.07
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
1.20
PPG
1.80
1.40
Goals for per game
1.80
1.60
Goals against per game
1.60
20.0%
Win rate
60.0%
10
Matches
10
1.20
PPG
1.20
1.10
Goals for per game
1.20
2.00
Goals against per game
1.80
30.0%
Win rate
40.0%
1.10
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.20
0.70
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.47
2.00
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.80
1.55
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.17
0.99
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.61
1.87
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.96
Overall performance9 signals
90
60
Matches
23
1.28
PPG
1.09
33.3%
Win rate
30.4%
28.3%
Draw rate
17.4%
38.3%
Loss rate
52.2%
70.0%
Over 1.5 rate
47.8%
46.7%
Over 2.5 rate
34.8%
28.3%
Over 3.5 rate
21.7%
1.77
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.63
Venue performance10 signals
100
28
Matches
13
1.71
PPG
1.08
50.0%
Win rate
30.8%
21.4%
Draw rate
15.4%
28.6%
Loss rate
53.8%
75.0%
Over 1.5 rate
46.2%
53.6%
Over 2.5 rate
38.5%
25.0%
Over 3.5 rate
23.1%
1.59
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.73
28
History Matches
13
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
1.20
Goals for per game
0.74
68.3%
Scoring rate
43.5%
50.0%
BTTS rate
26.1%
1.46
Goals for per game
0.69
75.0%
Scoring rate
38.5%
50.0%
BTTS rate
23.1%
1.33
Goals for per game
2.67
100.0%
Scoring rate
100.0%
100.0%
BTTS rate
66.7%
60
History Matches
23
1.20
Goals Mean
0.74
1.12
Goals Std
1.11
68.3%
Scored 1+ rate
43.5%
35.0%
Scored 2+ rate
13.0%
11.7%
Scored 3+ rate
13.0%
1.46
Venue Goals Mean
0.69
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
1.40
Goals against per game
1.35
71.7%
Conceding rate
69.6%
1.11
Goals against per game
1.31
67.9%
Conceding rate
69.2%
1.33
Goals against per game
1.33
100.0%
Conceding rate
66.7%
60
History Matches
23
1.40
Conceded Mean
1.35
1.34
Conceded Std
1.27
36.7%
Conceded 2+ rate
34.8%
18.3%
Conceded 3+ rate
21.7%
1.11
Venue Conceded Mean
1.31
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
28.3%
Clean-sheet rate
30.4%
31.7%
Failed-to-score rate
56.5%
32.1%
Clean-sheet rate
30.8%
25.0%
Failed-to-score rate
61.5%
0.0%
Clean-sheet rate
33.3%
0.0%
Failed-to-score rate
0.0%
28.3%
Clean-sheet rate
30.4%
31.7%
Failed-to-score rate
56.5%
32.1%
Clean-sheet rate
30.8%
25.0%
Failed-to-score rate
61.5%
28.3%
Clean-sheet rate
30.4%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
60
History Matches
23
0.99
Result entropy
0.92
1.77
Goal Difference Std
1.63
0.69
Stability score
8.46
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
27
Eligible Matches
21
7
Lead Matches
4
42.9%
Lead Win Rate
100.0%
0.62
Lead Points Retention
1.00
6
Trailing Matches
10
33.3%
Non-loss rate
10.0%
0.0%
Trailing Win Rate
0.0%
Goal timing5 signals
50
27
Halftime Coverage Matches
21
0.48
First Half Goals For Mean
0.38
0.59
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.81
0.44
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.38
0.85
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.62
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
76.90
Rest days
76.90
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
7
Short Rest History Matches
2
1.00
Short Rest Points Per Match
1.50
39
Normal Rest History Matches
13
1.33
Normal Rest Points Per Match
0.85
13
Long Rest History Matches
7
1.38
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.14
Competition & season17 signals
170
3
Matches
3
1.00
PPG
3.00
0.0%
Win rate
100.0%
100.0%
Draw rate
0.0%
0.0%
Loss rate
0.0%
100.0%
Over 1.5 rate
66.7%
33.3%
Over 2.5 rate
66.7%
33.3%
Over 3.5 rate
66.7%
0.00
Goal difference · Standard deviation
0.47
3
Current Competition Matches
3
1.00
Current Competition PPG
3.00
0.00
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
1.33
5
Competition Season Count
3
4
Eligible Competition Season Count
2
0.57
Portability PPG Std
1.14
1.47
Portability PPG Range
2.28
46.84
Portability Score
30.51
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
60
Clean History Matches
23
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
ELO28.45
PPG0.20
GF0.46
GA0.05
PPG-2.00
PPG0.64
PPG-0.60
PPG0.00
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches37
Clean-sheet rate-0.02
Failed-to-score rate-0.25
History Matches15
Clean-sheet rate1.4%
Failed-to-score rate-0.37
History Matches37
Goals Mean0.46
Goals Std0.01
Scored 1+ rate24.9%
Scored 2+ rate22.0%
Scored 3+ rate-0.01
Venue Goals Mean0.77
Recent 10 Goals Mean-0.10
Recent 10 Goals Std-0.77
History Matches37
Conceded Mean0.05
Conceded Std0.07
Clean-sheet rate-0.02
Conceded 2+ rate1.9%
Conceded 3+ rate-0.03
Venue Conceded Mean-0.20
Recent 10 Conceded Mean0.20
Recent 10 Conceded Std0.38
History Matches37
Result entropy0.08
Goal Difference Std0.13
Stability score-7.77
Recent 10 Result Entropy0.38
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std-0.09
Eligible Matches6
Lead Matches3
Lead Win Rate-0.57
Lead Points Retention-0.38
Trailing Matches-4
Non-loss rate23.3%
Trailing Win Rate0.0%
Halftime Coverage Matches6
First Half Goals For Mean0.10
First Half Goals Against Mean-0.22
Second Half Goals For Mean0.06
Second Half Goals Against Mean0.23
Current Competition Matches0
Current Competition PPG-2.00
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean-1.33
Competition Season Count2
Eligible Competition Season Count2
Portability PPG Std-0.57
Portability PPG Range-0.81
Portability Score16.33
Rest days0.00
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches5
Short Rest Points Per Match-0.50
Normal Rest History Matches26
Normal Rest Points Per Match0.49
Long Rest History Matches6
Long Rest Points Per Match0.24
Current Team ELO28.45
Current Opponent ELO-28.45
Current ELO Difference56.91
Expected score0.08
History Matches37
Residual Mean0.07
Overperformance3.75
Recent 10 Residual Mean0.09

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Rozova dolina

L
Maritsa Milevo2–0Rozova dolina31 Oct · away
Pick: Maritsa Milevo 43% · hit
W
Rozova dolina4–3Sekirovo Rakovski24 Oct · home
Pick: Rozova dolina 54% · hit
W
Rozova dolina2–0Maritsa Plovdiv29 Aug · home
Pick: Rozova dolina 54% · hit
Earlier results appear as match history is added

Levski Krumovgrad

W
Levski Krumovgrad4–0Sayana Haskovo31 Oct · home
Pick: Levski Krumovgrad 41% · hit
W
Yambol 19152–3Levski Krumovgrad24 Oct · away
Pick: Yambol 1915 55% · missed
W
Levski Krumovgrad6–0Lokomotiv Plovdiv II21 Oct · home
Pick: Levski Krumovgrad 60% · hit
W
Levski Krumovgrad2–1Zagorets17 Oct · home
Pick: Levski Krumovgrad 50% · hit
W
Levski Krumovgrad4–2Neftochimic Burgas29 Aug · home
Pick: Levski Krumovgrad 51% · hit

About this match

Rozova dolina and Levski Krumovgrad meet in Third League - Southeast on Saturday 7 November 2026, kickoff 12:30 UTC. ScoreProb published its prediction on 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC: Rozova dolina win 54.0%, draw 22.2%, Levski Krumovgrad win 23.8%. The pick is Rozova dolina win. Over 2.5 goals: 51.4%. Both teams to score: 48.2%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.