ScoreProb
Liga Nacional Guatemala Round 19 2026

Marquense vs Comunicaciones

Marquense Home · Elo 1,482
Sun 8 Nov
UTC
Not started
Comunicaciones Away · Elo 1,481
Estadio Marquesa de la Ensenada, San Marcos Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 2 Nov, 08:51 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Marquense win
Marquense winPick
47.6%
Draw
27.6%
Comunicaciones win
24.8%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Lineups · on the pitch, about an hour before kickoff
Live score and events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Live stats · not provided for this competition by our data source
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes49.4%
No50.6%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.544.0%
Under 2.556.0%

How much we know

Marquense history64 matches
Comunicaciones history56 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 5 d 17 h ahead
    2 Nov · 08:51 UTC
  2. Re-published 2 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 2 Nov · 20:35 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    8 Nov · 02:00 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 40–49% band (47.6%). Picks in that band won 45.4% of the time, and the model said 44.8% on average, over 6,162 matches.

Why Marquense are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • The Elo ratings are level

    Elo 1,482 against 1,481. On rating alone the teams are close to even.

  • Comunicaciones score more

    0.94 goals a game over 64 matches for Marquense, against 1.09 over 56 for Comunicaciones.

  • Marquense concede fewer

    Marquense concede 1.20 a game, Comunicaciones 1.34.

  • Both teams play a similar number of high-scoring games

    41% of Marquense matches, against 45% for Comunicaciones. The model puts this match at 44% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 24 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Marquense
Comunicaciones
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1482.4
ELO
1480.6
64
ELO · Matches
56
1482.4
Current Team ELO
1480.6
1480.6
Current Opponent ELO
1482.4
1.77
Current ELO Difference
-1.77
0.50
Expected score
0.50
64
History Matches
56
-0.01
Residual Mean
-0.04
49.25
Overperformance
47.10
-0.03
Recent 10 Residual Mean
-0.05
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
1.20
PPG
1.40
1.20
Goals for per game
1.20
1.60
Goals against per game
1.40
40.0%
Win rate
40.0%
10
Matches
10
1.20
PPG
1.10
1.10
Goals for per game
1.20
1.70
Goals against per game
1.50
40.0%
Win rate
30.0%
1.10
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.20
0.94
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.25
1.70
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.50
1.27
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.12
0.61
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.94
1.96
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.49
Overall performance9 signals
90
64
Matches
56
1.22
PPG
1.21
32.8%
Win rate
33.9%
23.4%
Draw rate
19.6%
43.8%
Loss rate
46.4%
64.1%
Over 1.5 rate
64.3%
40.6%
Over 2.5 rate
44.6%
14.1%
Over 3.5 rate
28.6%
1.47
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.38
Venue performance10 signals
100
33
Matches
35
1.91
PPG
0.69
54.5%
Win rate
14.3%
27.3%
Draw rate
25.7%
18.2%
Loss rate
60.0%
63.6%
Over 1.5 rate
62.9%
36.4%
Over 2.5 rate
37.1%
15.2%
Over 3.5 rate
25.7%
1.26
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.13
33
History Matches
35
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
0.94
Goals for per game
1.09
64.1%
Scoring rate
64.3%
43.8%
BTTS rate
48.2%
1.30
Goals for per game
0.74
81.8%
Scoring rate
48.6%
45.5%
BTTS rate
42.9%
1.20
Goals for per game
1.20
80.0%
Scoring rate
60.0%
80.0%
BTTS rate
40.0%
64
History Matches
56
0.94
Goals Mean
1.09
0.92
Goals Std
1.06
64.1%
Scored 1+ rate
64.3%
21.9%
Scored 2+ rate
32.1%
6.3%
Scored 3+ rate
8.9%
1.30
Venue Goals Mean
0.74
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
1.20
Goals against per game
1.34
68.8%
Conceding rate
76.8%
0.79
Goals against per game
1.49
51.5%
Conceding rate
82.9%
1.60
Goals against per game
1.40
100.0%
Conceding rate
60.0%
64
History Matches
56
1.20
Conceded Mean
1.34
1.08
Conceded Std
1.00
35.9%
Conceded 2+ rate
41.1%
12.5%
Conceded 3+ rate
16.1%
0.79
Venue Conceded Mean
1.49
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
31.3%
Clean-sheet rate
23.2%
35.9%
Failed-to-score rate
35.7%
48.5%
Clean-sheet rate
17.1%
18.2%
Failed-to-score rate
51.4%
0.0%
Clean-sheet rate
40.0%
20.0%
Failed-to-score rate
40.0%
31.3%
Clean-sheet rate
23.2%
35.9%
Failed-to-score rate
35.7%
48.5%
Clean-sheet rate
17.1%
18.2%
Failed-to-score rate
51.4%
31.3%
Clean-sheet rate
23.2%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
64
History Matches
56
0.97
Result entropy
0.95
1.47
Goal Difference Std
1.38
2.84
Stability score
5.09
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
64
Eligible Matches
56
13
Lead Matches
8
92.3%
Lead Win Rate
87.5%
0.92
Lead Points Retention
0.92
19
Trailing Matches
24
10.5%
Non-loss rate
25.0%
0.0%
Trailing Win Rate
12.5%
Goal timing5 signals
50
64
Halftime Coverage Matches
56
0.45
First Half Goals For Mean
0.36
0.61
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.71
0.48
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.73
0.59
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.63
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
76.08
Rest days
77.08
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
8
Short Rest History Matches
8
0.50
Short Rest Points Per Match
1.13
33
Normal Rest History Matches
28
1.61
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.32
22
Long Rest History Matches
19
0.82
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.11
Competition & season17 signals
170
5
Matches
5
1.20
PPG
1.40
40.0%
Win rate
40.0%
0.0%
Draw rate
20.0%
60.0%
Loss rate
40.0%
80.0%
Over 1.5 rate
60.0%
80.0%
Over 2.5 rate
40.0%
20.0%
Over 3.5 rate
40.0%
1.20
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.60
5
Current Competition Matches
5
1.20
Current Competition PPG
1.40
-0.40
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
-0.20
3
Competition Season Count
3
3
Eligible Competition Season Count
3
0.04
Portability PPG Std
0.20
0.09
Portability PPG Range
0.48
93.00
Portability Score
71.30
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
64
Clean History Matches
56
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
ELO1.77
PPG0.00
GF-0.15
GA-0.14
PPG-0.20
PPG1.22
PPG-0.20
PPG0.10
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches8
Clean-sheet rate8.0%
Failed-to-score rate0.2%
History Matches-2
Clean-sheet rate31.3%
Failed-to-score rate-0.33
History Matches8
Goals Mean-0.15
Goals Std-0.14
Scored 1+ rate0.00
Scored 2+ rate-0.10
Scored 3+ rate-0.03
Venue Goals Mean0.56
Recent 10 Goals Mean-0.10
Recent 10 Goals Std-0.31
History Matches8
Conceded Mean-0.14
Conceded Std0.07
Clean-sheet rate8.0%
Conceded 2+ rate-0.05
Conceded 3+ rate-0.04
Venue Conceded Mean-0.70
Recent 10 Conceded Mean0.20
Recent 10 Conceded Std0.15
History Matches8
Result entropy0.02
Goal Difference Std0.09
Stability score-2.25
Recent 10 Result Entropy-0.32
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std0.47
Eligible Matches8
Lead Matches5
Lead Win Rate4.8%
Lead Points Retention0.01
Trailing Matches-5
Non-loss rate-0.14
Trailing Win Rate-0.13
Halftime Coverage Matches8
First Half Goals For Mean0.10
First Half Goals Against Mean-0.10
Second Half Goals For Mean-0.25
Second Half Goals Against Mean-0.03
Current Competition Matches0
Current Competition PPG-0.20
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean-0.20
Competition Season Count0
Eligible Competition Season Count0
Portability PPG Std-0.16
Portability PPG Range-0.39
Portability Score21.70
Rest days-1.00
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches0
Short Rest Points Per Match-0.63
Normal Rest History Matches5
Normal Rest Points Per Match0.28
Long Rest History Matches3
Long Rest Points Per Match-0.29
Current Team ELO1.77
Current Opponent ELO-1.77
Current ELO Difference3.55
Expected score0.01
History Matches8
Residual Mean0.03
Overperformance2.16
Recent 10 Residual Mean0.02

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Marquense

L
Xelajú2–0Marquense3 Nov · away
Pick: Xelajú 56% · hit
D
Marquense0–0Guastatoya30 Oct · home
Pick: Marquense 38% · missed
L
Cobán Imperial3–1Marquense25 Oct · away
Pick: Cobán Imperial 50% · hit
W
Marquense2–1Suchitepéquez19 Oct · home
Pick: Marquense 66% · hit
D
Marquense1–1Mixco15 Oct · home
Pick: Mixco 37% · missed

Comunicaciones

W
Comunicaciones3–1Mixco2 Nov · home
Pick: Mixco 39% · missed
L
Municipal3–1Comunicaciones29 Oct · away
Pick: Municipal 64% · hit
W
Comunicaciones1–0Antigua GFC25 Oct · home
Pick: Antigua GFC 61% · missed
L
Comunicaciones1–2Aurora14 Oct · home
Pick: Comunicaciones 43% · missed
W
Comunicaciones3–0Suchitepéquez5 Oct · home
Pick: Comunicaciones 68% · hit

About this match

Marquense and Comunicaciones meet in Liga Nacional on Sunday 8 November 2026, kickoff 02:00 UTC. The match is played at Estadio Marquesa de la Ensenada, San Marcos. ScoreProb published its prediction on 2 Nov, 08:51 UTC: Marquense win 47.6%, draw 27.6%, Comunicaciones win 24.8%. The pick is Marquense win. Over 2.5 goals: 44.0%. Both teams to score: 49.4%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.